Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted August 27, 2016 Share Posted August 27, 2016 I'll also post this on the Short Term severe thread at this time, but SPC hinted in this morning's D4-8 outlook that there's a system worth watching for the early part of next weekend (Labor Day weekend), particularly Fri-Sat: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/ DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0346 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016 ON FRIDAY/DAY 7 AND SATURDAY/DAY 8...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS FORECAST SOUTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NCNTRL STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. IF THIS OCCURS LATE IN THE WEEK...INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IN THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY COULD RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE FINER-SCALE DETAILS LATE IN THE WEEK ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS SUGGESTING PREDICTABILITY REMAINS LOW. ..BROYLES.. 08/27/2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted August 27, 2016 Share Posted August 27, 2016 Quote ALEK will like this map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 Looking good for warmth. Wet in the west, dry in the eastern half of the sub Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 Here's the CFS precip output for August. Just sayin' I would definitely put more weight in its temperature prog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 12 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Here's the CFS precip output for August. Just sayin' I would definitely put more weight in its temperature prog. Yeah, I would go a touch wetter than the CFS for September. It is good to see that we will remain warm though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 On 8/27/2016 at 4:09 PM, IWXwx said: Looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 Looking forward to the cool down this week. The last few days sucked something bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 21 minutes ago, Jonger said: Looking forward to the cool down this week. The last few days sucked something bad. Enjoy it for the brief time it last... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 LER plume affecting portions of NE. IL/SE. WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 been raining all moring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Socked in here. Lake effect clouds and showers have settled in over the past day. point has 37 tonight and just a few miles inland from me more down near freezing. Welcome Met Fall! At this point, the frost coverage should not be too widespread but did highlight the potential by issuing an Special Weather Statement. No risk of frost closer to the Great Lakes shores as temps there should be mid 40s to mid 50s. So overall a chilly late summer night for sure but not even close to records for interior spots. Most of those records for first few days of Sep (at locations such as Stambaugh in Iron county) are already down into the 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Cant really ask for much better weather for the final summer holiday. Looking forward to the weekend camping, drinking beer, and watching college football.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Haven't felt air like this in awhile. Low 70s, with dews in the mid 50s. Great way to kick off September. Good riddance summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 6 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Haven't felt air like this in awhile. Low 70s, with dews in the mid 50s. Great way to kick off September. Good riddance summer. Bad news ILZ009-020900- WHITESIDE- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...STERLING 326 PM CDT THU SEP 1 2016 TUESDAY MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGH IN THE UPPER 80S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 6 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Bad news ILZ009-020900- WHITESIDE- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...STERLING 326 PM CDT THU SEP 1 2016 TUESDAY MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGH IN THE UPPER 80S. lol. Well at least the stints of high humidity should get shorter and shorter as we go on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Not too surprising given the environment, but there were a few waterspouts offshore from NE. IL/SE. WI this morning/afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Doctor Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Absolutely beautiful today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 So even this "cool down" is underachieving, as today only had an average departure of -2*F. :lmaosmiley: Love it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 3 hours ago, Hoosier said: Bad news ILZ009-020900- WHITESIDE- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...STERLING 326 PM CDT THU SEP 1 2016 TUESDAY MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGH IN THE UPPER 80S. Yeah we have 87 in the forecast here in Detroit from DTX. Pattern looks to stay warm too for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 2 hours ago, Powerball said: So even this "cool down" is underachieving, as today only had an average departure of -2*F. :lmaosmiley: Love it! Today was the nicest weather we have seen in a month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Just now, Jonger said: Today was the nicest weather we have seen in a month. Be sure to take a pic, because it'll be gone very shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 3 minutes ago, Jonger said: Today was the nicest weather we have seen in a month. Labor Day Sunny, with a high near 82. Monday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 63. Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 86. Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 68. Wednesday A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 86. Wednesday Night A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. Thursday A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 82. Lol gunna be rough. Oh and before you say anything, that is for Howell not DTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 10 more days and it's over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 1 minute ago, Jonger said: 10 more days and it's over. I guess you didn't look at the models any then. Looks like a prolonged trough west, ridge east pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Temps might stay up, but humidity is going to start declining with each warmup. The grossest weather of the year is waning away. 8 - 9 months of sweat free weather on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Just now, Jonger said: Temps might stay up, but humidity is going to start declining with each warmup. The grossest weather of the year is waning away. 8 - 9 months of sweat free weather on the way. Still not looking at the data, I see. Every warmup being modeled comes with above normal humidity with dewpoints in the upper 60s and into the 70s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 I partially agree with Jonger as far as the mugginess. It's pretty difficult (though not impossible) to get dewpoints in the 70s in Detroit once you get into the middle of September, so in that sense, the days of oppressive conditions are numbered. Of course it's still very much possible to have temperatures well into the 80s and even 90s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I partially agree with Jonger as far as the mugginess. It's pretty difficult (though not impossible) to get dewpoints in the 70s in Detroit once you get into the middle of September, so in that sense, the days of oppressive conditions are numbered. Of course it's still very much possible to have temperatures well into the 80s and even 90s. Considering the moist pattern we have been in, and what looks to be a strong high in the southeast once Hermine moves out to sea, I think the pattern is ideal for higher dewpoints to be driven northward. It would be an uncommon pattern but considering the background state and overall synoptic setup it is very believable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 23 minutes ago, Stebo said: I guess you didn't look at the models any then. Looks like a prolonged trough west, ridge east pattern. And that's actually what you want headed into Winter (see 2007 and 1998 as examples) if you're hoping for an active pattern. It could end up being short-term pain and long-term gain for snow birds like Jonger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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