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September 2016 Temperature Forecast Contest


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Predict the temperature anomalies for these nine locations (relative to 1981-2010 normals) ...

 

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

(please note, I will be on holiday starting August 31st to about Tuesday 6th, the usual fast appearance of a table of entries may not happen on the first but I will get one together as soon as I can, if I find suitable internet in the back of beyond).

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On August 26, 2016 at 6:41 PM, Roger Smith said:

Predict the temperature anomalies for these nine locations (relative to 1981-2010 normals) ...

 

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

(please note, I will be on holiday starting August 31st to about Tuesday 6th, the usual fast appearance of a table of entries may not happen on the first but I will get one together as soon as I can, if I find suitable internet in the back of beyond).

Dca:+1.9

Nyc:+2.5

Bos:+2.2

Ord+1.0

Atl:+2.5

Iah:+1.3

Den:-1.0

phx-1.0

sea+1.0

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Table of Forecasts September 2016

 

FORECASTER ____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ____ ORD_ ATL_ IAH ____ DEN_ PHX_ SEA

 

Roger Smith _____________+4.4_ +4.3_ +3.7 ___ +2.7_ +2.5_ +1.0 ___ +3.0_ +0.2_ +2.8 

Damage in Tolland _______ +4.3_ +4.0_ +3.8 ___ +2.8_ +3.5_ +1.5 ___ +1.5_ +2.5_ +0.2

Maxim _________________ +4.0_ +4.5_ +4.0 ___ +4.0_ +3.5_ +1.5 ___ +2.0_ +0.5__ 0.0

Midlo Snow Maker ________+3.9_ +4.1_ +4.1 ___ +2.8_ +2.0_ +0.7 ___ +0.5_ --1.2_ --2.3

Rjay ___________________ +3.5_ +4.0_ +3.5 ___ +3.0_ +3.0_ +0.5 ___ +1.0_ +0.5_ --0.5

dmillz25 ________________ +3.3_ +3.5_ +2.7 ___ +2.7_ +2.0_ +2.0 ___ +1.0_ +1.5_ +1.0

wxallannj _______________ +3.2_ +3.4_ +3.1 ___ +1.5_ +2.5_ +1.1 ___ +1.2_ --0.3_ --1.2

DonSutherland.1 _________ +3.1_ +3.3_ +2.8 ___ +2.0_ +3.1_ +0.5 ___ +0.6_ +1.8_ +1.1

Stebo __________________ +3.0_ +3.3_ +2.7 ___ +2.5_ +3.1_ +1.2 ___ +0.2_ --1.5_ --2.2

 

Consensus ______________ +3.0_ +3.2_ +2.8 ___ +2.4_ +2.5_ +1.3 ___ +1.2_ +0.5_ +0.4 

 

BKViking ___ (-25%) ______+2.9_ +2.8_ +2.5 ___ +1.0_ +2.5_ +1.1 ___ +1.7_ +1.0_ +0.5

blazess556 ______________ +2.8_ +3.1_ +2.5 ___ +2.3_ +3.0_ +1.4 ___ +0.4_ --1.3_ --2.0

Tom ___________________ +2.8_ +2.9_ +2.4 ___ +2.7_ +1.9_ +1.8 ___ +1.1_ +1.1_ +0.8

wxdude64 ______________ +2.6_ +2.5_ +2.9 ___ +1.4_ +2.2_ +1.5 ___ +2.0_ +1.0_ +0.9

Mallow _________________ +2.5_ +2.0_ +2.0 ___ +3.2_ +2.9_ +1.8 ___ +3.3_ --1.2_ --1.8

RodneyS ________________+2.0_ +2.5_ +3.0 ___ +2.0_ +3.0_ +1.0 ___ +5.0__ 0.0 _ +1.0

Tenman Johnson _________ +1.9_ +2.5_ +2.2 ___ +1.0_ +2.5_ +1.3 ___ --1.0_ --1.0_ +1.0

SD _____________________+1.5_ +1.0_ +0.7 ___ +0.5+1.0_ +0.5 ___ --1.0_ --0.5_ --1.0

hudsonvalley21 __________ +1.2_ +1.1_ +1.3 ___ +1.1_ +1.0_ +1.9 ___ +1.2_ +1.8_ +0.7

 

Normal __________________ 0.0__ 0.0__ 0.0 _____ 0.0__ 0.0__ 0.0 _____ 0.0__ 0.0__ 0.0

 

Consensus is mean of 9th and 10th ranked forecasts, highest and lowest forecasts are color coded;

where low is > 0.0, Normal is actually lowest. ... first report on anomalies after 7 days. 

 

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Here's our early looks at anomalies and projections ...

____________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

__________ (7d) _____ +2.9__ +2.2_ --0.5 ___ +3.9_ +1.9_ +1.9 ____ +3.8_ --1.1_ --3.1

_________ (10d) _____ +5.9__ +5.0_ +2.3 ___ +3.9_ +2.9_ +1.8 ____ +1.6_ --1.1_ --2.1

_________ (13d) _____ +5.8__ +4.5_ +2.6 ___ +3.5_ +3.4_ +1.9 ____ +1.0_ --0.6_ --1.3

_________ (15d) _____ +5.7__ +4.6_ +2.7 ___ +3.5_ +4.0_ +2.2 ____ +1.0_ --1.0_ --1.0

 

________ (p22d) _____ +4.5__ +4.1_ +3.0 ___ +3.5_ +3.3_ +2.8 ____ +1.5_ --1.3_ --0.7

________ (p30d) _____ +3.5__ +3.0_ +2.5 ___ +2.5_ +2.8_ +1.5 ____ +1.0_ --0.7_ --0.5

 

No changes in seasonal max data so the contest update back in the August thread remains valid, if there are any changes I will post a new table in this thread. Contest will be declared final on September 30th. 

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  • 2 weeks later...

__ Countdown now begins ... still no updates to seasonal max, IAH shows faint signs of posting an increase and ORD can still theoretically break 93, so I won't declare this until October first but I think it is settled at this point. Latest results are back in the August thread. Mallow and Maxim are tied for the lead. UPDATE -- SEASONAL MAX CONTEST DECLARED SETTLED, SEE AUGUST THREAD FOR THE SCORING SUMMARY. A REPORT WILL BE POSTED IN THIS THREAD AROUND MONDAY OCT 3rd.

____________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

_________ (18d) _____ +5.7__ +4.2_ +2.7 ___ +4.2_ +4.1_ +2.8 ____ +0.8_--0.9e_ --0.6

_________ (19d) _____ +5.7__ +4.3_ +2.9 ___ +4.4_ +4.2_ +3.0 ____ +1.4_--0.9e_ --0.6

_________ (20d) _____ +5.7__ +4.6_ +3.2 ___ +4.8_ +4.5_ +3.2 ____ +2.0_--1.1e_ --0.7

_________ (21d) _____ +5.8__ +4.8_ +3.6 ___ +4.9_ +4.6_ +3.3 ____ +2.3_--1.0e_ --0.7

_________ (22d) _____ +6.0__ +5.0_ +3.8 ___ +5.2_ +4.8_ +3.4 ____ +2.3_--1.3 _ --0.8

_________ (23d) _____ +6.1__ +5.3_ +3.9 ___ +5.3_ +5.0_ +3.5 ____ +2.6_ --1.5_ --0.8

_________ (24d) _____ +6.0__ +5.0_ +3.7 ___ +5.5_ +5.2_ +3.5 ____ +2.3_ --1.9_ --0.8

_________ (25d) _____ +5.8__ +4.7_ +3.4 ___ +5.8_ +5.5_ +3.6 ____ +2.0_ --1.9_ --0.4

_________ (26d) _____ +5.6__ +4.6_ +3.1 ___ +5.7_ +5.6_ +3.5 ____ +1.9_ --2.1_ --0.2

_________ (27d) _____ +5.5__ +4.6_ +3.1 ___ +5.5_ +5.8_ +3.4 ____ +2.0_ --2.1__ 0.0

_________ (28d) _____ +5.4__ +4.4_ +2.9 ___ +5.1_ +5.8_ +3.4 ____ +2.2_ --2.0__ 0.0

_________ (29d) _____ +5.3__ +4.2_ +2.7 ___ +5.1_ +5.6_ +3.2 ____ +2.4_ --1.9__ 0.0

_________ (30d) _____+5.0_ +3.8_ +2.6 __ +5.0_ +5.2_ +2.9 ___ +2.6_ --1.8_ --0.1

 

Final anomalies are all posted, scoring is updated.

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Final Scoring for September 2016

 

FORECASTER __________ DCA_NYC_BOS____east____ORD_ ATL_ IAH____cent_____TOTAL

 

Maxim _________________ 80 _ 86 _ 72 ____ 238 ____ 8068 _ 72 ____ 220 ____ 458 

Damage in Tolland _______ 86 _ 96 _ 76 ____258 ____ 56 _ 68 _ 72 ____ 196 _____ 454 

dmillz25 ________________66 _ 94 _ 98 ____ 258 ____ 54 _ 38 _ 82 ____ 174 _____ 432

Stebo __________________ 60 _ 90 _ 98 ____ 248 ____ 50 _ 60 _ 66 ____ 176 _____ 424

Roger Smith ____________ 88 _ 90 _ 78 ____ 256 ____ 54 _ 48 _ 62 ____ 164 _____ 420

Rjay ___________________70 _ 96 _ 82 ____ 248 ____ 60 _ 58 _ 52 ____ 170 _____ 418

blazess556 ______________56 _ 86 _ 98 ____ 240 ____ 46 _ 58 _ 70 ____ 174 _____ 414

 

Consensus ______________ 60 _ 88 _ 96 ____ 244 ____ 48 _ 48 _ 68 ____ 164 _____ 408 

 

Tom ___________________ 56 _ 82 _ 96 ____ 234 ____ 54 _ 36 _ 78 ____ 168 _____ 402

Mallow _________________ 50 _ 64 _ 88 ____ 202 ____ 64 _ 56 _ 78 ____ 198 _____ 400

DonSutherland.1 _________ 62 _ 90 _ 96 ____ 248 ____ 40 _ 60 _ 52 ____ 152 _____ 400

Midlo Snow Maker ________ 78 _ 94 _ 70 ____ 242 ____ 56 _ 38 _ 56 ____ 150 _____ 392 

wxallannj _______________ 64 _ 92 _ 90 ____ 246 ____ 30 _ 48 _ 64 ____ 142 _____ 388 

RodneyS ________________40 _ 74 _ 92 ____ 206 ____ 40 _ 58 _ 62 ____ 160 _____ 366 

wxdude64 ______________ 52 _ 74 _ 94 ____ 220 ____ 28 _ 42 _ 72 ____ 142 _____ 362

Tenman Johnson _________38 _ 74 _ 92 ____ 204 ____ 20 _ 48 _ 68 ____ 136 _____ 340 

BKViking _______________ 58 _ 80 _ 98 ____ 236 ____ 20 _ 48 _ 64 ____ 132 _ 358

___________ (-25%) _____ 44 _ 60 _ 74 ____ 178 ____ 15 _ 36 _ 48 ____ 099 _____ 277

hudsonvalley21 __________ 24 _ 46 _ 74 ____ 144 ____ 22 _ 18 _ 80 ____ 120 _____ 264

SD _____________________30 _ 44 _ 62 ____ 136 ____ 10 _ 18 _ 52 ____ 080 _____ 216 

 

Normal _________________ 00 _ 24 _ 48 ____ 072 ____ 00 _ 00__ 42 ____ 042 _____ 114

 

Final Scoring for western and all nine contests

 

FORECASTER ___________ DEN_PHX_SEA ____ TOTAL _____ All nine (= rank)

 

Mallow _________________ 86 _ 88 _ 66 _____ 240 ________ 640 (= 2 t)

Maxim _________________ 88 _ 54 _ 98 _____ 240 ________ 698 (= 1)

wxallannj _______________ 72 _ 70 _ 78 _____ 220 ________ 608 (= 9)

 

Consensus ______________ 72 _ 54 _ 90 _____ 216 ________ 624 (= 6) 

 

Rjay ___________________ 68 _ 54 _ 92 _____ 214 ________ 632 (= 4)

wxdude64 ______________ 88 _ 44 _ 80 _____ 212 ________ 574 (=12)

 

Normal __________________48 _ 64 _ 98 _____ 210 ________ 324 (=19)

 

blazess556 ______________ 56 _ 90 _ 62 _____ 208 ________ 622 (= 6)

Stebo __________________ 52 _ 94 _ 58 _____ 204 ________ 628 (= 5)

Midlo Snow Maker ________ 58 _ 88 _ 56 _____ 202 ________ 594 (=11)

Tom ___________________ 70 _ 42 _ 82 _____ 194 ________ 596 (=10)

RodneyS ________________52 _ 64 _ 78 _____ 194 ________ 560 (=14)

Roger Smith _____________92 _ 60 _ 42 _____ 194 ________ 614 (= 7) 

Tenman Johnson _________ 28 _ 84 _ 78 _____ 190 ________ 530 (=15)

SD _____________________ 28 _ 74 _ 82 _____ 184 ________ 400 (=18)

Damage in Tolland _______  78 _ 14 _ 94 _____ 186 ________ 640 (= 2 t)

hudsonvalley21 __________  72 _ 28 _ 84 _____ 184 ________ 448 (=16)

dmillz25 ________________ 68 _ 34 _ 78 _____ 180 ________ 612 (= 8)

DonSutherland.1 _________ 60 _ 28 _ 76 _____ 164 ________ 564 (=13)

BKViking _______________ 82 _ 44 _ 88 _ 204

__________ (-25%) ______ 62 _ 33 _ 66 _____ 161 ________ 438 (=17)

 

 

 

 

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TOTAL ANNUAL SCORES WITH LATE PENALTIES REMOVED

(not an official change, just FYI)

 

BKViking would score +132 (original six), +76 (western) and +208 (all nine)

... that would boost ranks to 4th, 10th and 5th in those three contest ranks

RodneyS would score +34, +14 and +48

... he is already first in original six, would improve one rank to 12th in west, and one rank to 4th in all nine.

Blazess556 would score +35, +12 and +47

... unchanged rank in original six, moves up one to 13th in west, and also up one in all nine to 10th.

OHweather would score +30, +8 and +38

... has only a minor effect, moves out of tie to sole 16th in west.

RJay would score +16, +8 and +24

... no upward changes, moves down one to 11th in west (see RodneyS).

Midlo Snow Maker would score +16, +6 and +22

... no effect on rankings

Wxdude64 would score +14, +7 and +21

... would move from 3rd to 2nd in original six, unchanged west, and stays 2nd in all nine but ahead of Consensus.

Stebo would score +15, +2 and +17

... no effect on rankings.

Note also H20Weather, NZucker and Quincy would have more points. Add as follows...

H2O (+43,+17,+60), NZucker (+29,+13,+42) and Quincy (+28,+14,+42).

 

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Extreme Forecast Report

On the provisional numbers, we have five new extreme forecast winners to add to the table. This makes a total of 50 wins but a few are shared so we have 43 out of 81 months through September (provisionally) that qualify as extreme forecasts. To qualify, either the extreme forecast scores highest number of points, or the second most extreme wins, in which case the extreme is counted as a loss.

DCA __ Roger Smith at +4.4 is currently leading, the final  value is +5.0. 

NYC __ This is not an extreme forecast situation with final value +3.8, high scores were tied fourth (+4.0), so NYC does not qualify.

BOS __ not an extreme forecast situation at +2.6.

ORD __ Maxim at +4.0 takes this one with the final value +5.0. 

ATL __ Maxim and Damage in Tolland will share a win here, predicted +3.5 and the final is +5.2.

IAH __ Dmillz25 has a win here with +2.0, the final value is +2.9.

DEN __ This one missed out by 0.6 when final value of +2.6 gave third highest forecast (+3.0) high score; needed to finish +3.2 or higher, in which case Mallow (+3.3) would take a win and RodneyS (+5.0) a loss, but instead DEN does not qualify for the table this month.

PHX __ Stebo with lowest forecast of --1.5 has a win here as the final anomaly is --1.8.

SEA __ No extreme forecast here, consensus was close to the final anomaly of --0.1. 

 

UPDATED STANDINGS
 

Damage in Tolland ____6-0

Midlo Snow Maker ____5-1

Maxim _____________ 5-1

RodneyS ___________ 5-3*

Rjay _______________ 4-2

Roger Smith _________4-2

Tenman Johnson _____3-0

DonSutherland.1 _____ 3-0

dmillz25 ____________ 3-0

wxallannj ___________ 2-0

ksammut ___________ 2-0

Blazess556 __________2-0

Normal _____________ 2-0

hudsonvalley21 ______ 1-0

BKViking ___________ 1-0

OHweather __________1-0

Mallow _____________ 1-0

Stebo ______________ 1-0

debeaches __________ 0-3

 

*plus one "no decision" __ RodneyS and Quincy (they were closer by forecast back in April, but lost on time penalties to the high scores.

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===<<<< UPDATED  ANNUAL SCORING JAN to SEPT 2016 >>>>===

 

FORECASTER _____ DCA_NYC_BOS __ east ___ ORD_ATL_IAH __ cent __ TOTAL __ Best scores

 

01 RodneyS ________ 625 . 652 . 640 __ 1917 ___ 547 . 636 . 672 __ 1835 __ 3752 __ 221031 . 2 . 1

02 DonSutherland.1 __ 585 . 695 . 620 __ 1900 ___ 543 . 612 . 652 __ 1807 __ 3707 __ 010011 . 1. 1 ..MAY

03 wxdude64 _______ 596 . 659 . 656 __ 1911 ___ 554 . 600 . 636 __ 1790 __ 3701 __ 111111 .1 . 0

 

04 Consensus_______ 599 . 670 . 600 __ 1869 ___ 564 . 618 . 608 __ 1790 __ 3659 __ 000000 . 0 . 0

 

04 Damage in Tolland _647 . 646 . 596 __ 1889 ___ 522 . 662 . 518 __ 1702 __ 3591 __ 211020 . 1 . 1..JUL

05 Mallow___________535 . 646 . 624 __ 1805 ___ 592 . 524 . 654 __ 1770 __ 3575 __ 100001 . 0 . 0

06 BKViking ________ 505 . 636 . 591 __ 1732 ___ 614 . 621 . 577 __ 1812 __ 3544 __ 000210 . 0 . 1 ..JAN

t 07 hudsonvalley21 __ 545 . 612 . 604 __ 1761 ___ 652 . 562 . 550 __ 1764 __ 3525 __ 000100 . 0 . 0

t 07 blazess556 ______531 . 650 . 624 __ 1805 ___ 469 . 649 . 602 __ 1720 __ 3525 __ 001011 . 0 . 0

09 Maxim __________ 525 . 600 . 692 __ 1817 ___ 468 . 586 . 626 __ 1680 __ 3497 __ 102111 . 1 . 2 ..MAR,SEP

10 wxallannj ________ 557 . 642 . 606 __ 1805 ___ 524 . 534 . 622 __ 1680 __ 3485 __ 010100 . 0 . 1 ..APR

 

11 Rjay ____________602 . 597 . 541 __ 1740 ___ 539 . 649 . 497 __ 1685 __ 3425 __ 121111 . 1 . 1 ..AUG

12 Stebo___________ 538 . 549 . 536 __ 1623 ___ 486 . 611 . 604 __ 1701 __ 3324 __ 001001 . 1 . 1

13 Roger Smith _____ 581 . 550 . 522 __ 1653 ___ 476 . 548 . 598 __ 1622 __ 3275 __ 300001 . 0 . 0

14 dmillz25_________ 534 . 574 . 526 __ 1634 ___ 554 . 574 . 500 __ 1628 __ 3262 __ 111201 . 1 . 0

15 MidloSnowMaker__ 522 . 588 . 554 __ 1664 ___ 554 . 538 . 487 __ 1579 __ 3243 __ 011010 . 1 . 0 ..FEB

16 SD _____________499 . 584 . 528 __ 1611 ___ 498 . 526 . 584 __ 1608 __ 3219 __ 000110. 0 . 0

17 Tenman Johnson _ 511 . 538 . 562 __ 1611 ___ 510 . 528 . 512 __ 1550 __ 3161 __ 210100 . 1 . 0

18 Tom____________ 507 . 542 . 510 __ 1559 ___ 452 . 496 . 574 __ 1522 __ 3081 __ 000000 . 0 . 1 .. JUN

19 OHweather*______487 . 607 . 559 __ 1653 ___ 397 . 541 . 484 __ 1422 __ 3075 __ 000010. 0 . 0

 

19 Normal__________ 446 . 484 . 446 __ 1376 ___ 442 . 390 . 602 __ 1434 __ 2810 __ 000001 . 1 . 0

 

20 ksammut^ _______ 413 . 397 . 360 __ 1170 ___ 269 . 338 . 346 ___ 953 __ 2123 __ 111001 . 1 . 0

______________________________________________

* missed one month (Sept)

^missed 3 months (July, August, Sept) ... other partial scores can be found in earlier tables. 

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== << Updated  Annual Scoring for western and all nine contests Jan to Sep 2016 >> ==

 

FORECASTER __________ DEN_PHX_SEA __ TOTALS _ best scores (mo) _ All Nine Totals __ best scores

 

01 wxallannj _____________ 528 _ 560 _ 668 ____ 1756 ______ 0 0 1 _______5241 (= 3) ___ APR

02 DonSutherland.1 _______ 508 _ 474 _ 718 ____ 1700 ______ 0 0 2 _ Apr __5407 (= 1) ___ MAY

 

03 Consensus ___________ 556 _ 498 _ 626 ____ 1680 ______ 0 0 1 _ Jul ___ 5339 (= 2) ___ JUL

 

03 Midlo Snow Maker______ 477 _ 507 _ 674 ____ 1658 ______ 1 0 2 _ Mar __ 4901 (=12) ___ FEB

04 Mallow _______________452 _ 521 _ 674 ____ 1647 ______ 1 1 0 _ Sep __ 5222 (= 4)

05 wxdude64 ____________ 533 _ 493 _ 596 ____ 1622 ______ 0 1 2 _ Jan __ 5323 (= 2) ___ JAN

06 hudsonvalley21 ________ 563 _ 452 _ 591 ____ 1606 ______ 0 1 0 _ Jul __ 5131 (= 7)

07 Damage in Tolland ______511 _ 396 _ 678 ____ 1585 ______ 1 0 1 _ Jun __ 5176 (= 6) ___ JUN

t 08 Rjay ________________ 458 _ 479 _ 615 ____ 1552 ______ 0 0 1 _______ 4977 (=10) ___ AUG

t 08 Maxim ______________ 394 _ 484 _ 674 ____ 1552 ______ 0 1 2 _ Sep __ 5049 (= 8) _ MAR,SEP

10 Roger Smith __________ 390 _ 534 _ 566 ____ 1490 ______ 1 2 0 _ Aug __ 4765 (=13)

 

11 BKViking _____________ 492 _ 421 _ 556 ____ 1469 ______ 0 0 0 _______ 5013 (= 9)

13 RodneyS _____________ 451 _ 455 _ 538 ____ 1444 ______ 2 0 0 _ May __ 5196 (= 5)

13 Tenman Johnson _______ 487 _ 552 _ 404 ____1443 ______ 2 1 1 _ Feb __ 4604 (=14)

14 blazess556 ____________ 473 _ 495 _ 466 ____1434 ______ 1 0 0 _______ 4959 (=11)

 

15 Normal _______________ 510 _ 444 _ 424 ____ 1378 _____ 1 0 1 _ Aug ___ 4188 (=20)

 

15 OHweather* ___________ 410 _ 464 _ 484 ____ 1358 ______ 1 0 1 _ Jul  __ 4433 (=17) ___ JUL

16 SD ___________________440 _ 440 _ 474 ____1354 ______ 0 0 1 _  Jul  __ 4573 (=15 t)

17 Tom __________________ 471 _ 431 _ 444 ____1346 _____ 0 0 0 ________ 4427 (=18)

18 dmillz25 _______________433 _ 336 _ 542 ____1311 _____ 0 0 0 ________ 4573 (=15 t)

19 Stebo ________________ 397 _ 424 _ 276 _____1097 _____ 0 1 0 _______ 4421 (=19)

20 ksammut^ _____________ 306 _ 322 _ 220 _____ 848 _____ 0 1 0 _______ 2971 (=20)

______________________________________________________________________

* missed one month (Sept)

^ missed 3 months (July, August, Sept) >> other part-time entrants are listed in earlier annual reports.

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