TD 8 Carolina threat?

[downeastnc]

Well 91L went off and is TD8 and honestly looking at the loops could be a TS, the real question now is how far west does it make it....the clouds over eastern NC are from the blowoff of the storms and its only 300 or so miles SE of Lookout as it is....I wonder if a stronger deeper system will be moved along faster than the weak unorganized low the models show meandering up to the coast then turning out....the CMC seems to be closest to its current strength etc and it turns it OTS about 100 miles off Hatteras. Anyways was surprised to wake up to this it looked like total hell when I went to bed last night lol. As of now the track is close to the CMC from NHC and they dont expect much strengthening of course they had this thing at 20% chance to develop last night so intensification forecast are always tricky....shear though is gonna be pretty strong but them waters is pretty warm....

 

 

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082016
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

The area of low pressure located west of Bermuda has been producing
intermittent organized deep convection for the last 24 hours or so,
and the convection has increased markedly since 06Z.  Given this,
and the well-defined center shown by an overnight ASCAT pass,
advisories are now being initiated on this system as a tropical
cyclone.  The initial intensity is estimated to be 30 kt based on
the latest Dvorak estimates of T2.0/30 kt from TAFB and SAB.  An Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate
the depression this afternoon.

The environment is only expected to be marginally conducive for
intensification, with moderate southeasterly to easterly shear
expected to become southwesterly and increase further in 36 to 48
hours.  As a result, only modest strengthening is shown in the
official forecast, with the depression expected to become a tropical
storm in the next day or two.  After that time, the global models
show the cyclone opening up along a frontal zone well offshore of
the northeastern United States.  However, there is some disagreement
in when this will occur, with the GFS showing the cyclone
dissipating in about 3 days, and the ECMWF hanging onto it until
around day 5.  As a compromise, the NHC forecast shows dissipation
after day 4, but this timing is quite uncertain.

The depression is currently situated south of a mid-level ridge that
extends from the Mid-Atlantic states into the western Atlantic, and
the initial motion estimate is 280/08.  The ridge is forecast to
break down and shift eastward during the next 2-3 days, which should
result in the cyclone gradually turning poleward and then recurving
during the next 72 hours.  The NHC track forecast is close to a
blend of the GFS and ECMWF models through dissipation.  This
forecast keeps the center of the cyclone east of the Outer Banks of
North Carolina, but a tropical storm watch may be needed for that
area later today.

Based on an evaluation of satellite imagery and data during the past
few days, it appears that the remnants of Tropical Storm Fiona are
not directly responsible for the genesis of this depression.  The
Fiona remnants were absorbed into a separate area of pre-existing
vorticity, with the current depression developing out of the
combined system.  As a result, this is considered to be a new
tropical cyclone, not a regeneration of a previous tropical
cyclone.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/1500Z 31.5N  70.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  29/0000Z 32.1N  71.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  29/1200Z 32.9N  73.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  30/0000Z 33.6N  74.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  30/1200Z 34.2N  75.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  31/1200Z 36.5N  73.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  01/1200Z 39.0N  66.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

 

 

[yotaman]

Surprise, surprise this morning. We will see how close it can get before making that turn. We do need some rain.

Just looked at the sat image, shear looks pretty strong of the east southeast right now. Unless the shear relaxes, I doubt we will see a tropical storm out of it.

 

[downeastnc]

23 minutes ago, yotaman said:

Surprise, surprise this morning. We will see how close it can get before making that turn. We do need some rain.

Just looked at the sat image, shear looks pretty strong of the east southeast right now. Unless the shear relaxes, I doubt we will see a tropical storm out of it.

 

IF the LLC can keep close or under the MLC then it might hold up better, but the shear is so bad the MLC keeps outrunning the LLC and they weaken and die, and if that happens then a new one has to form and it weakens the system a lot, kinda like we are seeing now....and the shear forecast really doesnt improve any....then again you wouldnt think anything would have formed given the shear so who knows.....if the HH had been there a few hrs ago they would have easily found a TS and still might...its actually got decent outflow though and sometimes you get these high shear storms where everything lines up and they can exist as long as everything is moving in the same direction....if the storm is moving NW at 10 mph and the shear is from the SE at 20 the effective shear is only 10 mph....Either way if it holds up at the least we might squeeze some rain out of it.

[yotaman]

We are already seeing good moisture flow from this storm. Picked up 1.10" about a few hours ago in a nice storm. Storms are popping all over eastern NC.

[NWNC2015]

Loving TD 8! I wanted some dry/sunny days finally and this will giving some sinking air on the west side closer to the foothills. Keep the rain down east! Looking like a beautiful week. 

 

[Cold Rain]

46 minutes ago, NWNC2015 said:

Loving TD 8! I wanted some dry/sunny days finally and this will giving some sinking air on the west side closer to the foothills. Keep the rain down east! Looking like a beautiful week. 

 

Move to Jonesville, SC.  It is always dry and sunny there.