JoMo Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Forgot about the Weeklies until now...... Chiefs coming on so short version... They don't look bad. Long stretch of normalish temps after the cold ends towards the end of the month. Back to below normal and cold mid-Jan. Bunch of snow on the control run. End of Dec might kind of be blah. Ens mean actually has a trough over us a lot of the time once we get into January. Overall, not showing a 'winter cancel' through mid-Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 27 minutes ago, JoMo said: Forgot about the Weeklies until now...... Chiefs coming on so short version... They don't look bad. Long stretch of normalish temps after the cold ends towards the end of the month. Back to below normal and cold mid-Jan. Bunch of snow on the control run. End of Dec might kind of be blah. Ens mean actually has a trough over us a lot of the time once we get into January. Overall, not showing a 'winter cancel' through mid-Jan. Could be a pretty good stretch there after the next week or so where things actually start happening for us other than dry cold. I actually liked the weeklies this week, which is the first time since pretty much October 5th I've actually been able to say that. It's a shame when you have to warm up so it can snow. Lol. Good problem to have though I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Oh yeah, Go Chiefs!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 1 hour ago, Cerakoter1984 said: Oh yeah, Go Chiefs!! Smith needs to get his head in the game. And run the freakin ball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Chiefs can never win games very convincingly. They always have to make it close. Speaking of close, the GFS is probably eroding the cold air way too quickly with the system ejecting out of the SW on the 16th-17th. Probably an ice maker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 7 minutes ago, JoMo said: Chiefs can never win games very convincingly. They always have to make it close. Speaking of close, the GFS is probably eroding the cold air way too quickly with the system ejecting out of the SW on the 16th-17th. Probably an ice maker. At least this winter is shaping up more active than last. Wouldn't take much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 And then we have the long duration overrunning event with the closed off low over Utah towards the end of the run. The fun never ends with the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 9 minutes ago, JoMo said: And then we have the long duration overrunning event with the closed off low over Utah towards the end of the run. The fun never ends with the GFS. If we don't comment on it anymore maybe it will come true. Lol. I was talking to my dad about the upcoming system that you mentioned with the ice the other day. It wouldn't surprise me a bit. Too much cold air at the surface for there not to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 00z Euro is showing an even stronger -EPO. The big ball of crazy (PV) is farther south this run so it's colder farther south. The Dec 16-17 storm would produce a swath of snow across the northern 1/2 of KS/MO. Looks like overrunning precip developing on Day 9-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 If the models are right... holy Arctic cold Batman! That's the most sustained we've seen around here in December for a while, especially with no appreciable snowcover to speak of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Nice snow for central and northern Missouri on Wed. (system tracks farther south) The stuff across southern Missouri is probably a mix. And no continuity after this with it's 00z run from last night.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 12z gfs with 2-3 storms. A white Christmas. And truly incredible cold. Fun times could be coming, the models are at least fun to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 It's a Christmas Miracle for Spot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 1 minute ago, JoMo said: It's a Christmas Miracle for Spot! Lol JoMo... its crazy model mayhem here for sure. Fun to look at. Prob change at 18z.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 4 hours ago, Wx 24/7 said: If the models are right... holy Arctic cold Batman! That's the most sustained we've seen around here in December for a while, especially with no appreciable snowcover to speak of. GFS is on its crazy fun ride. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Oh, it will change, probably be 80 next run in OK Speaking of change, the 06z run of the GFS parallel sure had a lot of storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 3 minutes ago, JoMo said: Oh, it will change, probably be 80 next run in OK Speaking of change, the 06z run of the GFS parallel sure had a lot of storms. Lol ikr.. but it sure had some fun 12z runs though the last few days also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 If we don't get some type of storm between now and Christmas I'm going to be pissed. The pattern is in our favor. A white Christmas would be awesome but I'd take it before that as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Ensembles are still some of the most decent I've seen in a long time. Next 15 days should be fun to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC metro Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 2 hours ago, JoMo said: Nice snow for central and northern Missouri on Wed. (system tracks farther south) The stuff across southern Missouri is probably a mix. And no continuity after this with it's 00z run from last night.... Last Friday we were seeing the same thing for this past Wednesday and we see how it turned out. 12z GFS was fun to look at. I'll reserve judgement for next Wednesday on Sunday nights run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 12z Euro stream of consciousness....... Big Bertha up in Canada has a different tilt this run of the Euro so the cold will end up farther north with a stronger SW ridge early on. There's something coming through in the flow on Thursday that may give some frozen light precip to primarily OK/AR. Still a stout -EPO with a system developing in the western US. Frozen precip developing north of the cold front which is in Central OK still.... probably a giant icy mess for many with heavier snow in northern MO and Iowa on next Friday into Sat morn. Next round looks to be coming Sat night and starts in OK. Looks good for OK/AR and MO people. Next round looks to be coming on Monday but that's the end of the run. It's light precip for the most part but it is some kind of frozen much of the time. THIS RUN IS AWESOME!!! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Well at least the models are more active this season, that's a start lol!!! It looks like a little zr/sleet coming this way soon(tuesdayish into wednesday), doesnt look to be serious though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 9 hours ago, KC metro said: Last Friday we were seeing the same thing for this past Wednesday and we see how it turned out. 12z GFS was fun to look at. I'll reserve judgement for next Wednesday on Sunday nights run. Annnnnd it's gone..... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 10 minutes ago, JoMo said: Annnnnd it's gone..... lol Looks like ice chances increasing for next week on the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Yeah, the 00z GFS is not too different from the 12z Euro through 156. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 A few degrees colder and that's a terrible run for southern Missouri. Looks concerning for central Missouri, but it will change I am sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 That temp gradient though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 00z Euro stream of consciousness..... Big Bertha's tilt is back to a more neutral condition so the colder air is going to be farther south early on. Some very light amounts of precip showing up over SW MO and eventually farther north on Wed, might be some freezing drizzle or flurries. Friday looks like probably some freezing drizzle or flurries over NW AR, MO, KS, far NE OK., temps are warmer than the 12z run though. Warm bubble advancing into S KS and SW MO so changeover to rain in those areas by Friday afternoon, precip still pretty light. 999 surface low advancing just south of Joplin by Friday night, temps crashing behind it. Bit heavier precip up near KC. Trough was more open this time and had a more dominant wave up in Canada it looks like, so it was pretty progressive and moved through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 The last several runs of the global ensembles have the look of an overrunning event in the next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Lots to chew on and looks like those who are trying forecast beyond a couple of days out are having to adjust their forecasts more dramatically than normal with these model runs. Glad I don't have to put out an extended forecast that the public was depending on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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