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OK/AR/KS/MO Winter 2016-17 Winter Discussion


lookingnorth

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Hi everybody!! Member here for awhile, but only come out of hiding for winter storms! Lol Good luck to everyone! Here in Tulsa, maybe just a dusting but I'll be happy to see our first snowflakes of the season! Hoping Christmas or New Years storms pan out a little better though!

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4 minutes ago, KC metro said:

00z NAM less aggressive than GFS with 1-2" widespread and a very small band of 2-3" in east central  KS and west central MO just south of the KC metro. Ratios will be higher than 10:1 so totals may be underdone a little. 

The 4km nam is even less optimistic. One with isolated two up there. Sw mo gets flurries. Seems to have found so pretty significant dry air. 

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00z GFS very similar to the NAM. Widespread 1-2". A small band of 2-3" runs SW to NE across KS and NW MO. The main differences between the two are the band of a little heavier snow is over a larger area on the GFS and the band is a little farther north on the GFS. 

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00z Euro is a bit farther NW with the heavier precip but has a bit more precip in NW AR. Overall still a light event. Some area across SW KS to NE KS may get in a heavier band and pick up a few inches of snow

From there, things changed pretty drastically tonight, not just on the Euro but on the other models as well. After hr 144 or so on the Euro, it leaps to a very different solution than it's 12z run. The system that I suppose was the Christmas system is coming in much faster and farther north and it's not really a big deal. Going to be dry and cooler on Christmas this run with temps in the 40's for most except for some 30's in NE MO and around 50 in southern OK. 

 

EDIT: Euro control and a few ensemble members throw Spot a bone and have OK/AR getting snow on Christmas.

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Yesterday St. Louis experienced what is being called as the worst rush our commute in years and possibly ever according to some. Interstates were gridlocked, accidents everywhere including multiple school buses, kids stuck on buses, kids spending the night at school,  reports of commutes taking as long as 8 hours. I personally witnessed 2 school buses slide off the road. All of this with just freezing drizzle and fog and no measurable precipitation. 

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4 minutes ago, JoMo said:

12z GFS came back to reality with the snow amounts with just 1-2" showing up.

 

 

Think freezing drizzle is going to be the larger issue with this event. Followed by the wind chills. Still think some higher amounts may occur if snow rates go above 15:1.

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4 minutes ago, JoMo said:

12z GFS came back to reality with the snow amounts with just 1-2" showing up.

 

 

I saw that. For some reason local news in KC still going with 2-4" and perhaps more in St. Jospeh. They are looking at the higer resolution models and 20:1 ratios. We do have light snow now and already a dusting. 

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1 minute ago, KC metro said:

I saw that. For some reason local news in KC still going with 2-4" and perhaps more in St. Jospeh. They are looking at the higer resolution models and 20:1 ratios. We do have light snow now and already a dusting. 

Is already snowing in KC?

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7 minutes ago, Wx 24/7 said:

Think freezing drizzle is going to be the larger issue with this event. Followed by the wind chills. Still think some higher amounts may occur if snow rates go above 15:1.

Yeah, the freezing drizzle is actually pretty 'heavy' here, it has already coated everything and the roads are wet looking. 

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7 minutes ago, JoMo said:

12z GEM with an impressive snowstorm NW of I-44 in Kansas and Missouri with the Christmas system.......

12z GFS Both systems.... Spot still gets screwed I think, lol

gfs_asnow_scus_41.png

 

 

 

It's good to see both models with the storm.  GEM is much farther north with the low (Tulsa to north of Memphis track).  The GFS is in Northern AL.  

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1 hour ago, JoMo said:

12z GEM with an impressive snowstorm NW of I-44 in Kansas and Missouri with the Christmas system.......

12z GFS Both systems.... Spot still gets screwed I think, lol

gfs_asnow_scus_41.png

 

 

 

Pretty much. it needs to move west. lol..   but you know it prob verify in NW OK or somewhere else so whatever.

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