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Hurricane Hermine coming our way? The latest runs seem to think so...

Tibet

By Tibet,
in Philadelphia Region

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SP

SP

Posted
Posted

Early dawn rise here as sports are in full swing. Popped by the beach after drop offs. I was instantly reminded of the feeling of a pending nor'easter. The winds shifting and building. Choppy seas turning into a steady fetch. Saw the sand dunes being built on the fly. Not too worried about our area but concerned for the south jersey and DE coasts.

Locally I expect the impacts commonly found with a moderate coastal. Some power outages, minor to moderate flooding. Definitely beach erosion or as we local like to say dollar bills washed out to sea.

Track is key obviously and it ain't over until it's over. 92 and Sandy are my top two events. This might be more Irene like.....likely less for Monmouth.

Btw the sunrise was stunning!!!

Be safe all!

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Bluescat1

Bluescat1

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, SP said:

Early dawn rise here as sports are in full swing. Popped by the beach after drop offs. I was instantly reminded of the feeling of a pending nor'easter. The winds shifting and building. Choppy seas turning into a steady fetch. Saw the sand dunes being built on the fly. Not too worried about our area but concerned for the south jersey and DE coasts.

Locally I expect the impacts commonly found with a moderate coastal. Some power outages, minor to moderate flooding. Definitely beach erosion or as we local like to say dollar bills washed out to sea.

Track is key obviously and it ain't over until it's over. 92 and Sandy are my top two events. This might be more Irene like.....likely less for Monmouth.

Btw the sunrise was stunning!!!

Be safe all!

This is going to mess up fishing for awhile. 

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Birds~69

Birds~69

Posted
Posted

I haven't watched the "accu weather" channel in quite some time. I really can't believe they're still looping their broadcast w/a TS/Hurricane on the east coast. No live updates...nothing. The channel is completely useless. I actually miss TWC which I don't have any longer thanks to Verizon. They usually did a decent job with tropical events.

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

Posted
Posted
I haven't watched the "accu weather" channel in quite some time. I really can't believe they're still looping their broadcast w/a TS/Hurricane on the east coast. No live updates...nothing. The channel is completely useless. I actually miss TWC which I don't have any longer thanks to Verizon. They usually did a decent job with tropical events.


This ^^^
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SP

SP

Posted
Posted
I haven't watched the "accu weather" channel in quite some time. I really can't believe they're still looping their broadcast w/a TS/Hurricane on the east coast. No live updates...nothing. The channel is completely useless. I actually miss TWC which I don't have any longer thanks to Verizon. They usually did a decent job with tropical events.



You are not missing much. The usual live reports showing waves and wind. The cries that this is going to be worse than sandy without the added disclaimer....for those areas who were south of sandy center and now north of hermine center....say from DE coast to AC.

Strange thing about this storm is few are aware...care....and very little media and govt hype.

They better hope it does not evolve into something really bad. Though from what I recall from my past....a 9ft tide puts much of cape may point under water. I have seen wildwood flood with less water. Wonder how many tourist are currently located between LBI to Cape May? They might get an education on coastal living they did not bargain for.......
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Hurricane Agnes

Hurricane Agnes

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Do the GFDL and NGP have any credibility in regards to these types of situations? 6Z runs would be extremely bad for NJ. The GFDL goes as far as to intensify the system to sub 978mb while drifting WNW and making a "landfall" near Wildwood. NGP is similar but a bit farther South....still stalls the system for days though.

GFDL as a 981mb:

gfdl_mslp_wind_09L_8.png

 

NGP:

navgem_mslp_pcpn_us_6.png

Thoughts? Is this going to get 'captured' and tugged back to the coast or are we safe?

 

Thanks.

Wonder if it is because of this (as of yesterday)-

 

sst-09032016.jpg

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Blizzard-on-GFS

Blizzard-on-GFS

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said:

From what I've been reading in other regional forums, up welling will negate any strengthening. 

That doesn't make any sense to me because any storm on any part of the ocean is going to cause upwelling it doesn't negate the fact that there's a massive amount of latent heat energy in the ocean.

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Violentweatherfan

Violentweatherfan

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21 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said:

That doesn't make any sense to me because any storm on any part of the ocean is going to cause upwelling it doesn't negate the fact that there's a massive amount of latent heat energy in the ocean.

Cooler to colder water will surface and reduce SST's.  Hermine may strengthen only since it moved from land to seas... 

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hazwoper

hazwoper

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said:

That doesn't make any sense to me because any storm on any part of the ocean is going to cause upwelling it doesn't negate the fact that there's a massive amount of latent heat energy in the ocean.

????

 

you do realize that any storm that sits in one location for a long period of time typically weakens due to cooling surface waters.  This is very well known fact.  Tropical systems need to continue forward momentum over warm water in order to gain or sustain their strength 

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Violentweatherfan

Violentweatherfan

Posted
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3 minutes ago, Bluescat1 said:

It may stop the strengthening over time but initially I think it is still a factor.

During Sandy in 2012 I was thinking what would the implications be if Sandy formed late summer with warmer SST's.  But from what I read warm SST aren't as deep as say the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico and not have the same impact.  I might be in error since I assumed this might be your thinking. 

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