OUGrad05 Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 On 1/12/2017 at 11:37 PM, Wx 24/7 said: So, funny item for the day... our overnight low according to the NWS is 29. Well, we are already 28º in Monett. Just food for thought. Expand Ya that's interesting, I'll check the official airport temp update at NWS when it updates in 15 or 20 min. At 6pm the 3km NAM forecasts 37 in Tulsa, the NAM 35, at my house right now its 35.1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 FWIW the 22z HRRR is running about 2-3 degrees too warm already in basically all of Oklahoma. Will see if it catches up in the next couple hours it has the freezing line racing southward almost to I-40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Springfield just got their weather balloon data.. "Shallow Arctic air of 22 to 27 degrees up to 1300 feet above the ground over the Ozarks. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Temp down to 32 at Rogers/Bentonville already. This is Bentonville's forecast from NWS Tulsa: A slight chance of showers before 7pm, then rain likely after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 On 1/13/2017 at 12:03 AM, The Waterboy said: Temp down to 32 at Rogers/Bentonville already. This is Bentonville's forecast from NWS Tulsa: A slight chance of showers before 7pm, then rain likely after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Expand Yup. Anyone north of that imaginary elevation line 12 miles to my south is going to get at least some ice. This is why I get so mad at NWS Tulsa. I'd rather see them forecast (use judgement) and be wrong than throw a model out and hope it works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 On 1/13/2017 at 12:03 AM, The Waterboy said: Temp down to 32 at Rogers/Bentonville already. This is Bentonville's forecast from NWS Tulsa: A slight chance of showers before 7pm, then rain likely after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Expand It's going to warm up down there before the sun comes up. At least according to the HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 According to Mesonet the freezing line is 1/3 into NW OK into Osage country and the Far NE OK counties at 6:30 and 36 in Tulsa. Latest HRRR shows that line just entering NW OK and no where else and 36 in Tulsa. interestingly enough, dewpoints are really close if not a tad cooler on the HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 On 1/13/2017 at 12:24 AM, JoMo said: It's going to warm up down there before the sun comes up. At least according to the HRRR. Expand The problem is the HRRR never has them below 35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 HRRR looks like scattered convective showers, at least tonight/tomorrow morning. There might be a big difference in ice amounts from one location to the next if that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Sitting here at 34 with a DP of 28. Not good in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Been holding at 38 here for the last hour or so, DP is 30 even according to my weather station. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Glad its 39 here. Ice is serious and I hope those in the ice zone prepare accordingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 On 1/13/2017 at 12:33 AM, Weatherdemon said: According to Mesonet the freezing line is 1/3 into NW OK into Osage country and the Far NE OK counties at 6:30 and 36 in Tulsa. Latest HRRR shows that line just entering NW OK and no where else and 36 in Tulsa. interestingly enough, dewpoints are really close if not a tad cooler on the HRRR. Expand The dewpoints are what's critical now. They will determine how cold we all are (and stay) once the rain starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doramo Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 34.5 with DP of 26 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 On 1/13/2017 at 1:14 AM, NJ_Ken said: The dewpoints are what's critical now. They will determine how cold we all are (and stay) once the rain starts. Expand 16 in BVille, 23 in Tulsa, 31 as far south as Talahina. Basically below freezing except for the 4 SEastern most counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 On 1/13/2017 at 1:33 AM, Weatherdemon said: 16 in BVille, 23 in Tulsa, 31 as far south as Talahina. Basically below freezing except for the 4 SEastern most counties. Expand Bville could get hit pretty hard. 23 in tulsa, if precipitation starts that'll come up a few degrees, but a 23* dew point leads me to believe we're heading for an overnight low of 28 or 29* not the 32 predicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 9m temps are still falling over the NE corner of the state. Surface should hit 33 here in a few minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Light rain developing just S of the front in SE OK up to FT Smith and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 00z Mesonet catching up with actual temps. Actually running a little cool south of Tulsa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 On 1/13/2017 at 1:33 AM, Weatherdemon said: 16 in BVille, 23 in Tulsa, 31 as far south as Talahina. Basically below freezing except for the 4 SEastern most counties. Expand Yeah, the immediate OKC metro reporting stations seem to be hovering at dewpoints around 19 or 20 F with air temps in the mid-30s. It is going to be close. Somebody is going to be in a serious mess by this time tomorrow. I just can't quite tell if it is going to be me or somebody 20 or 30 miles north of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 HRRR convection nails Tulsa if we stay under freezing. There are a couple bands that could drop a 1/3-12 inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 I'm skeptical of the HRRR precip total in those convective bands. Also at those precip rates it would not be very efficient ice accretion so the ice accumulation would be less than shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 On 1/13/2017 at 3:25 AM, WhiteoutWX said: I'm skeptical of the HRRR precip total in those convective bands. Also at those precip rates it would not be very efficient ice accretion so the ice accumulation would be less than shown. Expand It didn't show much accumulation but unless it's 27 degrees it wouldn't pile up very quick. looks like Norman is going with the 00z NAM which seems pretty solid to me right now in terms of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 The RGEM has .78 inches ice in OKC with no changeover til 20z Saturday. It has Norman mainly rain though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Tulsa leaning toward RAP for temps a the NAM for amounts then adding a couple counties to the advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STL Scott Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 GIFS and GEM keep STL Colder..GEM actually gives us a slight switchover late Sat pm buth then back to some big Icing until 18z Sunday..Anyone else seeing it that way?Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-J320AZ using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC metro Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 For Kansas City there is a significant difference of accumulation from the 00z models: NAM = .10" GFS = .34" GEM = .56" I believe the majority of ice for the KC metro will come overnight Saturday into Sunday morning. Accumulations will probably be around 1/4" to 1/3" of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Gee, it has only been 3320 days since the last ice storm warning was issued by Wichita (for any county in their CWA) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 On a separate KC-related note, still thousands of (now very cheap) tickets left for the first BIG Chiefs home playoff game in what seems like forever. So upsetting, and such terrible timing... I'll be there regardless I guess. I don't think roads will be quite as bad as it may otherwise seem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Just started to rain here, coming down fairly good. Sitting at 35 imby(looks like temps are a degree or 2 colder just north of here) with a DP of 28 still. Tulsa says 37 for the low overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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