hlcater Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 Might be a little early to start this one, but the NHC just named 92L with a 50% chance of development within 5 days, so I decided why not. Wave moved off shore this evening and if one believes the Euro and GFS, both have sufficient ridging over the central Atlantic to force a later recurve of the system. Could have a threat to the East coast or Gulf, but given the 10+ days out, timing and track changes occur every run, however, one thing that I've noticed on every run, is that it ends up somewhere on the EC or in the Carribean/Gulf every time. This is all if our newly offshore wave survives the trip across the Atlantic likely battling dry air to the north preventing it from significant development early on. Both the latest Euro and GFS develop this system about 3/4 of the way to the Antilles(Euro being a bit slower than the GFS, which really doesnt matter too much at this point), or about the same area Erika developed last year(we all know how that went, That particular GFS run took a very similar track to Erika, right up the spine of PR, Hisp, and Cuba, again doesnt matter because 10+ to go yet). That is about as far as I am willing to go with any sort of confidence because at least there has been some run-to-run consistency out to that point. After this, the respective solution changes every run on each model. Probably will be tracking this one for awhile, whether it develops over the Tropical Atlantic or waits until it nears the Caribbean. Euro 12z: GFS 12z: Spaghetti Models(only 5 so far ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoastHurricane Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 1 minute ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: Might be a little early to start this one, but the NHC just named 92L with a 50% chance of development within 5 days, so I decided why not. Wave moved off shore this evening and if one believes the Euro and GFS, both have sufficient ridging over the central Atlantic to force a later recurve of the system. Could have a threat to the East coast or Gulf, but given the 10+ days out, timing and track changes occur every run, however, one thing that I've noticed on every run, is that it ends up somewhere on the EC or in the Carribean/Gulf every time. This is all if our newly offshore wave survives the trip across the Atlantic likely battling dry air to the north preventing it from significant development early on. Both the latest Euro and GFS develop this system about 3/4 of the way to the Antilles(Euro being a bit slower than the GFS, which really doesnt matter too much at this point), or about the same area Erika developed last year(we all know how that went, That particular GFS run took a very similar track to Erika, right up the spine of PR, Hisp, and Cuba, again doesnt matter because 10+ to go yet). That is about as far as I am willing to go with any sort of confidence because at least there has been some run-to-run consistency out to that point. After this, the respective solution changes every run on each model. Probably will be tracking this one for awhile, whether it develops over the Tropical Atlantic or waits until it nears the Caribbean. Euro 12z: GFS 12z: Spaghetti Models(only 5 so far ) Great post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 EURO completely loses it. not happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 1 hour ago, ldub23 said: EURO completely loses it. not happening. How do you figure? Watch it bring it back next run. Models are going to change this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 1 hour ago, ldub23 said: EURO completely loses it. not happening. It didnt lose it at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 Euro doesn't develop the wave, gfs does. Either way, I suppose it will be fun to track for the next couple weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 30, 2016 Author Share Posted August 30, 2016 Euro keeps the identity of the wave, but doesn't develop it, not quite looking like the monster it was last night and yesterday(and beyond when it was in fantasy range). Still may have a storm but it may fall into the same boat as TD9. GFS still has development but stalls it out north of the Bahamas, then sweeps it up the EC with a landfall in the far NE US. There is potential for this system but that is all I can say at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 There continues to be a lot of SAL out in the tropical Atlantic. No doubt that has something to do with the models backing off on the extent of 92L's development. Models continue to be consistent with the westward track up to the northern islands region, though, as Gaston lifts out and the sub-tropical ridge builds in strong behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 30, 2016 Author Share Posted August 30, 2016 18z GFS does not develop the wave, instead it rams it into hispanola where it dies, jinxed the system by starting a thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 This wave has become pretty active over the last couple days. Not surprisingly, models are doing little with it while it races westward across the Caribbean. However, today's 12z GFS and Euro both show a renewed attempt at organization once it reaches the western gulf and slams on the brakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 http://www.meteofrance.gp/previsions-meteo-antilles-guyane/animation/radar/antilles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 The surface easterlies are screaming with a strong TUTT over the central Caribbean. I can't imagine this developing into anything substantial unless the easterly surge weakens and/or the TUTT closes off and lifts north or west. If any development occurs beyond convection flareups and brief mid level spinups, it probably won't organize until it reaches a less hostile environment in the western Caribbean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 10, 2016 Share Posted September 10, 2016 A streak of very high wind shear crashing southward on the backside of the upper low to the northeast decapitated this sytem today. The swirl is still there so maybe it can try again farther west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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