Hurricane Hermine coming our way? The latest runs seem to think so...

[Violentweatherfan]

1 hour ago, RedSky said:

ECM east. DT must be like WUT lol

 

 

Yeah, he is gonna get trolled big time. His maps from last night likely won't verify.  This event is great for practicing to not to get too emotionally invested in. 

One thing I learned from the Euro is that as the every storm goes through stages and the Euro like clockwork has an OMG, MOTHER OF GOD, EPIC run.  It seems to occur in the first stage of most runs. 

Not gonna fall for it.  For example, the major hit it showed I don't believe the Euro had enough runs over land, or inland and needed to adjust. 

[RedSky]

Problem with the ECM is it's the best scoring model yet still gets plenty wrong. What are you going to do.

 

 

[hazwoper]

 

[Tibet]

 

[hazwoper]

^ great reply! 

[wasnow215]

I think we are WAY too late for good model verification.  Nowcasting is upon us.  For people on the beaches to let their guard down would be really foolish.  The NAM historically is better this close to actual events, and the last two runs were stronger than they have been.

[Tibet]

dat 360 doh

[Bliz299]

As of 5pm (Sat.) peak gust 45mph at 12:52pm with several gusts just under that. Dominant wind direction last hour NE. Rained 9am-noon, 0.14". Sun was peaking out about 30 min. ago but now 95% cloudy. Now we wait...

[SP]

Just waking up.....looks like storm cancel......for most part.

[hazwoper]

I think we need to look at any retrograding low depicted on the models with a more critical eye moving forward.  I know the next time they show an outcome like this I will be less likely to believe them.  Such outcomes are extremely rare (Sandy being an outlier that had the strong trough modeled for days).

lesson learned

[Tibet]

Yeah, definitely looks like Rambo got this one wrong.

[Violentweatherfan]

4 hours ago, hazwoper said:

I think we need to look at any retrograding low depicted on the models with a more critical eye moving forward.  I know the next time they show an outcome like this I will be less likely to believe them.  Such outcomes are extremely rare (Sandy being an outlier that had the strong trough modeled for days).

lesson learned

Especially when a capture is involved.  So glad i didn't invest little or any emotion in this storm, snow is so much easier to deal with than heavy rain and floods.  Great learning experience dealing with threading the needle and dealing with a capture. 

 

[Treckasec]

[Tibet]

1 hour ago, Treckasec said:

 

 

Looks like a cornered and wounded animal when it makes that last run at the coast... trying to lash out one last time.

[zenmsav6810]

Track reminds me of Ophelia a few years ago