JoMo Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 54 minutes ago, Wx 24/7 said: Good morning! I received some money for Christmas that I want to put toward my weather addiction hobby. I have a nice home weather station and I have GRLevel so I don't need those. Anyone have any suggestions? I was thinking about a model subscription, but wasn't sure if you thought the subscription prices were worth it. Thanks in advance! Now back to your above average temps! If you get a subscription to one of the model providers, you will lose sleep. I can't tell you how many times I've stayed up just for the Euro, and once the Euro is finished, I'll think... 'well, the euro ensembles start to come out in another hour and I'd sure like to see what they show'. Granted, this is just during the winter months for me as I don't really use the Euro for severe weather and all that. If you do get a subscription, make sure you get one with the Euro data though. Do you have a smartphone? I'd recommend getting RadarScope as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 12z GEM brings the Arctic front through on Jan 3rd, and has chances of.. wintry weather on the 4th for some areas. 12z GFS has similar timing as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 6 minutes ago, JoMo said: 12z GEM brings the Arctic front through on Jan 3rd, and has chances of.. wintry weather on the 4th for some areas. 12z GFS has similar timing as well. GFS has started its typical "shearing out" trend with that storm this run. Should be a nice flurry blast by the time it gets here. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 59 minutes ago, JoMo said: If you get a subscription to one of the model providers, you will lose sleep. I can't tell you how many times I've stayed up just for the Euro, and once the Euro is finished, I'll think... 'well, the euro ensembles start to come out in another hour and I'd sure like to see what they show'. Granted, this is just during the winter months for me as I don't really use the Euro for severe weather and all that. If you do get a subscription, make sure you get one with the Euro data though. Do you have a smartphone? I'd recommend getting RadarScope as well. I have RadarScope. It is very good. If I get the subscription, I will make sure to include the EURO. Thanks for your suggestions! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 12z Euro has the Arctic front pushing through on the 3rd as well. From there, it's messy looking at 500 MB but there is overrunning snow on the 5th and 6th for parts of the area, subject to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 Good euro ensemble control. Could it be? Finally. Maybe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 1 hour ago, Cerakoter1984 said: Good euro ensemble control. Could it be? Finally. Maybe... lol nope its gonna change to warm and dry soon. Its the way of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 1 hour ago, Cerakoter1984 said: Good euro ensemble control. Could it be? Finally. Maybe... Way too early. You're gonna jinx it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 2 hours ago, JoMo said: Way too early. You're gonna jinx it! Sorry! Only negativity from here until it's 3 days away. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 48 minutes ago, Cerakoter1984 said: Sorry! Only negativity from here until it's 3 days away. Lol. 3 days? Still too far out! We'll just pretend nothing is going to happen until 12 hours before it happens, so we won't scare it off. Quick, Act casual... how about them Chiefs!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 00z GFS has a storm system on Jan 3rd, while the 00z GEM has one farther south on the 4th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 00z Euro with a big winter storm across OK/AR/S MO on the 5th. But *ahem* we won't mention that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 3 hours ago, JoMo said: 3 days? Still too far out! We'll just pretend nothing is going to happen until 12 hours before it happens, so we won't scare it off. Quick, Act casual... how about them Chiefs!? Lol. Chiefs are good! I've had them as my sleepers since the beginning of the season this year. Them and the Raiders but Carr is fubarred so I have to go with the Chiefs. I think I did pretty good for a Steelers fan. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Again, looks like another extended period below freezing is coming up for early in the new year. The cold has definitely come in waves this year. In between we have been plenty warm. That sounds an awful lot like Doug Heady's winter forecast. Models are in decent agreement on something wintry around that time, too, but it is too early to get excited. I do perk up, however, when Larry Cosgrove mentions an I-44 ice event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 We've had one ice event and that's enough for me. Bring on the snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 12z GFS is super cold with next arctic blast... but nothing much else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 12z Euro has a long duration generally light snowfall event (for the most part) on the 5th-6th for OK/AR/S MO, S KS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 3 hours ago, JoMo said: 12z Euro has a long duration generally light snowfall event (for the most part) on the 5th-6th for OK/AR/S MO, S KS. We just can't help it can we. Lol. Looks good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 This, from the TSA AFD, got my attention this afternoon: Quote Finally, looking longer term into week 2, there appears to be no significant change to the overall longwave pattern over the CONUS. In fact, at day 10 the new 12Z ECMWF shows yet more amplified ridging over Alaska with the upper jet stretching from near the North Pole due south down the western portion of NOAM. While there may be a day or two in there where we see some modification of arctic air, it is not inconceivable to see more intrusions of arctic air into the country week 2. The cold air looks like it may be here to stay for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Couple things. The Euro ensemble control has a big storm (amounts) over AR/OK/S MO on Jan 5th-6th. A lot of the Euro ensemble members have some kind of frozen in roughly the same area at the same time as well so that's good. Amounts vary and location varies but most members have a bit of something. Still too far out and too much can change though. The Euro ensemble is warming it up in the later hours (Day 13-15) because it's retrograding everything back to the NW. It's done this before and it hasn't happened or it's been pushed back so not sure if this is going to happen or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 18z GFS gets interesting for NE OK the 11th-13th. 2+ QPF, precip type mixed, total snow 1-10+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 39 minutes ago, Weatherdemon said: 18z GFS gets interesting for NE OK the 11th-13th. 2+ QPF, precip type mixed, total snow 1-10+. Digital storms are fun but I wouldn't put much stock in the 18z gfs at that range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 8 minutes ago, MUWX said: Digital storms are fun but I wouldn't put much stock in the 18z gfs at that range LOL, I know but last winter was virtually snowless so I'll take whatever sliver of hope there is in the long range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 9 minutes ago, MUWX said: Digital storms are fun but I wouldn't put much stock in the 18z gfs at that range Yeah. I usually don't post much on it. No upper air data is kinda a big deal to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 After some detrending of sorts for both the 12z Euro and GFS Ensembles for things we know won't happen like snowstorms being in Louisiana and snow getting through the SE ridge, I really like the overall odds with what realistic scenarios are on the table at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Saw this floating around on Twitter today.... Nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Yeah, that was the great looking control run from 12z today for the storm around the 5th-6th in our area included. Still a long way out to get excited though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 2 hours ago, Cerakoter1984 said: After some detrending of sorts for both the 12z Euro and GFS Ensembles for things we know won't happen like snowstorms being in Louisiana and snow getting through the SE ridge, I really like the overall odds with what realistic scenarios are on the table at this time. Yeah, no way the storms plow through the SE ridge. I just hope that they don't cut up across the Plains like the last one. We need a happy medium storm. An overrunning event looks most probable if we are to get something next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Well, the cold is coming either way with the -EPO. With the -PNA showing up, there should be at least periodic events of light overrunning precip possible even if we can't get a storm to spin up or form in the flow. If the -EPO goes away and we stay in the -PNA, we will more than likely warm back up, with the cold air located just to our NW again. The Euro has a west bias in the long range and is only the "King" when it comes to events at 5 days out. After that, it's skill falls off with the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 1 hour ago, JoMo said: Well, the cold is coming either way with the -EPO. With the -PNA showing up, there should be at least periodic events of light overrunning precip possible even if we can't get a storm to spin up or form in the flow. If the -EPO goes away and we stay in the -PNA, we will more than likely warm back up, with the cold air located just to our NW again. The Euro has a west bias in the long range and is only the "King" when it comes to events at 5 days out. After that, it's skill falls off with the other models. Very true. The GFS brings the snow back this run but it's in central Texas. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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