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OK/AR/KS/MO Winter 2016-17 Winter Discussion


lookingnorth

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1 minute ago, The Waterboy said:

The track from Texas straight north to MN is odd.  Interesting to get 2 models on board.  

Euro's track is basically from the TX PH to Western OK, to the Great Lakes. Weak surface low though. 

Northern system phases with the closed low. 

Closed low taking on a neutral/negative type tilt (seen over E NM) as the other system (seen over NE UT and SW WY) digs in the backside:

ecmwf_z500a_us_9.png

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6 minutes ago, JoMo said:

Euro's track is basically from the TX PH to Western OK, to the Great Lakes. Weak surface low though. 

Northern system phases with the closed low. 

Closed low taking on a neutral/negative type tilt (seen over E NM) as the other system (seen over NE UT and SW WY) digs in the backside:

ecmwf_z500a_us_9.png

Ive seen these before they can be I-44 Jackpots.

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1 minute ago, NwWhiteOut said:

Good I am ready for anything at the moment!!! I hope something happens, anything even cold air for xmas lol

Christmas is a little too far out to know. It's going to get real cold this weekend with probably a bit of snow in the air at least. 

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4 minutes ago, The Waterboy said:

Sorry, I was talking about the weekend storm but it isn't a cutoff.  My bad.  Still better chance for snow.  I wasn't looking at the Tuesday/Wednesday stuff.  My bad.  Rookie mistake...

Oh ok, no problem. Yeah the weekend storm got better for us 'down south'. Hopefully, it'll stay that way so we can all see some snow before Christmas!

The actual cutoff later on that the GEM/Euro phase, just slides across the south on the GFS this run with virtually nothing frozen. 

I was wondering where you were getting the maps so early, lol

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2 hours ago, Cerakoter1984 said:

Low single digits Sunday and Monday are going to feel ridiculous.

I thought that the chiefs-raiders game on Thursday night was brutal as far as temps go, but this Sunday's game vs the titans is going to be much worse.

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Still looking like many places get a dusting up to 1" of snow on Saturday. Some isolated spots may see a little more. Ratios could be a bit higher than 10:1. Greatest chance of accumulating snow is across SE KS, NW OK, central MO and NW AR.

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1 minute ago, KC metro said:

Still looking like many places get a dusting up to 1" of snow on Saturday. Some isolated spots may see a little more. Ratios could be a bit higher than 10:1. 

Yeah, it's going to be pretty cold when it snows. My only worry would be that the air would be too dry for it to snow and it evaporates before reaching the ground.

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11 hours ago, JoMo said:

Yeah, it's going to be pretty cold when it snows. My only worry would be that the air would be too dry for it to snow and it evaporates before reaching the ground.

 

23 minutes ago, JoMo said:

12z GFS still looking good for some light snow for many this weekend. This run had the northern system a bit farther north so everything kind of shifted back north. I don't think the system gets fully sampled until Friday.

Yes. Looks good for around an 1" or so for many areas and maybe a little more south of the KC metro.

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