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I'll see you in September


J Paul Gordon

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5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I'm going to go out a limb here and say if it stays warm people will keep their pools open longer to enjoy the beautiful weather.

If it were just me I would close it, leaves are falling pretty steadily now and the stronger winds of September tend to bring more debris in. Shorter days less direct sun and it cools off very quickly. The cooler low dews days mixed in like those coming up really drop the temp but the grandkids will not mind so i decided to wait, otherwise a couple of hours of 80's ain't enough for me.

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33 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

If it were just me I would close it, leaves are falling pretty steadily now and the stronger winds of September tend to bring more debris in. Shorter days less direct sun and it cools off very quickly. The cooler low dews days mixed in like those coming up really drop the temp but the grandkids will not mind so i decided to wait, otherwise a couple of hours of 80's ain't enough for me.

Ahh yeah I forgot about the leaves...that's gotta be a huge pain in the arse.

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2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That's a few days of 90's late next week in usual spots with dews. It's August all over..September version

Good luck getting a few (3) 90+ days at this point. Latest third-to-last 90+ dates at BDL:

1. 9/21/1914 (began a 3-day heatwave)

2. 9/15/2015

3. 9/11/1931

3. 9/11/1983

5. 9/10/1965

6. 9/8/2007

7. 9/7/2015

8. 9/5/1961

9. 9/4/1971

10. 9/2/1973

 

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On 9/14/2016 at 7:22 AM, weathafella said:

Kevin, Novembers are about the same as they we're when I was a kid 60 years ago.

We have had some big swings in recent Novembers, with some very cold months and some very mild ones. Some Novembers have been excessively warm in recent years. Just looking at NYC/Central Park, Nov 2015 was +5.1, Nov 2011 was +4.2, and Nov 2009 was also very warm.

On the other hand, we had three consecutive cold Novembers from 2012-2014. Those departures were -3.8F, -2.5F, -2.4F. Some notable events were the major snowstorm on Nov 7-8, 2012 that dropped 4.7" in NYC and 8-10" in the suburbs; driving home from work was absolutely treacherous in that post-Sandy cold spell and Nor'easter. Considering average high temperatures are still in the upper 50s at that time of year, it was a very impressive storm, and the cold was strong enough to keep snow on the ground for several days, even more impressive. Another notable stretch was the late Nov 2013 cold snap; NYC had dailies of 30/23 on the 24th and 35/23 on the 25th, departures of -18 and -16, and it is very rare to keep below freezing during the entire day that early in the season as average highs are around 52F. Nov 2014 also had 10 straight days of negative departures, with the highlight being the 36/22 daily on the 18th, which is a -18F departure. 

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22 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

I doubt that blocking in northern Canada/Greenland would produce a ridge over us in December...but never say never.

That trough would likely be broader and encompass more of the Northern Tier of the CONUS with the longer wavelengths in December and the rest of the winter. Right now, we have very short wavelengths so there is "room" for another ridge. The PAC pattern as depicted is not super favorable but the Arctic/Greenland blocking could offset the lower heights in the Pacific. 

The pattern depicted looks like something we might see in a La Nina...some weak ridging over the Aleutians, with the strongest troughing over the PAC NW/Northern Rockies with that area of lower heights extending across the Northern Tier of the CONUS. The CPC equal chances/above normal/below normal maps depict this pattern developing with below average temperatures showing up over the Northern Plains in the December-March period, as well as warmer than normal weather in the Southern Tier of the CONUS. It looks as though it could be a strong gradient winter with the falling PDO/La Nina leading to an Aleutian ridge/PAC NW trough couplet along with generally cold weather in the northern Plains and Upper Midwest, sometimes bleeding into the East along the axis of SW flow events. 

 

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

THE BUILDING RIDGE SHOULD ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST, KEEPING SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH IN THE CARDS, WITH HIGHS NEAR 90F WHICH IS ROUGHLY 10F ABOVE

So who in our region averages 80F for highs next week?

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That's only to 48 hrs. Monday is probably more rain in SNE. I don't disagree with specifically taking the under on .75.....but you and many others may easily get more. Monday really depends on how that tropical PWAT plume from Julia interacts with the front and upper level support. Some will certainly not get much..others soaked.

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heh... i have my doubts there.  

there's a very obvious emerging trend to increase the meridional product here - i.e., blocking pattern.  it's not even that new; it's been increasing in frequency and varying models for week now.   

these blocks (if so) will tend to build polar highs and basically the era of subtropical ridging appears to have a time-visible lease, as far as extending through the 40th parallel on average.    Take a look N of Main on the GFS's 18z run for 60+ hours... that's basically a sleet column there.  geographically that's right there like not far way man.    

 

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5 hours ago, dendrite said:

GFS looks a little frosty here this time next week. Lots of time for that to modify though.

540 line gets to C/NH-VT this run Sun AM with another s/w spawning some higher terrain precip. I wonder how many in NNE can see their first mangled flakes out of this.

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11 minutes ago, dendrite said:

540 line gets to C/NH-VT this run Sun AM with another s/w spawning some higher terrain precip. I wonder how many in NNE can see their first mangled flakes out of this.

 

Picnic tables are looking ripe for a coating on that setup...maybe even a little more if everything worked perfectly.

 

I'm expecting the cold shot to modify some though, so in the end it will probably just be a lot of frost/freeze advisories in the usual spots.

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