Spot Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 2 hours ago, Cerakoter1984 said: I'm so sick of seeing storms become cutters. It just doesn't matter anymore it seems like. Nino=NW shift. Niña? NW shift. Unreal. Same pattern so far as last year, just colder. IKR. Lakes cutters is about all that happens now days. If its not a lakes cutter.. its stuck SW somewhere never to be seen, its sheared away or squashed down into the gulf its seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 1 hour ago, Spot said: IKR. Lakes cutters is about all that happens now days. If its not a lakes cutter.. its stuck SW somewhere never to be seen, its sheared away or squashed down into the gulf its seems. Yeah. And we have a nice warm northern GOM just sitting down there waiting to be tapped into but the only time any moisture returns off it is about the time the cutters hit Chicago. It really has become frustrating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 18z GFS is a bit beefier with the precip and a smidge farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 If the 18Z GFS were to verify, that'd be a big problem for the NWS in KC, they've been downplaying snow totals quite a bit. (And rightfully so...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwolfe904 Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 I just checked NOAA and I'm just outside of KC and it just says possible snow and freezing drizzle accumulation less than 1/10 inch. Must be talking about ice. I thought we'd get more snow than that. Weather Channel app says 3-5", as well as Storm App, and AccuWeather app says 2-4" total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 6 minutes ago, kwolfe904 said: I just checked NOAA and I'm just outside of KC and it just says possible snow and freezing drizzle accumulation less than 1/10 inch. Must be talking about ice. I thought we'd get more snow than that. Weather Channel app says 3-5", as well as Storm App, and AccuWeather app says 2-4" total. Guess you can tell which apps are using the GFS for input. I think the GFS is probably overdoing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 Any idea when the storm first gets sampled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 2 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: Any idea when the storm first gets sampled? Tomorrow morning or afternoon, probably fully sampled tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 Anyone getting a kayak or canoe for Christmas? Insane rain totals on Christmas this run. What is that, about 7" for me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 The gfs is bringing back memories from last Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC metro Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 This is going to be interesting on Saturday. All models agree with the snow moving in and even a smaller heavier band developing over east central KS moving NW over KC or just slightly south. The issue seems to be the amounts. The new 18z GFS puts down 4-5" around KC while the NAM is around 1". BUFKIT data shows an average of 1.6" for KC. It'll be interesting if the GFS verifies or starts trending drier or if the other models trend wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 30 minutes ago, JoMo said: Anyone getting a kayak or canoe for Christmas? Insane rain totals on Christmas this run. What is that, about 7" for me? Just shoot me now. That's a death sentence for snow this winter if it's anything like last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 Ok, Weeklies aren't going to change much from Monday. Stormy in the west and up in Alaska and points on the other side of the world until around Jan 10th or so and by Jan 15th or so, then the trough shifts east to the central US and Canada. Temps in an hour or so but wouldn't expect much change from Monday's outlook. Warm for us until mid-Jan and then cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Bleh a wash out boring warm Christmas ugh, ok unless something happens I am already losing hope for this winter. I know its early but really, so boring here for snow! Been talking about moving back to KC again or north and I am seriously considering it lol. Beautiful here, clean city but the weather and the warmth just isn't cutting it for me anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Yeah, no change. 7 day temps go above normal around/after Christmas and remain that way until Mid-Jan and then they go normal/colder than normal until the end of the month/end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Man I am at a loss of words, that is sad, pathetic and its really depressing. I for surely hope that changes, will be like a xmas in florida again for the second year lol. Alaska anyone? Road trip? One of my childhood buddies lives in alaska actually, he's in the military living on base there. He's constantly sending me pics of all the crazy snow they get!!!! Guess I can just print some out and tape them to the windows xmas eve lmao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 1 hour ago, NwWhiteOut said: Man I am at a loss of words, that is sad, pathetic and its really depressing. I for surely hope that changes, will be like a xmas in florida again for the second year lol. Alaska anyone? Road trip? One of my childhood buddies lives in alaska actually, he's in the military living on base there. He's constantly sending me pics of all the crazy snow they get!!!! Guess I can just print some out and tape them to the windows xmas eve lmao. Crazy right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 3 hours ago, JoMo said: Ok, Weeklies aren't going to change much from Monday. Stormy in the west and up in Alaska and points on the other side of the world until around Jan 10th or so and by Jan 15th or so, then the trough shifts east to the central US and Canada. Temps in an hour or so but wouldn't expect much change from Monday's outlook. Warm for us until mid-Jan and then cold. Unless that dang euro shows a mean of 4"+ I'm not even going to think about snow again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC metro Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 00z NAM still shows about 1" of snow for much of KS and MO. There may be some isolated 2" pockets. Will be interesting to see if the GFS hangs on to its more aggressive solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 37 minutes ago, KC metro said: 00z NAM still shows about 1" of snow for much of KS and MO. There may be some isolated 2" pockets. Will be interesting to see if the GFS hangs on to its more aggressive solution. NAM and GFS both now put Des Moines under several inches, but it's hard to trust these slim deformation? bands on these models 24 hours or more out. NWS DSM is playing it safe and holding onto 1-2 inches and light ice potential. Also, I've been participating in the Ohio Valley/ Lakes boards for a long time now. Am I actually supposed to be here for Des Moines area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 The continued consistency of the GFS to have precip fall apart is astonishing. Looks like this is going to fizzle. I keep hoping each new run shows something better. Not looking promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Bit of a NW shift with the heaviest band on the 00z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC metro Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 00z GFS still holding onto the 3-5" totals around KC. I'm starting to think a vorticity lobe will approach the KC area Saturday afternoon and a heavier band of snow will develop in east central KS and stretch through NW MO. The question is will 1-2" or 3-5" of snow fall within this band. The difference between the NAM, GFS and Euro in terms of amounts is pretty significant only 36 hours out. KC is going with 1" or 1.5" for now. May need to increase those totals in the next forecast package. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 00z GEM moved the heavier band back north a bit as well. However, the most it has is 2". Definitely looking like NE KS/NW MO will be the best place for possible accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 24 minutes ago, KC metro said: 00z GFS still holding onto the 3-5" totals around KC. I'm starting to think a vorticity lobe will approach the KC area Saturday afternoon and a heavier band of snow will develop in east central KS and stretch through NW MO. The question is will 1-2" or 3-5" of snow fall within this band. The difference between the NAM, GFS and Euro in terms of amounts is pretty significant only 36 hours out. KC is going with 1" or 1.5" for now. May need to increase those totals in the next forecast package. I would be extremely hesitant to increase totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC metro Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 19 minutes ago, MUWX said: I would be extremely hesitant to increase totals. Agreed. I think 1-2" is a safe bet right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 00z GFS is interesting on the Christmas system this run. Would be a rain to snow situation as the system is initially neutrally tilted before it tilts positive. This keeps it from getting too wrapped up so it just kind of meanders across the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 00z Euro is a bit farther northward than the 12z run. Generally around 1-2" of 'snow' across SW to NE KS into NW MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 00z Euro is weaker with the Christmas storm because of a stronger system developing to it's west in the NE PAC. The system will pass to the south of most of us it looks like. On the NW fringes there may be some kind of frozen precip. Christmas is colder this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC metro Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 NWS in KC have upped snow totals to 3-4" tomorrow and this is primarily due to ratios of 20:1 or even 25:1 instead of 10:1 which is what the models base their output on. They even point out that the BUFKIT data shows almost 8" for the KC area. This will need to be watched but confidence is increasing that east central KS to NW MO could see 3+". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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