JoMo Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Nice little ice/snow storm there are on 12z GFS. Issues showing up with the -EPO though as a system knocks it down. This may cut off our cold connection and with a +AO as well, it may get warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Meanwhile in Canada land the main system comes through on Friday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 2 minutes ago, JoMo said: Meanwhile in Canada land the main system comes through on Friday... Yea. and it could be ice in OK/Ark..err Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 12z Euro.... Big Bertha is a bit farther south this run so everything shifts back to the south. Some very light freezing drizzle developing over SW MO on Wed morning possible. Thurs...Probably a bit of light snow in northern KS and NW MO. And then light frozen precip starts in southern KS/SW MO/NW AR on Thursday night into Friday with the precip expanding north and east over time.. 989 surface low in W KS at 18z Fri with the freezing line moving north but having trouble moving east into SW MO and NW AR. Eventually it does by 00z Fri with the surface low at 994 over Wichita. Best snow will be up in SD/IA/WI. Streak of light snow possible Sat night and Sunday across the I-44 corridor of OK into SW MO. -EPO gets lost about the 17th with a +AO also showing up. Temps look to be heading above normal by Tues the 20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 15 minutes ago, JoMo said: 12z Euro.... Big Bertha is a bit farther south this run so everything shifts back to the south. Some very light freezing drizzle developing over SW MO on Wed morning possible. Thurs...Probably a bit of light snow in northern KS and NW MO. And then light frozen precip starts in southern KS/SW MO/NW AR on Thursday night into Friday with the precip expanding north and east over time.. 989 surface low in W KS at 18z Fri with the freezing line moving north but having trouble moving east into SW MO and NW AR. Eventually it does by 00z Fri with the surface low at 994 over Wichita. Best snow will be up in SD/IA/WI. Streak of light snow possible Sat night and Sunday across the I-44 corridor of OK into SW MO. -EPO gets lost about the 17th with a +AO also showing up. Temps look to be heading above normal by Tues the 20th. Next... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 17 minutes ago, Spot said: Next... lol Pretty much. Maybe next year.. (Jan) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Just now, JoMo said: Pretty much. Maybe next year.. (Jan) It has a few days to come back. All the models are pretty sketchy right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Why a bit of doom and gloom? Looks like a lot of consensus for the storm next weekend. No need to worry about the models 10+ days out, right? Let's get a nice storm in before January and if the pattern has to reload then so be it. At least we have something exciting to talk about!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Just a bit of nervous joking around I guess..... kind of. Losing the -EPO is going to cut us off from cold though and no sign of a -AO is not good either. It's getting to be that time of year that we just need a storm to pass to our south anyway. If we can get the upper Plains snowed/iced over and Canada is going to be snowy and cold, so there's a supply of cold air available for any storm system(s). Euro ensembles are in now.... Just bulldozes the -EPO with lots of storminess up in Alaska and into Canada and the western US. Trough in the west is a bit farther east this run though but retrogrades by the end of the run. (if it keeps correcting east, that's not going to be a bad look) But -PNA equals a SE Ridge which equals warmth, at least on the control. Looks like temps go above normal on the mean on Dec 22nd and remain that way through Christmas. A lot of the members still have good tracks (farther south) for snow/frozen with the storm from Day 7-12 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 18z GFS.. not bad, not bad.. Probably a lot of sleet and ice mixed in I would assume. 12z Parallel GFS had this (also did something funky with the cutoff at a later hour): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 00z GFS is just trickling in. We may be talking about severe weather instead of frozen precip with the storm next week. Monster storm off to our NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Monster of a storm on the Euro as well. 979 in N KS. Next! EDIT: Everything on the Euro is moving faster/farther east after that. Narrow miss at a phase with the cutoff late in the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Nice... 06z GFS brings it out in two pieces. One to the north and then one to the south.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 No such luck on the 12z GFS. Went back to the 00z GFS solution. Canadian has a similar solution to the 12z GFS, just weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 That run was awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 12 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: That run was awful. Yeah, it was. Even the weird sorta phased negatively tilted cutoff thing that comes through just produces rain because of no cold air. No cold air available because it gets cutoff by this mass of blue in the EPO and AO regions. But I don't think we're stuck with that long term. I think that by the end of the month and into Jan, we'll probably either get a -AO or -EPO or both... based on the Euro weeklies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 37 minutes ago, JoMo said: Yeah, it was. Even the weird sorta phased negatively tilted cutoff thing that comes through just produces rain because of no cold air. No cold air available because it gets cutoff by this mass of blue in the EPO and AO regions. But I don't think we're stuck with that long term. I think that by the end of the month and into Jan, we'll probably either get a -AO or -EPO or both... based on the Euro weeklies. Highly agree. Fits the pattern progression I'm expecting pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 12z Euro is going to have a different solution from it's 00z run. Energy is more consolidated in the SW. Initial low is 993 passing near KC 06z Sat. Secondary batch of moisture comes through Sat morning/afternoon in a SW to NW band across KS into far NW MO. Leftover stuff pushes SE with time and falls apart. Looks a bit like the Canadian did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Think these models are going to drive me crazy. Some might argue I'm already there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 The GEFS and euro ensembles in the mid range still have a pretty vast number of outcomes in the day 6-10 range. GEFS keeps reloading after, Euro gets pretty boring. I can't really dismiss the potential in this pattern for a nasty storm somewhere but still a lot of days and runs to go between now and then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 I like what Larry Cosgrove said today - "...Many of the model series now show what amounts to be a "cold West vs. mild East" alignment in the longer term. While there is a vast and apparently strong subtropical high in command of the Old South and Eastern Seaboard in the 11 - 15 and 16 - 20 day periods, I call attention to what appears to be a building -AO/-NAO type ridge signal across Baffin Island and Greenland. That ridging matches well with the analog platforms, and if it is real will create profound distortion of the jet stream at some point around January 1 - 3. In other words, colder revisions from the Great Plains to the East Coast. Although I suspect that ultimately for next month the trough axis will be right through the heart of the continent, there could be some risk of an ice or snow event early in the new year in the Mid-Atlantic and New England regions. Until that time, the holiday week between Christmas and New Year may be great for skiers in the West, winter clothing manufacturers in Canada, and vacationers in Florida." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Will be watching a small scale feature early Tuesday. It is now showing up on the 00z GFS as well as a few other models. Will watch it closely as temps will be borderline. Not much yet, but will watch trends. I just want to see a little event before Christmas. On another note... temp gradient and how drastic the fall may be for some of us on Saturday is crazy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 53 minutes ago, Wx 24/7 said: Will be watching a small scale feature early Tuesday. It is now showing up on the 00z GFS as well as a few other models. Will watch it closely as temps will be borderline. Not much yet, but will watch trends. I just want to see a little event before Christmas. On another note... temp gradient and how drastic the fall may be for some of us on Saturday is crazy! Drops from the mid 50s or so, to the teens in 12-16 hours for me. Ouch... Really gonna suck since I probably won't get any decent amounts of anything here in south Kansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 00z Euro continues to have snow streaking out across KS/N MO on Sat. Little heavier this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC metro Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Friday night and Saturday morning will be the time to watch for some wintry precipitation. Right now it looks more like a rain to snow situation in much of KS and MO. SW winds will allow the temps to remain just above freezing Friday night and as the winds shift when the low passes to the east the rain could change over to snow early Saturday morning. The differences in the models however show rain changing to snow more quickly on the Euro which would allow for more accumulation. On the GFS, the rain doesn't change to snow until the tail end so any appreciable accumulation is lessened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 12z GFS run was better then the last few. Still looks like a bit of ice/snow on the backside. Sounds like that's similar to the 00 Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 29 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: 12z GFS run was better then the last few. Still looks like a bit of ice/snow on the backside. Sounds like that's similar to the 00 Euro. Indeed it is similar. The 12z Euro might be exciting to look at! How about that storm on Christmas? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 13 minutes ago, JoMo said: Indeed it is similar. The 12z Euro might be exciting to look at! How about that storm on Christmas? lol GFS Flizzard in NE OK.... bah. Good luck up there in KS/MO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 The 06z GFS parallel, and the 12z Canadian have something frozen on Monday for AR/MO. There's a lot of energy flying around and the models aren't sure if they want to crush it, or phase it. It's interesting to note that the 12z GFS clears the EPO region out much quicker this run and a stout -EPO is building. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC metro Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 12z GFS looks better for KS and MO. Rain would change to snow quicker like the 00z euro solution showed. Could see a couple of inches in spots if we are lucky. Of course, all of the can and will probably change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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