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I'll see you in September

J Paul Gordon

By J Paul Gordon,
in New England

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
Just now, powderfreak said:

Yeah this fall already has that feel of endless nice weather...where it's still like sunny and 60s/70s in October.  Sort of like Florida in January, lol.  Lots of H85 temps of +3 to +13 for like 6 weeks straight.

I'm loving this stretch. Some warmth tomorrow, and then right back into a wonderful airmass. 

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Well to me nights that radiate are fake cold. I mean last night Fryeberg and Berlin, NH got into the 30's. Most places in SNE were in 50's and a few radiators got into the 40's. To me radiators don't count. They are able to decouple even in a HHH environment . A shot across bow  would be Regionwide BN for highs and lows under sunny skies. And if you've noticed.. The end of the week cool down which did look BNif you bought op models has now trended N to slightly AN before going right back solidly AN

I get what you're saying, but an air mass also has to be cool in general to get a good radiating site to below normal temps in the morning. You'll typically only radiate to around 3 to 5C degrees below 850 mb temps, so that needs to be in place to get the fake cold in the first place.

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J Paul Gordon

J Paul Gordon

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Posted
1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

  Most agree on a warm October. I have seen/heard conflicting opinions about November and December. Some have thought the risk for cooler November and December, some think warm right through December. If you believe analogs, they are cooler for November and December. 

I'm gonna go with the analogs, since that is what I want to happen. Quite selective when it comes down to analogs. Those I like are inerrant; those I don't are false science. 

Then, again, on a weather/climate forum I guess I want the science no matter what.

Any good analogs for this year, though?

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Thats every ASOS that isn't at 1,000ft on a hill top then is a radiator? 

That's like 90% of the SNE sites (and population) are radiators?  I'm confused on the definition you are using, but sounds like it's anyone that gets colder than a hilltop at night?

I thought we were talking about places that stand out as radiators like SLK/HIE style. Honestly BDL/FIT/IJD don't strike me as insane radiators.  That's just like run of the mill ASOS locations.  Sort of like I never considered ALB a radiator but it would be if BDL is one.

We can't have gray areas here on this board, you either are or aren't a radiator.

But really an ASOS is either in a hilly location that will struggle to decouple, or it will radiate at night. There are just certain sites that radiate better than others. HIE might be colder, but SFM might radiate better relative to surrounding obs. FIT may be a relative low spot, but cold air will tend to drain towards Lancaster and Harvard down the Nashua River. BDL is "in" the river valley, but it's also on the bluff above the river, so not an ideal radiation spot. SNE sites like OWD and TAN can really radiate nicely though.

CWA.jpeg

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eekuasepinniW

eekuasepinniW

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

We can't have gray areas here on this board, you either are or aren't a radiator.

But really an ASOS is either in a hilly location that will struggle to decouple, or it will radiate at night. There are just certain sites that radiate better than others. HIE might be colder, but SFM might radiate better relative to surrounding obs. FIT may be a relative low spot, but cold air will tend to drain towards Lancaster and Harvard down the Nashua River. BDL is "in" the river valley, but it's also on the bluff above the river, so not an ideal radiation spot. SNE sites like OWD and TAN can really radiate nicely though.

CWA.jpeg

I never realized that Keene was in a tiny sinkhole like that.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
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1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

I get what you're saying, but an air mass also has to be cool in general to get a good radiating site to below normal temps in the morning. You'll typically only radiate to around 3 to 5C degrees below 850 mb temps, so that needs to be in place to get the fake cold in the first place.

Yeah it has to be colder aloft to radiate into the 30s than it is when it's HHH and you radiate to 59F.  

It shouldn't be that hard so I'm not sure why you'd broadbrush excluding radiating sites (anything not on a hilltop I guess) from seeing if it's getting colder or not (shots across the bow type stuff).  

I mean I see it both ways everyday...we radiate in town and not at the office which is mid-slope 1,550ft.  However I can tell when it's a cooler airmass at both locations, it's not hard if you know the different climates.  It's only 65F during the day there instead of 69F at MVL.  

Even DIT said he was impressed he got to 53F....so he knew it was probably coldest airmass in months. 

To me its all a progression...this is how it happens in September like Dendrite said.  Then in October following a strong low we will get that day when it's 50F at 3pm and breezy on Mt Tolland while BDL is 55F.  Then it'll be real.

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qg_omega

qg_omega

Posted
Posted
21 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah BTV's been talking about frost for the colder Adirondacks and NE Kingdom of VT...wouldn't surprise me if we get the usual first frost advisories for the favored zones.

Either way, time to enjoy this phenomenal late-summer weather...it's as boring as it gets but is almost intoxicating being outside.

Near Term...Temps will warm to slightly above normal values with highs upper 60s mountains towns to mid 70s warmer valleys. All covered well in current grids. Have a great day and enjoy this beautiful late summer day.

 

How does Saturday look, have a wedding at the sagamore on Lake George

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, eekuasepinniW said:

Perfectly illustrates why I'm not allowed to have screamin' southeasters.

 

18 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Muchos gracias. 

It's easy to see too why it's so difficult to scour out the cold around 1P1 and LCI-Conway-IZG. That Chatham NH davis site is in a weenie spot for cold. He had mid/upr 30s this morning. 

Yep. If you start WAA off the water and it hits the elevation around the Ossipees the low level cold in the Merrimack and Lakes Region won't even "feel" it as the southeasterlies ride up and over the cold dome.

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tamarack

tamarack

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15 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Well to me nights that radiate are fake cold. I mean last night Fryeberg and Berlin, NH got into the 30's. Most places in SNE were in 50's and a few radiators got into the 40's. To me radiators don't count. They are able to decouple even in a HHH environment . A shot across bow  would be Regionwide BN for highs and lows under sunny skies. And if you've noticed.. The end of the week cool down which did look BNif you bought op models has now trended N to slightly AN before going right back solidly AN

Color me flabbergasted.  I thought that a region's climatological data was a combo of mountains, valleys, and everything in between.  Now I read opinions that places like my frost pocket are fakes, and don't count, simply because one doesn't live there.  The good radiator obs are no more fake than your transpirationally-fed dews; both are merely the actual conditions being observed, and tossing either because "it's not where I live" seems illogical.

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mreaves

mreaves

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Color me flabbergasted.  I thought that a region's climatological data was a combo of mountains, valleys, and everything in between.  Now I read opinions that places like my frost pocket are fakes, and don't count, simply because one doesn't live there.  The good radiator obs are no more fake than your transpirationally-fed dews; both are merely the actual conditions being observed, and tossing either because "it's not where I live" seems illogical.

For tamarack, this is a vicious beat down.  

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
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18 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Color me flabbergasted.  I thought that a region's climatological data was a combo of mountains, valleys, and everything in between.  Now I read opinions that places like my frost pocket are fakes, and don't count, simply because one doesn't live there.  The good radiator obs are no more fake than your transpirationally-fed dews; both are merely the actual conditions being observed, and tossing either because "it's not where I live" seems illogical.

I am truly sorry. Radiation cold is serious and real

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

I kept the color scale the same so that it wouldn't differ from the SNE map, but I had to dial back the top end of the elevation scale. The national default is like 16,000 feet and that's just not relevant around here. So I think the white part of the scale started around 3,000 feet.

I think it's closer to 2,000', at least in N.Maine, where nothing approaches very close to 3K north of the Baxter Mountains - Norway Bluff at 2,700 is tops.  That patch of white about due west of FVE tops out at a bit over 2,200' on the Canadian side, just over 2K on T18R13 in the Little Black River drainage, only spot in my old work area (NW tip of Maine) that reaches 2K, though both Deboullie and Rocky Mountains are only a few dozen feet shy.

And as a follow to my previous post (along with an apology for the "Get off my lawn!!!" attitude), I'm enjoying this month's wx immensely, except a couple of overnight downpours to make it perfect.  Only 2 days, 3rd and 11th, have had BN maxima, and for the next 7 days or so only Thursday looks to have real BN-max potential.  September (in years when TCs are minimal for our area) often seems to be a "pause in transition" month, with convection winding down and fall storms yet to commence.   September is my sunniest month, on average, with August a not-too-distant 2nd and February well back in 3rd.  Nov-Dec are near twins for least sunny.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
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29 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Color me flabbergasted.  I thought that a region's climatological data was a combo of mountains, valleys, and everything in between.  Now I read opinions that places like my frost pocket are fakes, and don't count, simply because one doesn't live there.  The good radiator obs are no more fake than your transpirationally-fed dews; both are merely the actual conditions being observed, and tossing either because "it's not where I live" seems illogical.

:weight_lift:

The north remembers...

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, tamarack said:

I think it's closer to 2,000', at least in N.Maine, where nothing approaches very close to 3K north of the Baxter Mountains - Norway Bluff at 2,700 is tops.  That patch of white about due west of FVE tops out at a bit over 2,200' on the Canadian side, just over 2K on T18R13 in the Little Black River drainage.

 

And as a follow to my pre3vious post, I'm enjoying this month's wx immensely, except a couple of overnight downpours to make it perfect.  Only 2 days, 3rd and 11th, have had BN maxima, and for the next 7 days or so only Thursday looks to have real BN-max potential.  September (in years when TCs are minimal for our area) often seems to be a "pause in transition" month, with convection winding down and fall storms yet to commence.   September is my sunniest month, on average, with August a not-too-distant 2nd and February well back in 3rd.  Nov-Dec are near twins for least sunny.

Good catch, I stand corrected and still have that pane up on AWIPS and it is indeed maxed out at 1,900 feet.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, tamarack said:

Color me flabbergasted.  I thought that a region's climatological data was a combo of mountains, valleys, and everything in between.  Now I read opinions that places like my frost pocket are fakes, and don't count, simply because one doesn't live there.  The good radiator obs are no more fake than your transpirationally-fed dews; both are merely the actual conditions being observed, and tossing either because "it's not where I live" seems illogical.

Logical and DIT when it comes to weather are mutually exclusive entities sometimes.

Dont worry, a lot of this discussion makes me think the KFS has switched from positive to negative, he just now hates when the lower elevations around him are colder this time of year.  

It ain't real cold if it doesn't follow the natural order of "up and in" as being coldest.

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