cyclone77 Posted September 6, 2016 Share Posted September 6, 2016 87/75/96 before noon. 90 looks like a slam dunk. Luckily it's quite breezy out. These dews are very impressive considering how much the crops have dried out lately. Many of the corn fields are more than 3/4 brown now. Dews would likely be near or above 80 with this setup a few weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 6, 2016 Share Posted September 6, 2016 Dewpoint up to 78 in Pontiac, IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 6, 2016 Share Posted September 6, 2016 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL 1048 AM CDT TUE SEP 6 2016 UPDATE 1030 AM CDT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT, HOWEVER, TEMP AND DEWPOINT TRENDS ARE A LITTLE CONCERNING GOING INTO MIDDAY AND THE AFTERNOON. LATEST OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING MID TO UPPER 70S DEWPOINTS PUSHING INTO THE CWA AND WITH CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS OF AROUND 90 DEGREES, WOULD PUT HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105 RANGE FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITHIN THE CWA. LOCATIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA, MAINLY SOUTH OF I80, WILL LIKELY OBSERVE THE HEAT INDICES CLOSER TO 105. AT THE TIME, EXPECTED HEAT INDICES WOULD NOT SUPPORT ANY HEADLINE. AM CONCERNED THAT TEMPS COULD RISE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN FORECAST, AND COULD PUT HEAT INDICES MORE AROUND 105 FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON. MAY GO AHEAD AND ISSUE AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL MORE TODAY, AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. DID NOT ADJUST POPS THIS MORNING THINKING THAT THE BULK OF ANY PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL STAY JUST OUTSIDE OF THE CWA. HOWEVER, SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST CWA THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE HIGH DEWPOINT AIR AND DIURNAL HEATING SUPPORTING INCREASING INSTABILITY IN THIS LOCATION, THIS DEFINITELY SEEMS REASONABLE. LACK OF ANY REAL FOCUS AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH. RODRIGUEZ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 6, 2016 Share Posted September 6, 2016 overperforming dews, wonderful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 6, 2016 Share Posted September 6, 2016 current dews Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted September 6, 2016 Share Posted September 6, 2016 87/75 at DTW at 1pm in September... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 6, 2016 Share Posted September 6, 2016 4 minutes ago, Powerball said: 87/75 at DTW at 1pm in September... Do you know when DTW became the official site for Detroit? Anyhow, that 75 dewpoint is the highest September dewpoint at DTW since 9/2/2000 (also 75). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted September 6, 2016 Share Posted September 6, 2016 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Dewpoint up to 78 in Pontiac, IL. Those dp readings in Pontiac always seem suspect, multiple occasions in the summer where they record 81-82 readings meanwhile everyone else is in the 76-78 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 6, 2016 Share Posted September 6, 2016 Wow at the upper 70s dews, well above expectations there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 6, 2016 Share Posted September 6, 2016 30 minutes ago, Chambana said: Those dp readings in Pontiac always seem suspect, multiple occasions in the summer where they record 81-82 readings meanwhile everyone else is in the 76-78 range. Yeah they tend to run a bit higher. I'm not sure what the particular setup is there. May not necessarily be a flawed instrument but positioning too close to a field of crops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 6, 2016 Share Posted September 6, 2016 1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said: overperforming dews, wonderful Theme of 2016. Wish we could save some of the overperforming dew mojo for next spring lol. 91/76/103 here. Have already tagged 92. <90 streak from July 25 to now is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 6, 2016 Share Posted September 6, 2016 Looks like a nice reprieve from the high humidity arrives by early Saturday for all of us. Sub 60 dews Sat through Mon. A little tentacle of higher dews spikes up around next Tue, but it looks fleeting. I think after this week we're done with these multi-day 70+ degree dew days. The way this year is going though, who knows lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted September 6, 2016 Share Posted September 6, 2016 IND got Detroited yesterday at 89°, along with several of their ASOS sites. None reached 90. Same thing will be the case today and likely tomorrow, too. Temps have already halted at 88°F as of 1:56pm. We're due for a September without a 90° day since September 2012, anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted September 6, 2016 Share Posted September 6, 2016 93 at CLE so far today, which brings the 90 degree days to 27 this year, normal is 9. Will probably be able to tack on another tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted September 6, 2016 Share Posted September 6, 2016 Yeah they tend to run a bit higher. I'm not sure what the particular setup is there. May not necessarily be a flawed instrument but positioning too close to a field of crops. So they shouldn't have installed this above that black roof? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 6, 2016 Share Posted September 6, 2016 So far at ORD we've had obs of 89/74 and 90/73. The last 90/75 ob to occur there in September happened on 9/8/1985. Goes to show how unusual it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 6, 2016 Share Posted September 6, 2016 Looks like a nice reprieve from the high humidity arrives by early Saturday for all of us. Sub 60 dews Sat through Mon. A little tentacle of higher dews spikes up around next Tue, but it looks fleeting. I think after this week we're done with these multi-day 70+ degree dew days. The way this year is going though, who knows lol. This morning's GFS and Euro are showing the first big chill diving south from Canada mid next week. The GFS actually has a freeze down to near La Crosse, with upper 30s down into eastern Iowa, and highs only in the mid 60s. That'll be quite a change if it holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 6, 2016 Share Posted September 6, 2016 Add another 90 to the count here, hit 90 about half hour ago, sitting at 89 currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 6, 2016 Share Posted September 6, 2016 This morning's GFS and Euro are showing the first big chill diving south from Canada mid next week. The GFS actually has a freeze down to near La Crosse, with upper 30s down into eastern Iowa, and highs only in the mid 60s. That'll be quite a change if it holds. That will be nice. As warm as it is out there today it's hard to believe we are now <3 weeks away from the earliest snowflakes to have fallen in this area on record. September 25 1942. Looks like 92 will end up being our high for today. Dews have mixed back a bit. Down to 73 after hovering in the 75-76 degree range much of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 6, 2016 Share Posted September 6, 2016 This morning's GFS and Euro are showing the first big chill diving south from Canada mid next week. The GFS actually has a freeze down to near La Crosse, with upper 30s down into eastern Iowa, and highs only in the mid 60s. That'll be quite a change if it holds. GFS is always ultra aggressive with early cold snaps, I will take the over on all of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted September 6, 2016 Share Posted September 6, 2016 Car had 94, bank clock had 93. Looks like the clockwork early September torch lives on, been a very common theme. Ready for that first dynamic fall system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 6, 2016 Share Posted September 6, 2016 Today is the warmest in a while here.... low 90s with dew stuck at 75 all day. As cyclone said, the wind helps. The extreme humidity earlier in summer came with little if any breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted September 6, 2016 Share Posted September 6, 2016 GRR delivering the goods... [quote]000 FXUS63 KGRR 061927 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 327 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016 We believe there is a threat for flooding early Wednesday night along with a potential tornado environment reminiscent of August 20th. A 40+ knot WSW low level jet... anomalously strong for this time of year...is expected to develop and transport enough moisture to boost precipitable water (PWAT) values to over 2 inches. Propagation effects from the low-level jet will offset movement driven by mean winds in the cloud bearing layer, setting the stage for training storms. Low LCL heights and a warm mid-troposphere will provide a very deep warm cloud layer conducive to efficient collision-coalescence rain processes. Locally large rainfall rates/amounts will therefore be possible, particularly with training storms. This environment also enables convective instability to concentrate down low //evidenced by forecast 0-3km MLCAPE around 100 J per kg// which could then stretch vorticity associated with low-level shear //0-1km bulk values of 20-30 kts// in the vicinity of the low-level jet. This is where the concern for short-lived tornadoes lies. The scenario described above may fail to materialize if outflow from large multicell clusters dominates the overall environment. However...a tornado threat will remain possible with any relatively isolated convective segments that develop. The key factor will be watching surface observations to see if winds remain consistently backed to the south or southeast without being overrun by outflow. This was a key indicator on the 20th and could again be important early Wednesday night.[/quote] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 6, 2016 Share Posted September 6, 2016 I was going to mention the Wed evening timeframe but just didn't have enough confidence. These exceptionally moist and sufficiently low level shear environments have obviously tended to produce lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted September 6, 2016 Share Posted September 6, 2016 Also, this nugget from DTX... 000 FXUS63 KDTX 061912 CCA AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion...corrected typo National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 306 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016 Tomorrow remains challenging forecast as ridge still looks to be holding up fairly well, as heights remain at or above 588 DAM, with 700 mb temps aoa 10 C. None-the-less, MLcapes on the order of 1000- 2000 J/kg with weakening to NIL Cap during the afternoon, and with very moist airmass (PW values above 2 inches), will only takes a few cells to get going with renewed activity on any outflow boundaries, as highs are expected to be around 90 degrees again. With the isolated activity generated this afternoon, felt compelled to increase pops a little bit tomorrow (20 south to 55 near Saginaw Bay), as there is surface trough/warm front noted in 12z euro lifting through southeast michigan toward 00z Thursday. If night shift has increased confidence in activity not materializing across southern half of the cwa, may need heat advisory for Detroit Metro Area as heat indices push toward 100 degrees once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 7, 2016 Share Posted September 7, 2016 Not having a substantial breeze really does make a difference as you guys said. Was just outside and the air feels heavier than before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted September 7, 2016 Share Posted September 7, 2016 Not having a substantial breeze really does make a difference as you guys said. Was just outside and the air feels heavier than before. I actually wasn't all that breezy IMO, other than the typical Florida-like surface vorticity stirred up from the low-level CAPE. Both DTW and DET officially made it to 91*F today. I also forgot to mention that it had rained where I worked this morning (which was completely unexpected). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 7, 2016 Share Posted September 7, 2016 Pretty amazing to see the NAM progs of mid 70s dews well into the night tomorrow night as far north as parts of Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 7, 2016 Share Posted September 7, 2016 Pretty amazing to see the NAM progs of mid 70s dews well into the night tomorrow night as far north as parts of Michigan. I believe it, hell right now its 80/73 and I see no reason for the dewpoint to drop off overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 7, 2016 Share Posted September 7, 2016 I actually wasn't all that breezy IMO, other than the typical Florida-like surface vorticity stirred up from the low-level CAPE. Both DTW and DET officially made it to 91*F today. I also forgot to mention that it had rained where I worked this morning (which was completely unexpected). Was pretty breezy over this area today. 20-25mph winds much of the afternoon. Looks like a repeat tomorrow regarding the winds. Dews mixed into the low 70s later in the afternoon, and never bumped back up after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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