JoMo Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 yeah the 12z GFS Ensemble disagreed with the EPO region being cleared. Bummer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 49 minutes ago, JoMo said: The 06z GFS parallel, and the 12z Canadian have something frozen on Monday for AR/MO. There's a lot of energy flying around and the models aren't sure if they want to crush it, or phase it. It's interesting to note that the 12z GFS clears the EPO region out much quicker this run and a stout -EPO is building. It is very interesting indeed. This coming at the same time that convection begins to build to our SW. The 0z euro had a storm waiting over the Baja on day 10. Could fit the timing of the Christmas storm on the GFS. I'm ready to get a clearer idea of how this month closes. Could be fun if all the chips fall just right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 12z Euro Snow streak is going to be a bit farther SE this run and lighter. Still running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 4 minutes ago, JoMo said: 12z Euro Snow streak is going to be a bit farther SE this run and lighter. Still running. HP up top is much stronger this run. Just blasts everything out of the way. Much colder too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 6 minutes ago, JoMo said: 12z Euro Snow streak is going to be a bit farther SE this run and lighter. Still running. Where does this put us in terms of ice/snow now? Mid Atlantic forum post said the ULL is in SE Mo @120 versus No. IL on the 00z. That's got to be a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 3 minutes ago, Cerakoter1984 said: HP up top is much stronger this run. Just blasts everything out of the way. Much colder too. Yeah, there's a northern system that comes much farther south than the previous run that crushes it. If you look at hour 132, the 500 MB vorticity map, you can see it over SD. Last nights run had it north of the Canadian border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 8 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: Where does this put us in terms of ice/snow now? Mid Atlantic forum post said the ULL is in SE Mo @120 versus No. IL on the 00z. That's got to be a good sign. Largely no change for our immediate area other than a greater chance for flurries I guess? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 3 minutes ago, JoMo said: Yeah, there's a northern system that comes much farther south than the previous run that crushes it. If you look at hour 132, the 500 MB vorticity map, you can see it over SD. Last nights run had it north of the Canadian border. Yeah. Quite a change there for sure. Oh well. Here's hoping for the GFS Christmas miracle storm. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 I don't know, there might still be a few surprises before that. Not quite in the 120 hr, Euro 'lock it in' zone yet. Also it's very messy (from an energy perspective) and shifted things east later in the run. Going to still be interesting to watch what happens with all that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 1 hour ago, JoMo said: I don't know, there might still be a few surprises before that. Not quite in the 120 hr, Euro 'lock it in' zone yet. Also it's very messy (from an energy perspective) and shifted things east later in the run. Going to still be interesting to watch what happens with all that. True also. I see the potential there for something but just not letting it get my hopes up. Maybe it will be a surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC metro Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 18z GFS consistent with the 12z solution showing a rain to snow event for portions of KS and MO on Saturday. Confidence is low on the potential track of the system and whether or not there will be any appreciable accumulation. The concept however is now on the table and is depicted on the Euro and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC metro Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Just for fun.... for the KC area on Saturday the 12z GFS showed 5.6" of snow and the 12z EC showed 2.8". Quite a difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Euro weeklies today...... Temps and stuff will be in another hour: From the general pattern... Looks like a trough running from Alaska (and on the other side of the world) down the west coast and into parts of the west that lasts until around Mid-Jan when the trough moves out onto the Plains and a -EPO builds. It stays that way until the end of the run 00z Jan 27th. Assuming it's correct, it would probably be warm the first half of Jan and then be frigid the second half. Control is pretty wild looking with lots of blocking and -AO type of look with periods of -EPO and just overall wild looking, lol... Temps when they arrive........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Meh who knows, we are digging in towards mid december and still seeing the 50 degree mark here off and on. I really had some high hopes for this winter because of summer being so hot usually spells a decent winter. Guess time will certainly tell what this pattern will do for us all. Would be nice if that xmas storm would surprise and hit us all lol!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Euro weekly temps are warm at the end of the month through mid-Jan and then go below normal about mid-Jan to the end of the run. If the trough winds up farther east than the Euro depicts, than the coldest temps will shift from the western US to the Plains sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 00Z GFS shifted a tad north with the snow/ drier south. Sigh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC metro Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Not as promising on the 00z GFS unless you live in IA. Rain still changes to snow over KS and MO but the heavier band is up in IA. This looks like of those situations where by the time it gets cold enough for snow the precipitation has moved out. Never a good set up for accumulation. It's still a ways out and something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Spot's Christmas Miracle is still around lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 23 minutes ago, JoMo said: Spot's Christmas Miracle is still around lol Woohoo!! Lock it in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 44 minutes ago, KC metro said: Not as promising on the 00z GFS unless you live in IA. Rain still changes to snow over KS and MO but the heavier band is up in IA. This looks like of those situations where by the time it gets cold enough for snow the precipitation has moved out. Never a good set up for accumulation. It's still a ways out and something to watch. Just knowing how the past couple years have been in model land with any winter systems in this part of the country, we might just be wasting breath talking about this thing. Relatively lame severe and winter seasons lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 00z Euro still has a stripe of snow across far NW MO, and northern KS, and a new little stripe across roughly the I-44 corridor. Wouldn't amount to much. Edit: Maybe a light mix or something on the 20th-21st down in Arkansas. Edit 2: And then a more consolidated storm this run on the 22nd for KS/MO with more light frozen precip. All likely to change though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 8 hours ago, JoMo said: Spot's Christmas Miracle is still around lol Lol Jomo.. Sure enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 NWS tulsa seems to think that Saturday's wintry threat has a little bit of merit to it according to their hazards map. Still time for that one to change a bunch of times as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC metro Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Looking at the 06z GFS....it was wetter than the 00z model. Still believe 1-2" of snow could accumulate in parts of KS and MO. Best chance would be over NE Kansas and NW Missouri. The track and timing are a little different between the Euro and GFS. Euro takes the track more to the NW where the GFS takes it a little further south. The Euro would also change over to snow quicker than the GFS. Still a lot to be worked out over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 12z GFS is farther south and less because the wave gets sheared faster. The cutoff low taking shape over NM/AZ is brand new tho.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 The Canadian has it too but phases it with northern stream energy, which results in a weird track and a 'front end' ice to rain situation except back in the western half of Kansas where it'll stay frozen.... weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 12z Euro is going to be a bit farther south with the snowfall for the system on Sat and Sat night because the northern stream is digging a bit more. It's all light snow. Some may reach NW AR this run with that second little band that forms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 And there goes the Euro with a similar situation to the Canadian model posted above with the second system the models just 'found' this morning ^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 7 minutes ago, JoMo said: And there goes the Euro with a similar situation to the Canadian model posted above with the second system the models just 'found' this morning ^ Trends are our friends. I'm actually quite shocked that the models have brought this storm back. It was there at around day 15 on both at one time. I think it could be pretty interesting before all is said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 24 minutes ago, JoMo said: And there goes the Euro with a similar situation to the Canadian model posted above with the second system the models just 'found' this morning ^ The track from Texas straight north to MN is odd. Interesting to get 2 models on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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