raindancewx Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 It's early, but the West seems like it will be pretty cold this month. I do think the first half of the month is colder than the second half out here, may turn pretty cold in the South in the 2nd half of Dec. I don't necessarily expect the map I'm attaching to verify, but I think it's on the table for December, it's probably 1-3F closer to 0F in the +4 and -6F zones unless everything goes right/wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 6 hours ago, JoMo said: It's running now. Euro still has snow with the 'big storm' in KS and NW MO. Edit: Very cold Euro run. About 10 degrees colder here at 00z Friday than the GFS. Makes sense because the GFS has an issue with scouring out the cold air too quickly. About 20 degrees colder here on 00z Sunday. Edit 2: Ensembles running a bit behind but running now. Assuming that the Weeklies are going to run behind as well Disappointing evolution of the "big storm" next week on the models... sigh. At least everything has trended colder sooner, so whatever precip we do get here (near Wichita) will likely be snow/wintry. At the the very least, a couple/few inches of snow is more than I have seen in about 2 years, been a couple of pathetic winter seasons in a row for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 Nice little snowfall for some on the 00z GFS for the Dec 7th storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 The GFS through 10 days looks great for me in Columbia. Two four inch storms in about a 5 days span. Canadian looks good for the midweek storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC metro Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 Snow chances increasing for mid-week for Kansas and Missouri per the GFS and Canadian models. Nice swath of 3-5 inch snows from south central Kansas up through KCMO. A lot can change between now and then but confidence is increasing in some wintry precipitation next week. Timing and amounts will probably change but the general idea is on the table. Cold is for sure coming with highs in the 20s on Wednesday and Thursday and lows in the teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 The difference between the 6z GFS and 0z Euro with the trough position and orientation by days 5-6 are laughable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 Wxbell put out their final winter forecast. Below normal for D-F but just barely at -1 for most. Dec = normal to -1, Jan -1, Feb = normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 2 hours ago, JoMo said: Wxbell put out their final winter forecast. Below normal for D-F but just barely at -1 for most. Dec = normal to -1, Jan -1, Feb = normal. Do they give snow/precip forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 41 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said: Do they give snow/precip forecast? Kept it the same as last update, a big "Below" over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC metro Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 The GFS giveth. The GFS taketh away. The 0z model run last night showed a nice swath of 3-5 inches of snow from Kansas to Missouri next Wednesday. Today's run. Maybe an inch. I do think we will see a little snow but it probably will be in the form of flurries to a few snow showers with a dusting in spots versus a good accumulating snow. That being said.... it's almost impossible to forecast amounts and timing this far in advance so models will go back and forth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 Euro ensembles getting kind of ugly in the extended (mid-month) with Canada becoming stormy. Zonal type flow underneath so going to possibly start getting toasty over the SW and Southern Plains. (The control would actually bring another massive cold shot thanks to -EPO, lol) Looking at the individual members. I could still see it going very warm or very cold at probably equal chances in the extended 10+ day forecast. Snow chances backed off a bit with the "Dec 7th" storm. Amounts and location still vary though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC metro Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 I tend to take the weather channel with a grain of salt. Here's their preliminary map for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 00z GFS shows a bit of light snow with the first system: Surprise! it found a second system that hits farther south (looks noting like the 12z) And another: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 That was a fun run! Canadian has a system at 240 that is really interesting but it'll change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 5 hours ago, KC metro said: I tend to take the weather channel with a grain of salt. Here's their preliminary map for next week. Especially given the vast uncertainty with this system. Reading the AFDs from regional WFOs has been funny, "we could get something, even something big, or we could get absolutely nothing." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 00z Euro ramped the snowfall up with the system bit for KS/MO. Heaviest looks to fall in a band from KS/MO between just north of Joplin and KC. Farther south than the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 Looks like at least a great chance of seeing 36 straight hours or more below freezing next week. Not the early snowstorm and long lasting cold outbreak I'm hoping for just yet but I'm liking our chances toward mid and late month better now. Don't need any major pattern corrections to go off and screw things up in the meantime though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 Snow chances will work themselves out as we get closer to the event but a nice cold snap coming this week with several hours below freezing...well below! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 12z GFS/Canadian still showing some snow with the upcoming system. I'll take anything, just need some mood flakes to go along with the cold. I wouldn't expect the models to get anything right past day 5 with the pattern shuffle going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC metro Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 Still looking at a swath of 1-3" snows from Kansas to Missouri midweek. Euro more bullish on amounts because the system is slower on the euro versus the GFS. My confidence is growing on snow potential because both models show the potential. I'm not as confident on track and amounts as there remain key differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwolfe904 Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 Yay! Would love to see something in Kansas City areas! Thanks for the updates! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 37 minutes ago, JoMo said: 12z GFS/Canadian still showing some snow with the upcoming system. I'll take anything, just need some mood flakes to go along with the cold. I wouldn't expect the models to get anything right past day 5 with the pattern shuffle going on. I think you guys up there have a shot at something with the trends favoring you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 19 minutes ago, Spot said: I think you guys up there have a shot at something with the trends favoring you. Yeah, it looks better in MO/KS right now. Not really expecting anything more than flurries for most areas with a lucky band of snow probably developing between here and KC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 The mean as far south as me was .9 of snow last I checked. If that verifies, you folks up north should be great. True, JoMo. Trusting the models even beyond 3 days is pushing it. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lookingnorth Posted December 3, 2016 Author Share Posted December 3, 2016 Unfortunately it looks like all of the snow is going to miss the OKC area. Last winter in North Carolina all I got was a sleet storm and a freezing rain storm so I want a good snowfall sometime this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 GEFS mean would suggest Kansas and western MO have the highest odds of accumulating snow right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC metro Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 AFD from KC agrees that best chance of accumulating snow will be from east central KS to west central MO where 1-2 inches may fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC metro Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 18Z GFS still has the snow there. It's just very light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 Anyone remember when the system coming Wed was a big system? Good times. Now it's just a couple flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 3 minutes ago, JoMo said: Anyone remember when the system coming Wed was a big system? Good times. Now it's just a couple flurries. On the GFS, yes... Other models still show moderate-snow potential (locations vary of course). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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