KC metro Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 12z NAM has come around to the GFS solution. Widespread 2-3" snows are expected in a band from SW to NE over east central KS through MO from KC southward. One thing to remember is that ratios will be greater than 10:1 so the accumulation output may be lower than actual totals. 12z GFS out soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Good luck up there. I hope to see flurries from it. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC metro Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 12Z GFS is consistent with 00z run. Actually it's a little wetter. Some areas showing 5" and it would be right over the KC metro according to this model. This is consistent with the NWS comments that omegas will be maxed out right over KC. This band could shift north or south but for right now widespread 2-3" totals appear likely with possible higer amounts somewhere in or near KC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 1 hour ago, Spot said: Good luck up there. I hope to see flurries from it. lol Yep probly all we will see Im sure, if that lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 12z GFS with a trough on the Christmas storm and the 12z Canadian with a 997 low around KC. Hmm. In other news, the JAMSTEC finally changed to colder, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 So whats that mean JoMo, maybe colder? I wish I could understand all this stuff, my pea brain just cant learn it though lol. A low in Kc cant be good for here, way too far north I would think right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 10 minutes ago, NwWhiteOut said: So whats that mean JoMo, maybe colder? I wish I could understand all this stuff, my pea brain just cant learn it though lol. A low in Kc cant be good for here, way too far north I would think right? Yeah, the low up near KC wouldn't be good for here/down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 12z Euro has no big changes to the weekend system. Little wetter in NW MO and NE KS but amounts are still near 2" of snow on the map. Looks like temps might be in the teens and low twenties when the snow is falling so ratios might be higher than 10:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 1 minute ago, JoMo said: 12z Euro has no big changes to the weekend system. Little wetter in NW MO and NE KS but amounts are still near 2" of snow on the map. Looks like temps might be in the teens and low twenties when the snow is falling so ratios might be higher than 10:1. Much of anything for you or me or just flurries? Can we even squeeze out an inch or so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 6 minutes ago, JoMo said: 12z Euro has no big changes to the weekend system. Little wetter in NW MO and NE KS but amounts are still near 2" of snow on the map. Looks like temps might be in the teens and low twenties when the snow is falling so ratios might be higher than 10:1. Much of anything for you or me or just flurries? Can we even squeeze out an inch or so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 1 minute ago, The Waterboy said: Much of anything for you or me or just flurries? Can we even squeeze out an inch or so? I'd say flurries but you never know. It's just not real promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC metro Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 32 minutes ago, JoMo said: 12z Euro has no big changes to the weekend system. Little wetter in NW MO and NE KS but amounts are still near 2" of snow on the map. Looks like temps might be in the teens and low twenties when the snow is falling so ratios might be higher than 10:1. Agree. NAM and Euro are closer on amounts. GFS is the wettest of the three. Because of ratios of 15:1 to 25:1 it's probably likely that some spots will get 3-4". Blowing snow could cause some driving issues with winds in the 20-30mph range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Christmas is going to be nice and toasty this run on the 12z Euro. Looks like temps in the mid-50's to around 60 for everyone but NW KS. Chances of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Just now, JoMo said: Christmas is going to be nice and toasty this run on the 12z Euro. Looks like temps in the mid-50's to around 60 for everyone but NW KS. Chances of rain. Ugh its looking more and more likely. This really does, well yea ya know lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwolfe904 Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Will KC metro area get a Winter Storm Warning or do they wait til last minute here? ( sorry, moved from NC and you get one with practically any snow there) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Just now, kwolfe904 said: Will KC metro area get a Winter Storm Warning or do they wait til last minute here? ( sorry, moved from NC and you get one with practically any snow there) Not sure if it will be warning criteria for up there, Kc is fairly good with their forecasting and will update it if it seems appropriate. Probably advisory for now I would say unless more is expected to fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 5 minutes ago, kwolfe904 said: Will KC metro area get a Winter Storm Warning or do they wait til last minute here? ( sorry, moved from NC and you get one with practically any snow there) I doubt you meet winter storm warning criteria. I would be very surprised to see a warning. If it happens it would likely be mid event if it appears it is going to over preform Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC metro Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 14 minutes ago, kwolfe904 said: Will KC metro area get a Winter Storm Warning or do they wait til last minute here? ( sorry, moved from NC and you get one with practically any snow there) I moved here from Alabama where the warning criteria is much lower. Here in KC I believe it has to be 6" within 12 hours and 8" within 24 hours so I expect a winter weather advisory. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC metro Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 18z NAM is out. Widespread 1-2" totals and 2-3" in a band across east central KS and west central MO from KC southward. You could potentially add another 1" to these totals because of higher ratios than 10:1. The models are fairly in line with the GFS being a bit of an outlier with the higher totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 More than likely just a Winter Weather Advisory up that way, unless they upgrade it to a warning in a narrow band if the snowfall gets heavy enough. This will also be the first widespread snow and with cold temps and winds, they may also upgrade it due to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 NWS says a dusting to 1/2 inch IMBY. Yay snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Just now, JoMo said: NWS says a dusting to 1/2 inch IMBY. Yay snow. Enjoy it if it happens, looks like its back to a 30 percent chance here from 7pm-1am tomorrow. LOL I will believe that when I see it happen, going to be cold enough probly for sure! But it may be too dry idk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 18z GFS is slightly (and I use that term loosely) more robust into Northern AR. Maybe that's a good sign. I'm grasping at straws at this point and will take anything we can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 7 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: 18z GFS is slightly (and I use that term loosely) more robust into Northern AR. Maybe that's a good sign. I'm grasping at straws at this point and will take anything we can get. I agree. I was trying to write it off here in monett but the 18z was better. Maybe a new trend and with higher ratios we could be surprised. Not getting my hopes too high based on the 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Looks like the 18z Canadian continues to be way more robust with precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 24 minutes ago, MUWX said: I agree. I was trying to write it off here in monett but the 18z was better. Maybe a new trend and with higher ratios we could be surprised. Not getting my hopes too high based on the 18z. If you are home then the snow is all going to fall in Columbia. All kidding aside, with ratios higher than 10:1, the snowfall totals from the NWS SGF look a little underdone to me. This is especially true along and north of I-44 on the MO side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Sounds like tulsa is thinking this may actually turn into something for here, lets see if this changes tomorrow lol. Percentages are being upped for tom. night. Hmmmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 16 minutes ago, NwWhiteOut said: Sounds like tulsa is thinking this may actually turn into something for here, lets see if this changes tomorrow lol. Percentages are being upped for tom. night. Hmmmmmm lol maybe so.. I still expect flurries here. Go west or north and you have something.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Spot/NwWhiteOut - I can't remember where you both are located. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Sometimes tv weather people bother me by their lack of scientific understanding or their inability to present what they know. I guess I am spoiled. I'll hop off my soapbox now. I just get spoiled by some and when they aren't on, I am disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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