MUWX Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 40 minutes ago, Wx 24/7 said: It is interesting that the model spits out no accumulation, especially when it has several sustained hours of decent snowfall returns over portions of the region. Curious to me. It looks wetter than the 18z run. Oh well. Now we wait for the next models to do their thing. Either way, brrrr.... it is going to get cold. I noticed this with both the 18z and 0z nam. It snows for 12-18 hours in Columbia on the 0z 12km nam and nothing shows up on total snowfall. I could be wrong, but I don't think the model can resolve dry air issues to the point that it shows up on radar but the accumulated precipitation doesn't show anything because it never makes it to the ground. That's the only thing that i can think of that could be happening and I'm not even sure if the model is capable of that. Does anyone know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Pretty much back to just some flurries for most on the 00z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC metro Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 00z NAM and GFS are pretty consistent with no accumulation to maybe a dusting or 1/4 inch over west central MO to up to 1" in east central KS. Best chance for accumulation is farther west toward central and western KS. I'm beginning to lean towards a drier solution because there's nothing to suggest this system will be any stronger than what's currently being advertised. The air will also be pretty dry after the front comes through. Local KC mets are going with 1-3 inches based on European and GFS ensembles and BUFKIT data. I expect them to start dialing that back if these drier trends continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Guess we will have to wait until the system is fully on land to get completely sampled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 1 hour ago, Wx 24/7 said: It is interesting that the model spits out no accumulation, especially when it has several sustained hours of decent snowfall returns over portions of the region. Curious to me. It looks wetter than the 18z run. Oh well. Now we wait for the next models to do their thing. Either way, brrrr.... it is going to get cold. It's virga. It's forecasting light to moderate hydrometers that form and then evaporate before hitting the ground. There is a lot of dry air showing up on the GFS and NAM right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC metro Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Just now, Wx 24/7 said: Guess we will have to wait until the system is fully on land to get completely sampled. True. It's in Alaska right now. I'd say by the models tomorrow night or the 12z on Tuesday we will have a pretty good idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 1 minute ago, bdgwx said: It's virga. It's forecasting light to moderate hydrometers that form and then evaporate before hitting the ground. There is a lot of dry air showing up on the GFS and NAM right now. Yes, the dry air is pretty strong. I am just a bit surprised based on the intensity of the returns on the model. NAM spits out some decent intensity for it to be all virga. The GFS is much more believable with its simulated returns versus projected amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Canadian is a bit more generous: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 It seem like at least once or twice a year we see decent returns completely eaten by the dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 lol, wow...A wild 'polar vortex' appears..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 00z Euro hops on the less precip bandwagon for Wed. Heaviest amount is over E Central KS and it's about 1.5-2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 What a great pattern this would be if the spacing were better and the GOA low would hurry and retrograde. Hopefully we get there by the back end of the month. Until then, not much to say about it other than its going to be quite cold. If analogs are worth the effort and study that go into them though, January could be really crazy for most all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 I think most people in this region would agree that the Euro has been exhibiting subpar performance as of late. First, the SW cutoff low being handled poorly. Then, the cyclogenesis in association with the arctic front that is unlikely to happen. And now the possibility that it was too bullish on the QPF with the frontogenesis forcing for the middle week potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 12z GFS says "what snow?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC metro Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Snow accumulation looking less likely on Wednesday for much of KS and MO per 12z NAM and GFS. Best chances over western and north central KS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Coolish to Cold and dry in and off... Another words boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 12z Canadian has more snow. I still think there's an ok chance for nearly everyone to see some flurries. GFS has been pretty exciting to watch so far this winter. No model is going to be correct with the fast flow. The Euro has been too far west in the long range and has had to correct. We need longer wavelengths and the -AO to come back, or a -EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Mid month ice storm alert on the 12z GFS. Looks like January 27th, 2009 on day 13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 22 minutes ago, Cerakoter1984 said: Mid month ice storm alert on the 12z GFS. Looks like January 27th, 2009 on day 13. It'll change, but been seeing some parallels to Dec 2013 lately on the GFS. Dec 20th-21st 2013 had a SWFE that resulted in snow and ice. GFS extended: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Day 13 vs January 27, 2009 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 36 minutes ago, JoMo said: It'll change, but been seeing some parallels to Dec 2013 lately on the GFS. Dec 20th-21st 2013 had a SWFE that resulted in snow and ice. GFS extended: True also. 2013-14 was pretty much the best you can do with SWFE all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 12z Euro continues the downward trend in precip for Wed's 'system'. Also shifted it a bit farther south. Not looking for much at all though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwolfe904 Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Looking for recommendations on weather blogs or twitter handles to follow for our areas (I am in Kansas City area). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Euro was pretty boring this run. It needs to start throwing out wild solutions so it can be more like the GFS. hah Weeklies in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC metro Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 NWS in KC calling for less than 1/2 inch of snow on Wednesday. Sounds pretty accurate to me. I'm thinking flurries and maybe a dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Meh nothing surprises me anymore lol, looks to be cold then according to tulsa hello 50's again by sunday haha. Insane temp swings, just crazy!! Been getting a lot of freezing fog here at night though which is really cool looking, seen a lot of that in 2011 or 12 also in Missouri from warm days and really cold night snaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Im seeing that type of cold air "ooze" around 14-16th on GFS... we've seen this before...and the potential outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Euro weeklies go through Jan 20th (00z). No temps/snowfall maps yet. The ensemble doesn't look too bad, it manages to keep storminess out of the GOA until after the first week of Jan. Good hints of a -EPO around Dec 29th until Jan 7th or so. After that, it looks like it wants to get stormy across the west and in Canada again with the trough moving out into the Plains right after mid-Jan. The control is like, winter cancel,from Dec 20th to Jan 7th or so when a big ridge develops over most of the US, then it gets fun looking after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Nice, 7 day average of 2m temps are below normal all the way through Jan 9th. Slightly above average after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 1 hour ago, JoMo said: Nice, 7 day average of 2m temps are below normal all the way through Jan 9th. Slightly above average after that. Good news for a change! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.