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OK/AR/KS/MO Winter 2016-17 Winter Discussion


lookingnorth

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1 hour ago, Cerakoter1984 said:

Darn shame watching all this arctic air go to waste.

So true, but I am enjoying this cold before the next blowtorch arrives lol. Did it do anything over your way today? Seems to be the norm though, cold before a storm....storm comes it gets warm, storm leaves it gets cold haha.

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4 minutes ago, NwWhiteOut said:

So true, but I am enjoying this cold before the next blowtorch arrives lol. Did it do anything over your way today? Seems to be the norm though, cold before a storm....storm comes it gets warm, storm leaves it gets cold haha.

..as is life in the southern plains. Unfortunately  

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Nothing here, rain or snow yet. Was showing snow above a few times on the radar but nothing made it down to mother earth.  But I'm still holding out for some flakes as the radar is still showing a nice patch of snow 30 miles to the north of us and moving southward . So it "Aint over until the fat lady sings"

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2 hours ago, NwWhiteOut said:

So true, but I am enjoying this cold before the next blowtorch arrives lol. Did it do anything over your way today? Seems to be the norm though, cold before a storm....storm comes it gets warm, storm leaves it gets cold haha.

I don't really know that we'll actually see much of a blowtorch before it arrives. It looks pretty darn cold. Just can't get a storm through here. I got some freezing drizzle for an hour or so but that was all I got.

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2 hours ago, JoMo said:

Such a change from the 12z when it comes to cold through pretty much the entire forecast. Kind of shows you how things are teetering on either being really cold, or warm though.

Yeah. Probably some of the craziest modeling I've ever seen lately. All of this is still super impressive but I sure would like to see some white all around.

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The Euro and Nam want to bring some light accumulating snow on Sunday night across portions of Northern and NE Missouri. The GFS is a rain to snow scenario. The models are struggling with this pattern and may not be much use until 24-48 hours out. One thing is almost for certain...it's going to get cold next week! 

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12z Euro has a much better -EPO placement but that thing up in Canada is kinda screwing things up. Some light events look possible from the MO/KS border northward this run. Timing is up in the air. Becomes completely out of phase with it's run last night after 200+ hours. Very cold after that with a trough building in the west with lots of energy.

The ensembles should be interesting as well as the Weeklies later today. 

That -EPO though!

ecmwf_z500a_namer_9.png

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The Euro ensembles keep pushing back any warmup. Instead of chasing the cold at the end of the run like we were having to do last year (and it never arrived), this year it seems to be cold until the end of it's run then it warms up. Only the warmup that was supposed to happen around the 19th on the mean doesn't happen until at least the 23rd and it's muted and questionable if it will happen then.

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I love December cold, so I'm happy to see the models depicting the increasing likelihood of a below-normal month. Now if we could only get some snow. I got a Subaru Outback in January 2015 and haven't had the chance to see what it can do in the snow. I'm hoping that changes around the 17th of this month. 

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