I'll see you in September

[ORH_wxman]

13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

should be clear - heh - that wasn't really a frost map; it was a winter lows that i lazily used, but .. i just used it as a rough outline of where frost zones could align. colored annotated regions seemed like minimal guess.

there are apps and/or climo sources everywhere on the web within a minimal time using hand-helds ... or the rapidly antiquating PCs (ha) if someone want to find their locations first average date for frost -

but the reason why i was asking is that i thought it was kind of ironic that we are moving along in a warm hemispheric look and then out of nowhere (esque) we have this mid autumnal air mass sliding down eastern Ontario and trying to clip NE.  yet, despite the fore-said look and to a great deal verification, somehow, someway... we manage an average frost date? - wow. 

it's almost like a synoptic scaled backdoor event.  the colder thickness core passes well NE of us, but confluence between it and the mean flow/ridge over ~ ORD generates/intensifies that high pressure in mid-riff/E Canada, and gets us sort of hybrid involved there.  it's also interesting that any front that really demarcates the entrance to that air mass is rather diffused comparatively on the charts.  NE just sort of defaults into anticyclonic flow, which then intensifies as the high strengthens while moving by to the N.  interesting.   i was noticing the 06z GFS with pearled out high pressure from NW Ontario to NS D' 7-8-9, and the season's first modeled 'damming' signal nosing down.  give us 45 days and that's a icer  

overall though, that's a potential drought buster pattern there in the late middle range.  kind of makes sense in a 'holistic' point of view - we get some kind of odd pattern modulation that supports polar dome genesis to set spatially ideally and coming along with that sort of paradigm shift, we have episodic overunning rains.   let's hope it pans out -

nevertheless, the overnight runs still reasonably coincident with that sort of large scale evolution ... and so it appears the region is destined for the first "real" (not because media thought it cool to spin up...) shot of fall.   ..and yes, replete with frost on the punkin's

 

Oh yeah I wasn't referring to your climate zone map specifically. Just that frost dates can be tough to map out as some nook can have a frost date 2-3 weeks earlier than the top of an exposed hill less than a mile away. Even climate zones are not easy to map with great detail given the terrain.  

 

As for this cool shot modeled...yeah it's interesting that it sort of occurs in an otherwise warm signal for the east. We get that block that just forms rapidly northwest of hudsons bay to assist in the cold delivery. Normally that deep trough producing a Rockies snowstorm is warm for us. 

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Oh yeah I wasn't referring to your climate zone map specifically. Just that frost dates can be tough to map out as some nook can have a frost date 2-3 weeks earlier than the top of an exposed hill less than a mile away. Even climate zones are not easy to map with great detail given the terrain.  

 

As for this cool shot modeled...yeah it's interesting that it sort of occurs in an otherwise warm signal for the east. We get that block that just forms rapidly northwest of hudsons bay to assist in the cold delivery. Normally that deep trough producing a Rockies snowstorm is warm for us. 

let's hope that happens all winter - heh.

snow and ice after snow and ice finding ways to happens when it shouldn't - kind of like getting a hot summer that cleverly found ways to never break a record when the signals offered plenty .. 

 

[CoastalWx]

GFS is darn chilly into next week. Impressive srfc-850mb delta T near the cape for some OE showers. 

[tamarack]

13 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

It's maybe a couple of days early. A place like CON actually has a mean first freeze date of 9/27.

It's a good radiator, but that seems early for a freeze.  My frost pocket has 9/28 as the median for first 28 or lower, 9/18 for first frost.  Only 18 years record, though, and they were not the coolest 18 of the past 100.

[dendrite]

11 minutes ago, tamarack said:

It's a good radiator, but that seems early for a freeze.  My frost pocket has 9/28 as the median for first 28 or lower, 9/18 for first frost.  Only 18 years record, though, and they were not the coolest 18 of the past 100.

I'm not sure which previous decade of normals it was, but I recall CON having 9/21 or 9/22 for the first 32F. Maybe it was 61-90? One of those years in the 60s CON pulled a 29F in August. lol

[Baroclinic Zone]

27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GFS is darn chilly into next week. Impressive srfc-850mb delta T near the cape for some OE showers. 

Lollis to 90.

[dendrite]

10 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Lollis to 90.

It's like 90 hrs of < 0C 850s for CAR. lol

[Typhoon Tip]

we have drought-stressed foliage induced premature e-coloration (haha) going on...

that aside, this cool snap should really be a nice trigger to get the deeper color expression going -

[dendrite]

Breathe it in.

GFSX MOS (MEX)
 K1P1   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   9/21/2016  1200 UTC                       
 FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192      
      THU 22| FRI 23| SAT 24| SUN 25| MON 26| TUE 27| WED 28|THU CLIMO
 N/X  50  82| 52  69| 48  62| 38  59| 37  59| 37  60| 37  63| 41 40 64
 TMP  56  66| 54  58| 50  51| 42  48| 40  48| 40  48| 40  52| 45      
 DPT  53  58| 53  56| 47  42| 38  41| 37  42| 39  40| 38  48| 44      
 CLD  CL  PC| OV  OV| OV  CL| CL  PC| CL  CL| CL  CL| CL  CL| CL      
 WND   2   3|  2   6|  4  13|  8  14|  5  11|  3  15|  2   4|  1      

[forkyfork]

i might get below 50

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

I'm not sure which previous decade of normals it was, but I recall CON having 9/21 or 9/22 for the first 32F. Maybe it was 61-90? One of those years in the 60s CON pulled a 29F in August. lol

No August frosts here, though I did have 30° on 9/1/2002.  In Ft. Kent, 1978 featured a 44-day "growing season" with frost in every month.  That was my driest summer since 1966 (in NNJ - still NYC's driest met summer), and the clear skies and low rh certainly helped with the morning cool.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

  I hope the cold shot is real but I'll believe it when I feel it.  I'm not going to be shocked if daytime high temperatures come in 3 - 4° above guidance.

[snowman21]

4 hours ago, dendrite said:

I'm not sure which previous decade of normals it was, but I recall CON having 9/21 or 9/22 for the first 32F. Maybe it was 61-90? One of those years in the 60s CON pulled a 29F in August. lol

Under the 1971-2000 normals the average date was 9/21. Under the 1981-2010 normals it's 9/30.

[HoarfrostHubb]

43 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

  I hope the cold shot is real but I'll believe it when I feel it.  I'm not going to be shocked if daytime high temperatures come in 3 - 4° above guidance.

I hear you on that.  High temps don't usually get as hot as progged in hot regimes nor as cold in the cold ones

Cooler than lately but it is end of September. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

And I have my doubts about this forecast

Sunday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 34.

[powderfreak]

47 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

  I hope the cold shot is real but I'll believe it when I feel it.  I'm not going to be shocked if daytime high temperatures come in 3 - 4° above guidance.

This time of year the amount of sun will make all the difference.  If it's sunny, take the over especially with dry airmass and compressional heating in the valleys under 500ft.  Your dews might get lower than progged while highs are a few degrees higher.

I'd be fairly shocked though if H85 temps verify 3-4 degrees warmer than progged now that we are within a few days.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

And I have my doubts about this forecast

Sunday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 34.

If anyone in SNE hits that it's you or maaaybe me or metherb under ideal radiator conditions.  (Bob does pretty well radiating too)

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

This time of year the amount of sun will make all the difference.  If it's sunny, take the over especially with dry airmass and compressional heating in the valleys under 500ft.  Your dews might get lower than progged while highs are a few degrees higher.

I'd be fairly shocked though if H85 temps verify 3-4 degrees warmer than progged now that we are within a few days.

Good point.  Either way Oct should be short cold shots mixed with AN stretches. 

[dendrite]

2 hours ago, snowman21 said:

Under the 1971-2000 normals the average date was 9/21. Under the 1981-2010 normals it's 9/30.

That's quite a big shift. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

2 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

And I have my doubts about this forecast

Sunday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 34.

 

58 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

If anyone in SNE hits that it's you or maaaybe me or metherb under ideal radiator conditions.  (Bob does pretty well radiating too)

39F is BOXs current forecast.  If that holds I'll take the under by a few degrees here.  Say 35-36F.

[Damage In Tolland]

This doesn't seem like the kind of delivery for radiators to do well. There's going to be wind and the brunt of the chill shunts east . It wouldn't be shocking if no one in SNE stays above 40

[powderfreak]

lol at the thermal gradient on Friday... here's the NAM temps valid 18z Friday.  Low to mid 50s in BTV CWA while its in the upper 70s and lower 80s for ALB-BOS region. 

30 degree temperature difference between BTV and BDL...but the most striking one is GFL dropping into the upper 50s while ALB is around 80F.  That's like a 45 minute drive and a 20 degree gradient.  Dropping a degree every 2 minutes on your drive up I-87 as modeled haha.

[CoastalWx]

That front will come in with some good winds and plummet temps Friday evening. Almost back door front behavior.

[powderfreak]

17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That front will come in with some good winds and plummet temps Friday evening. Almost back door front behavior.

Yeah with that type of thermal gradient that should be fun to watch.  Like sharp 15-20F drops on N/NW wind.  That prog looks much more cold season-like with the low level drain down the Champlain Valley as the front has less resistance in that direction than going over the Greens/Whites.

During these sometimes the southern Champlain Valley like west of RUT can have the sharpest and quickest drops...heats up well in the warm sector but when cold comes south down the valley it can move in much quicker there than elsewhere. 

[OceanStWx]

10 hours ago, tamarack said:

It's a good radiator, but that seems early for a freeze.  My frost pocket has 9/28 as the median for first 28 or lower, 9/18 for first frost.  Only 18 years record, though, and they were not the coolest 18 of the past 100.

 

10 hours ago, dendrite said:

I'm not sure which previous decade of normals it was, but I recall CON having 9/21 or 9/22 for the first 32F. Maybe it was 61-90? One of those years in the 60s CON pulled a 29F in August. lol

Yeah, I'm not talking killing the growing season (i.e. hard freeze at 28 or lower) but the first 32. 

[Damage In Tolland]

After our mild down this weekend..we've got a west moving typhoon in the pacific..all ENS torching first 2 weeks of Oct in tandem

 

[dendrite]

23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

After our mild down this weekend..we've got a west moving typhoon in the pacific..all ENS torching first 2 weeks of Oct in tandem

 

Should be an epic stretch of COC. 

[masonwoods]

17 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Should be an epic stretch of COC. 

Is that really a "Torch" signal (temps in the 70s) with high pressure coming out of southeast Canada?

[CoastalWx]

Stretch that COC as long as you can. 

[Damage In Tolland]

22 minutes ago, masonwoods said:

Is that really a "Torch" signal (temps in the 70s) with high pressure coming out of southeast Canada?

Well when normals are in the upper 50's and 60's..75-80 seems to be a torch.