Stebo Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Just now, Powerball said: And that's actually what you want headed into Winter (see 2007 and 1998 as examples) if you're hoping for an active pattern. It could end up being short-term pain and long-term gain for snow birds like Jonger. Yes not only that but upstream from your location you want very moist ground with no drought conditions and to our west and southwest they have been pounded for a while now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 6 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I partially agree with Jonger as far as the mugginess. It's pretty difficult (though not impossible) to get dewpoints in the 70s in Detroit once you get into the middle of September, so in that sense, the days of oppressive conditions are numbered. Of course it's still very much possible to have temperatures well into the 80s and even 90s. Visine season approaches. Gonna have those 80F days with 15% humidity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 1 minute ago, Jonger said: Visine season approaches. Gonna have those 80F days with 15% humidity. 80/28? Yeah this isn't Denver or Phoenix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 5 minutes ago, Stebo said: 80/28? Yeah this isn't Denver or Phoenix. Oct 20th last year was 75F with 23%. The 80/28 is a bit more rare, but I have seen it here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Just now, Jonger said: Oct 20th last year was 75F with 23%. The 80/28 is a bit more rare, but I have seen it here. Probably more rare than a dewpoint above 75. That type of setup just doesn't happen here. Too much ambient soil moisture unless it is March or October, even then still extremely rare. Oh and that is 75/34 which is no where near 80/28. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 To get a 80/28 temperature profile you'd have to mix up to almost 600mb, again extremely unlikely to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 I love this blurb from Tallahassee's AFD today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 6 hours ago, Stebo said: Still not looking at the data, I see. Every warmup being modeled comes with above normal humidity with dewpoints in the upper 60s and into the 70s. Bring it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Low of 40 this morning. Coolest since July 17th when it dipped to 37. I think leaves will be really nice this year. Reds are going to dominate based on what I'm seeing really early, which isn't a lot but for sure noticeable. Peak is usually last week of Sept here locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Was touched on a bit last night but man, this upcoming pattern next week is about as good as it gets to drive swamp air pretty far north. Days of southerly flow over soil that is not hurting for moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Today is top notch. Anyone who doesn't enjoy this whether has a mental illness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Here's a 12z GFS loop from 84-156 hours, using 12 hour increments. Other models are in similar agreement so I'm just picking out the GFS. Can see how the pattern becomes a bit stagnant with Hermine wandering around off the east coast as it becomes trapped by strong ridging to its west and east. The western troughing has a difficult time making much eastward progress and as a result, we are stuck in an area of warm/humid conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Looks like the record September dewpoint for Chicago is 76... 3 times, most recently back on September 7, 1985. At one point it was actually 97/75 that day for a heat index of 110F... pretty impressive. Probably won't manage a dewpoint that high next week but could get within a few degrees or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Everything looks to be trying to cool down towards near normal by the end of the GFS run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 32 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Everything looks to be trying to cool down towards near normal by the end of the GFS run After next Thursday, things look much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Corn is very quickly drying out around these parts now. Soils are still very moist, but by next week they should have dried out some. With the drying crops, lower sun angle, and top soil dried out some I'm thinking low 70s are as high as we see dews for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 2 hours ago, cyclone77 said: Corn is very quickly drying out around these parts now. Soils are still very moist, but by next week they should have dried out some. With the drying crops, lower sun angle, and top soil dried out some I'm thinking low 70s are as high as we see dews for the most part. You make some good points. GFS is suggesting a huge area of dews in the 70s starting on Tuesday (and some mid to upper 70s at that). Arguably more impressive is the northward extent with those values getting well north into WI/MI. Could be a bit too aggressive... we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 21 minutes ago, Hoosier said: You make some good points. GFS is suggesting a huge area of dews in the 70s starting on Tuesday (and some mid to upper 70s at that). Arguably more impressive is the northward extent with those values getting well north into WI/MI. Could be a bit too aggressive... we'll see. Euro shows the same thing, so the GFS isn't alone on the projection. By 00z Tuesday evening it has 70 degree dewpoints to the UP. Pockets of 72-74 all the way to Green Bay. The overall magnitude is a couple degrees lower than the GFS but the overall pattern is for widespread 70-75 dewpoints for the area for several days, with a resurgence next weekend before the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 24 minutes ago, Stebo said: Euro shows the same thing, so the GFS isn't alone on the projection. By 00z Tuesday evening it has 70 degree dewpoints to the UP. Pockets of 72-74 all the way to Green Bay. The overall magnitude is a couple degrees lower than the GFS but the overall pattern is for widespread 70-75 dewpoints for the area for several days, with a resurgence next weekend before the front. Yeah, a muggy setup either way. Severe prospects may also start to increase later next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Wow they nudged the temps up even higher for next week Sunday Sunny, with a high near 81. Light and variable wind becoming southeast 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon. Sunday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 59. Southeast wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening. Labor Day Sunny, with a high near 83. Monday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 65. Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 88. Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 71. Wednesday A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. Wednesday Night A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 71. Thursday A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 86. Thursday Night A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. Friday A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 83. Those 71s aren't too far off record mins, only about 3-6 off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 IWX thinking next week could be interesting for Severe Weather due to the recurving remnants of Madeline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 LOT forecast is knocking at the door of 90 for Chicago on Tue/Wed. This is something that typically happens at some point in September... by my count, Chicago has hit 90+ on 240 days in September, with nearly half of those occurrences (106) coming in the first week of the month. By the way, if you want a September record that is probably unbreakable, look no further than 9/29/1953, when the high was 99F. The next warmest for that day is 87! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 90 in the point now for Tue lol. This fantastic weekend, and the fact we have finally received a nice break from the humidity is nice. If we were to get another stretch of high humidity and warm temps it wouldn't be so bad. Especially knowing October is less than 30 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 1 hour ago, cyclone77 said: 90 in the point now for Tue lol. This fantastic weekend, and the fact we have finally received a nice break from the humidity is nice. If we were to get another stretch of high humidity and warm temps it wouldn't be so bad. Especially knowing October is less than 30 days away. Yeah that's nice and all with October being less than 30 days away, but don't forget 07' is an analog for this fall lol. Just kidding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Kind of hot and sucky outside right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 21 minutes ago, Jonger said: Kind of hot and sucky outside right now. It's 74*F for chrissakes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 MPX going with 5"+ of rain area wide Monday through Wednesday. Wash, rinse, repeat. Slight risk of severe on Monday as well. Looks like PWATs of 2" for a good part of that timeframe. Pretty unusual for early September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 11 hours ago, Powerball said: It's 74*F for chrissakes... The last few days have been amazing. Not hot to me at all. I mean when I get into my black car after the sun has beat down on it, yes I use the AC, but it's been pleasant and so nice to let the fresh air in. The cool nights have left the house nice and cool. I'm in total Fall mode, so not necessarily looking forward to the warm days this week but not the end of the world. I will deal as the crisp air and colors are right on the doorstep! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 About as perfect of a 5 day stretch of weather you could ask for, good stuff. Total fall mode now with college football and NFL starting. Starting to get that very early fall feel in the air, local stores rolling out pumpkin displays too. If we stay dry could be a very early harvest. I remember in 2009 they were harvesting in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 LOT mentioning heat indices near 100. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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