JoMo Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 3 minutes ago, Cerakoter1984 said: Very true. The GFS brings the snow back this run but it's in central Texas. Lol. 00z GEM has a couple inches for AR/OK and S MO on the 4th-5th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 00z Euro with a winter storm around the 6th for S KS, S MO, OK/N AR. Some 6-8" amounts in there in OK and NW AR this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 1 hour ago, JoMo said: 00z Euro with a winter storm around the 6th for S KS, S MO, OK/N AR. Some 6-8" amounts in there in OK and NW AR this run. Wow. Nearing an ensemble mean of 2" for eastern OK into AR and the Control actually shifted a bit south this run. Nice stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 What does the EURO look like in terms of Arctic air. The GFS has sort of backed off a bit, displacing it more to our NW. Of course, that was just one run. The GFS has been all over the map on everything the last several weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 1 hour ago, Wx 24/7 said: What does the EURO look like in terms of Arctic air. The GFS has sort of backed off a bit, displacing it more to our NW. Of course, that was just one run. The GFS has been all over the map on everything the last several weeks. The mean is very cold through Jan 8th, and then it warms up the 9th through the 12th (end of run) because the trough pulls back to the NW. (-PNA) Today's run of the JMA is headed that direction as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 12z GEM with the completely different solution...... Strengthens a system in the west and drops it SE so after the cold air initial moves through, it warms up ahead of the system which is dropping SE. Snows pretty good over the NE 1/2 of MO. The colder air then dumps in behind. Might be just a GEM thing and the Euro won't follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 GEFS is still pretty awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 I'll take an order of E17, please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 2 minutes ago, Cerakoter1984 said: GEFS is still pretty awesome. Sheesh. A couple of those show heavy snow down to the Gulf Coast. In fact, more show that scenario than heavy snow where I live (Central OK). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 4 minutes ago, JoMo said: I'll take an order of E17, please I'll second that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 12z Euro has a bit of light snow on the 5th for mainly MO/KS. It has a different look to the trough in the west. Big trough in the center of the country in the later hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 2 minutes ago, JoMo said: 12z Euro has a bit of light snow on the 5th for mainly MO/KS. It has a different look to the trough in the west. Big trough in the center of the country in the later hours. Yeah. Not a fan. 3 runs in a row of good and now this. Lol. Waiting on the ENS control. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 5 minutes ago, Cerakoter1984 said: Yeah. Not a fan. 3 runs in a row of good and now this. Lol. Waiting on the ENS control. Shocking.. not. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 5 minutes ago, Spot said: Shocking.. not. lol Has to be a fluke run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 The winter of ill repute continues on. What a joke so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Just now, MoWeatherguy said: The winter of ill repute continues on. What a joke so far. Yep just as bad as last season if not worst so far with this crazy warmth! Its just bleh and boring so far. I don't trust anything these long range models show anymore until we hit 12-24 hours now before an event lol. It does appear to get colder but how long that sticks around who knows haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 4 minutes ago, NwWhiteOut said: Yep just as bad as last season if not worst so far with this crazy warmth! Its just bleh and boring so far. I don't trust anything these long range models show anymore until we hit 12-24 hours now before an event lol. It does appear to get colder but how long that sticks around who knows haha Yeah I'm afraid the pattern is set. Cold, dry, warm up rain a little. I remember JB used to say the weather in November the winter will remember. We're in trouble if that holds. I really didn't think it could get worse than last winter, but.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 It'll probably change before it gets here anyway. It changed from last night, and you have basically the 3 major models all showing different solutions at this point. I'm not sure why there wasn't a bigger overrunning response this run with a less positively tilted trough on the Euro. At this point, I wouldn't be surprised to see a big storm up in the Dakotas, a big storm that impacts our area, or nothing at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Just now, MoWeatherguy said: Yeah I'm afraid the pattern is set. Cold, dry, warm up rain a little. I remember JB used to say the weather in November the winter will remember. We're in trouble if that holds. I really didn't think it could get worse than last winter, but.. JB hasn't been the same in a long time. He's pretty bad at weather now. Before the big warm up happened before Christmas, he was saying the models were wrong and it's going to be cold. He had a giant rant on how wrong the JMA was, only to completely reverse himself 1-2 days later when the rest of the models went to the JMA. Today he said he likes the weather pattern and expects a big winter storm from the Southern Plains to I-95 coming up. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 12z Euro control still has the southern snow across OK/AR/S MO/S KS. Lots of different solutions still on the table with the individual ensemble members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 2 hours ago, MoWeatherguy said: Yeah I'm afraid the pattern is set. Cold, dry, warm up rain a little. I remember JB used to say the weather in November the winter will remember. We're in trouble if that holds. I really didn't think it could get worse than last winter, but.. It depends on when and how fast the pattern sets up. At the start of the season I posted 4 analog years in maps on here. While all different slightly they were more the same than not at that point in time. Some years advanced through the seasonal progression faster than others but in reality, most of your patterning begins in October, imo. They have all worked collectively the way I thought they would. The cold shots throughout the rest of winter were a guarantee but snow does not follow rules like rain does. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Annnnd we're back on the 18z GFS lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Just now, JoMo said: Annnnd we're back on the 18z GFS lol Just one time. That's all I'm asking for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 12 minutes ago, Cerakoter1984 said: Just one time. That's all I'm asking for. 18z GFS tease. lol Last time it had something like this it turned into a warm Christmas. ... not white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 34 minutes ago, Spot said: 18z GFS tease. lol Last time it had something like this it turned into a warm Christmas. ... not white. There's the positivity we're looking for!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Weeklies are a mess. There's probably a warmup just around/past Mid-Jan, and then more cold shots right after. I see -AO at times, -EPO at times, overall it looks like another period of flip a coin around/past mid-month and more toughing in the eastern US in Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Without holding too close to any specific model or model run, the pattern for late week looks conducive to winter weather of some sort. Don't know if it will be a "big deal" type of system, but it looks like we should wind up with some wintry weather out of the pattern. Details to still be worked out, of course... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 2 hours ago, JoMo said: Annnnd we're back on the 18z GFS lol We all know where hanging our hat on the 18z GFS tends to get us, but I'd take that in a heartbeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 1 hour ago, JoMo said: Weeklies are a mess. There's probably a warmup just around/past Mid-Jan, and then more cold shots right after. I see -AO at times, -EPO at times, overall it looks like another period of flip a coin around/past mid-month and more toughing in the eastern US in Feb. Yeah, I see a period in there where the cold could get into just the right spot later on down the road where we could all do really well but the snow maps don't support the idea. We do better it seems in times where the cold is right above or slightly east of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Well, still something to watch the 4th through the 6th or so according to the 00z GFS and the 00z GEM which now has a moderate event across OK/W AR/SW MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.