Cerakoter1984 Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 I'm not really getting excited/bent out of shape about anything yet. We're 18 days into a Winter that I could see going well into March depending on how well the Pacific holds up. May get very very close to subzero tonight at my location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 E9 on the 00z GEFS still with the southern track. Couple snow tracks around KC, couple up in the Nebraska and Dakotas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 00z Euro is way north as well. Severe weather for Christmas? :-\ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 12z GFS and 12z GEM both way north. Warm Christmas with thunderstorms possible, maybe severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 Weeklies later today to see if they continue to show a better pattern around Mid-Jan. Anything before that will probably be a fluke, unless the changes start taking place faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 60s on Christmas.. arrrg.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 34 minutes ago, Spot said: 60s on Christmas.. arrrg.. Yup gonna be disgusting! We are going to need boats too probly lol. Thought last year was bad at 49 haha, tulsa saying 60's and severe weather possible. Insane weird weather here for sure!!! Going from colddddd to warm lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 Probably more of a straight line wind threat as a wind shift line or pacific front or something moves through fairly fast even on the slower Euro. Not really much of a flooding risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 Sounds like we get a relaxation period until early/mid January and then could be back to cold for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 21 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: Sounds like we get a relaxation period until early/mid January and then could be back to cold for a while. Yeah, it's what the last 2 runs of the Weeklies have been showing. The Euro keeps the troughing in the west with a continued +EPO, +AO look until about mid-Jan when the trough moves to the central US and a -EPO builds. It's possible that may happen sooner or later than indicated though, but the weeklies were consistent with each other for 2 runs in a row. Should be able to see if they make it 3 in a row in about 4 hours or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 Weeklies today continue the trend of the last 2 runs with more of a -EPO towards Mid-Jan. Still not really seeing a -AO clearly that lasts. Might be some more -PNA issues as we head into early Feb (end of run) but the -EPO is still there. Temps out in about 45 mins. EDIT: No big changes in Weeklies temps... Above normal through Mid-Jan, and then below normal the rest of the run through 00z Feb 3rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 Well looks like the idea of a Christmas miracle went down real fast... could be breaching 60 or 65 on Christmas Day for many of us in KS/MO/OK it looks like ATTM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 11 hours ago, JoMo said: Weeklies today continue the trend of the last 2 runs with more of a -EPO towards Mid-Jan. Still not really seeing a -AO clearly that lasts. Might be some more -PNA issues as we head into early Feb (end of run) but the -EPO is still there. Temps out in about 45 mins. EDIT: No big changes in Weeklies temps... Above normal through Mid-Jan, and then below normal the rest of the run through 00z Feb 3rd. Could get a monster through here in late January if we can get a -NAO. Been really hard to do so far. The winter is still pretty young though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 12z GEM/GFS suggests a light mix possible Fri morning for some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 GFS also brings a pretty strong cold front through right before New Years Eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 6 hours ago, JoMo said: 12z GEM/GFS suggests a light mix possible Fri morning for some areas. Yea tulsa has this in the forecast now thursday night into friday morning before the blowtorch coming lol!!! Crazy weird weather indeed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 7 hours ago, The Waterboy said: GFS also brings a pretty strong cold front through right before New Years Eve. Pattern reload. As long as we keep the Pacific as-is, I wouldn't worry about a warm-up here and there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 While I am not a big fan of rain on Christmas, we are in need of moisture. So at least we are getting that! Here's hoping we get a nice January! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 Changes have been showing up on the last 2 Euro ensemble runs at the end of the run as we head into early Jan. It's wanting to pop a -EPO and the trough finally makes it back into the west instead of hanging out over the Pacific ocean. Hopefully these changes stick around and get closer in time so we build more cold air in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 8 hours ago, JoMo said: Changes have been showing up on the last 2 Euro ensemble runs at the end of the run as we head into early Jan. It's wanting to pop a -EPO and the trough finally makes it back into the west instead of hanging out over the Pacific ocean. Hopefully these changes stick around and get closer in time so we build more cold air in Canada. I saw a little of that on the run last night. Some take the cold across much more quickly than others when it loads back in as well. So far though good agreement on bringing cold back in for an ensemble from 15 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 12z Euro ensemble continued the trend of the -EPO but kept the troughing a bit farther west this run. So it kept the cold air across the northern Plains, western Canada and parts of the western US through the 5th. The control run went wild with a big -EPO, hints of a -AO and a huge trough with Arctic air spilling into our area on the 4th-5th. Probably a bit early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 00z NAM has us in the middle and upper 50s as we wake up on Christmas morning. Ho! Ho! Ho! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 2 hours ago, Wx 24/7 said: 00z NAM has us in the middle and upper 50s as we wake up on Christmas morning. Ho! Ho! Ho! Time to tear down all the cold weather Christmas decorations and put up the tropical Christmas decorations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 29 minutes ago, JoMo said: Time to tear down all the cold weather Christmas decorations and put up the tropical Christmas decorations. No kidding, just disgusting. This will be the first xmas for me in the 60's. Time to move to canada or alaska haha. Will probly be able to open windows xmas day too lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westhope84 Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 I'll be in southeastern Iowa for Christmas. It's truly absurd that even there it'll likely be in the 50s! May see a bit of snow on our way up on Saturday from the modest Friday-early Saturday system. I suppose we can still get into the spirit by imagining Christmas in Bethlehem... Plus, we did have a little pre-Christmas snow and cold, which is more than we can say for many years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 12z Euro ensemble continues to have a better look going into Jan as it builds cold across west Canada into the west and upper Plains. Weeklies this week changed a bit from the previous run. Keeping more of the trough in the west this run so the cold is probably around us or just to the NW. Lose the -EPO around mid-Jan for a bit before it comes back in late Jan and early Feb. Control looks pretty darn stormy with systems passing to our south a lot of the time. Hmm. Temps in a bit. Edit: 7 day average temps look above normal until probably after Jan 10th. From there we are riding the line through the end of the run 00z Feb 6th. Kansas looks to remains below normal much of the time, much of OK does as well. AR and MO may go above normal for a bit somewhere in there. Overall, not too bad. The Euro control has at least 3 snowstorms impacting our area during the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 Let's hope this thing turns around solidly in Jan and Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 Got a little sleet tonight south of Collinsville, OK. Guess that will be the last frozen precip of the year for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 Noticed the 12z GEM ensemble finally flipped to the -EPO look in the extended. It was stubborn and didn't want to flip until today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 Light sleet falling in monett. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.