ouamber Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Hi everybody!! Member here for awhile, but only come out of hiding for winter storms! Lol Good luck to everyone! Here in Tulsa, maybe just a dusting but I'll be happy to see our first snowflakes of the season! Hoping Christmas or New Years storms pan out a little better though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 -30 degree temp changes in the last 3 hours in the OK PH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC metro Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 18z GFS not quite as wet as 12z. I believe we are looking at a solid band of 2-4" across the KC metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 39 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: Spot/NwWhiteOut - I can't remember where you both are located. Im in Fayetteville ar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 Temperature gradient in SW KS/OK PH vs TX PH is insane. 36 at LBL (Liberal) and 72 at PYX (Perryton ) in TX. Distance between PYX & LBL is ~40 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC metro Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 00z NAM less aggressive than GFS with 1-2" widespread and a very small band of 2-3" in east central KS and west central MO just south of the KC metro. Ratios will be higher than 10:1 so totals may be underdone a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 4 minutes ago, KC metro said: 00z NAM less aggressive than GFS with 1-2" widespread and a very small band of 2-3" in east central KS and west central MO just south of the KC metro. Ratios will be higher than 10:1 so totals may be underdone a little. The 4km nam is even less optimistic. One with isolated two up there. Sw mo gets flurries. Seems to have found so pretty significant dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 Still hoping for some flurries at least to look at . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 Just now, Spot said: Still hoping for some flurries at least to look at . Probably have to take a flashlight outside and shine it around, hoping to catch one or two by that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 12 minutes ago, JoMo said: Probably have to take a flashlight outside and shine it around, hoping to catch one or two by that time. Unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC metro Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 00z GFS very similar to the NAM. Widespread 1-2". A small band of 2-3" runs SW to NE across KS and NW MO. The main differences between the two are the band of a little heavier snow is over a larger area on the GFS and the band is a little farther north on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 00z Euro is a bit farther NW with the heavier precip but has a bit more precip in NW AR. Overall still a light event. Some area across SW KS to NE KS may get in a heavier band and pick up a few inches of snow From there, things changed pretty drastically tonight, not just on the Euro but on the other models as well. After hr 144 or so on the Euro, it leaps to a very different solution than it's 12z run. The system that I suppose was the Christmas system is coming in much faster and farther north and it's not really a big deal. Going to be dry and cooler on Christmas this run with temps in the 40's for most except for some 30's in NE MO and around 50 in southern OK. EDIT: Euro control and a few ensemble members throw Spot a bone and have OK/AR getting snow on Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 Nws Tulsa has winter weather adv for me...are they serious or what man.. From all in seeing I'm lucky to get flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 Yesterday St. Louis experienced what is being called as the worst rush our commute in years and possibly ever according to some. Interstates were gridlocked, accidents everywhere including multiple school buses, kids stuck on buses, kids spending the night at school, reports of commutes taking as long as 8 hours. I personally witnessed 2 school buses slide off the road. All of this with just freezing drizzle and fog and no measurable precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 12z GFS came back to reality with the snow amounts with just 1-2" showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 3 minutes ago, JoMo said: 12z GFS came back to reality with the snow amounts with just 1-2" showing up. lol @ "Just" I would take half of one.. or anything at this point down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 4 minutes ago, JoMo said: 12z GFS came back to reality with the snow amounts with just 1-2" showing up. Think freezing drizzle is going to be the larger issue with this event. Followed by the wind chills. Still think some higher amounts may occur if snow rates go above 15:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC metro Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 4 minutes ago, JoMo said: 12z GFS came back to reality with the snow amounts with just 1-2" showing up. I saw that. For some reason local news in KC still going with 2-4" and perhaps more in St. Jospeh. They are looking at the higer resolution models and 20:1 ratios. We do have light snow now and already a dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 1 minute ago, KC metro said: I saw that. For some reason local news in KC still going with 2-4" and perhaps more in St. Jospeh. They are looking at the higer resolution models and 20:1 ratios. We do have light snow now and already a dusting. Is already snowing in KC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC metro Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 2 minutes ago, Spot said: Is already snowing in KC? Yep! It started about 15 minutes ago and there is a dusting on decks and roof tops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 7 minutes ago, Wx 24/7 said: Think freezing drizzle is going to be the larger issue with this event. Followed by the wind chills. Still think some higher amounts may occur if snow rates go above 15:1. Yeah, the freezing drizzle is actually pretty 'heavy' here, it has already coated everything and the roads are wet looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 NW AR and Southern MO may get in on a little snow or something on this 12z GFS run with the Christmas system. Models seem to be having a hard time with what to do with the energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 Umm ok so a winter weather advisory is in effect here, lol. Man that temp is dropping way sooner than expected too! Already down to 38 out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 12z GEM with an impressive snowstorm NW of I-44 in Kansas and Missouri with the Christmas system....... 12z GFS Both systems.... Spot still gets screwed I think, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 7 minutes ago, JoMo said: 12z GEM with an impressive snowstorm NW of I-44 in Kansas and Missouri with the Christmas system....... 12z GFS Both systems.... Spot still gets screwed I think, lol It's good to see both models with the storm. GEM is much farther north with the low (Tulsa to north of Memphis track). The GFS is in Northern AL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 52 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: It's good to see both models with the storm. GEM is much farther north with the low (Tulsa to north of Memphis track). The GFS is in Northern AL. Arrgg.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 1 hour ago, JoMo said: 12z GEM with an impressive snowstorm NW of I-44 in Kansas and Missouri with the Christmas system....... 12z GFS Both systems.... Spot still gets screwed I think, lol Pretty much. it needs to move west. lol.. but you know it prob verify in NW OK or somewhere else so whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 JoMo...what's it like there? Still freezing drizzle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 3 minutes ago, Wx 24/7 said: JoMo...what's it like there? Still freezing drizzle? 28 with a heavy drizzle IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 12z Euro backed off on precip a bit, and gives NW AR pretty much nothing for today's system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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