I'll see you in September

[powderfreak]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Ahh the old wx app. Don't look at models or the +16c or anything 

Ahh the NWS forecast.  Let's not even look at that anymore.  I'll trust the salesman over the MET.

What do you think your highs will be?  I'll mail you Heady if your house goes 85-90F this week.  If you fail to hit 85F you mail me Treehouse.

[powderfreak]

29 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'll take the under a bit in a lot of areas. Of course unless on a runway in CT.

The seasonal change is getting to him....it's like the idea of weeks of nice weather annoys him to no end.

In all seriousness Wednesday will be the warmest day of the next 7-10 most likely, but the vast majority of days will be near perfect for the general public.  If you ask folks for perfect weather, this week's NOAA forecast (though I guess we should look at models because they aren't apparently) is probably pretty darn close.

[CoastalWx]

39 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The seasonal change is getting to him....it's like the idea of weeks of nice weather annoys him to no end.

In all seriousness Wednesday will be the warmest day of the next 7-10 most likely, but the vast majority of days will be near perfect for the general public.  If you ask folks for perfect weather, this week's NOAA forecast (though I guess we should look at models because they aren't apparently) is probably pretty darn close.

Those demons inside him are getting to him. He wants to change teams, but he's unsure. Soon, El Diablo frio will take hold and change him for 6 months.

  Feels epic outside. Just makes me in such a better mood. Even my wife can't believe how grumpy I am when it's hot.  I hate it unless I'm beachside.

 

 

 

[ApacheTrout]

Can't he just have his own forum or topic and all his posts be moved there?  This banter about adjectives and hyperbole in a 'discussion' thread is tiresome.  I was away for several days and checked in this morning to see what's in store for the next week, only to find another thread derailed by DIT.  Frankly, it makes this forum less desirable to visit.

[Damage In Tolland]

11 minutes ago, ApacheTrout said:

Can't he just have his own forum or topic and all his posts be moved there?  This banter about adjectives and hyperbole in a 'discussion' thread is tiresome.  I was away for several days and checked in this morning to see what's in store for the next week, only to find another thread derailed by DIT.  Frankly, it makes this forum less desirable to visit.

You are absolutely one miserable person. You do nothing but whine and complain. Man up and either put me on block or deal with things  in life that you may not like..

What are your normals for mid September?

[powderfreak]

16 minutes ago, ApacheTrout said:

Can't he just have his own forum or topic and all his posts be moved there?  This banter about adjectives and hyperbole in a 'discussion' thread is tiresome.  I was away for several days and checked in this morning to see what's in store for the next week, only to find another thread derailed by DIT.  Frankly, it makes this forum less desirable to visit.

It's not derailed, it's just a different point of opinion which is part of discussion threads.  

I like how it drives discussion...we can go days without much and then one DIT post will lead to 3 pages of posts over the course of an afternoon haha.

[powderfreak]

18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You are absolutely one miserable person. You do nothing but whine and complain. Man up and either put me on block or deal with things  in life that you may not like..

What are your normals for mid September?

Probably 73/53 range or a degree warmer based on BTV and his location.  Yesterday 81/53 was +4 at BTV and that's just an awesome day.  Over here we seem to run like 10F lower than BTV these days haha.

It's a beautiful above normal pattern in the means, though if forecasts pan out the we are probably a touch below normal Thurs-Sunday after Tues/Wed have the largest positive departures.

Theres certainly a disconnect that seems to say if it's above normal it can't be "nice" out, or that people should be miserable since it's AN.  Just think of May...+5 is stunning weather.

 

[tamarack]

Farmington forecast from GYX for tomorrow and Wednesday:  78/48 and 78/56.  Both AN as the 1981-2010 norms are more like 71/46.  If dews climb above 60 on Wednesday it will feel a bit stuffy, but only because it follows 2 days of TD 40s.  Then a cooldown for late week.  Though the models have come back from earlier cold, it still would not surprise me to see Friday AM frost advisories for some of the colder parts of NNE.  It's a very rare year when we get past mid-Sept w/o any such advisories/warnings for that part of the region.

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, tamarack said:

Farmington forecast from GYX for tomorrow and Wednesday:  78/48 and 78/56.  Both AN as the 1981-2010 norms are more like 71/46.  If dews climb above 60 on Wednesday it will feel a bit stuffy, but only because it follows 2 days of TD 40s.  Then a cooldown for late week.  Though the models have come back from earlier cold, it still would not surprise me to see Friday AM frost advisories for some of the colder parts of NNE.  It's a very rare year when we get past mid-Sept w/o any such advisories/warnings for that part of the region.

Yeah BTV's been talking about frost for the colder Adirondacks and NE Kingdom of VT...wouldn't surprise me if we get the usual first frost advisories for the favored zones.

Either way, time to enjoy this phenomenal late-summer weather...it's as boring as it gets but is almost intoxicating being outside.

Near Term...Temps will warm to slightly above normal values with highs upper 60s mountains towns to mid 70s warmer valleys. All covered well in current grids. Have a great day and enjoy this beautiful late summer day.

 

[dendrite]

12z MEX has 32F for SLK Fri morning.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

I'll ride the DIT train this month.  September look warm with just intermittent cool downs to normal. 

I can see W SNE being warmest overall.  

[CoastalWx]

I think most of us agreed on a warm September. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Quite a few posters here seemed to think shots across bows with stretches of chill 

[powderfreak]

18 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I'll ride the DIT train this month.  September look warm with just intermittent cool downs to normal. 

I can see W SNE being warmest overall.  

Yup, though I haven't seen anyone anywhere call for a below normal September.

Should be a beautiful month.  I love this weather for working outside on the mountain. 70-80F in town and 50-60F at the picnic tables.

So far this month we've averaged a high of 78F and a low of 50F...+3.3 from the long term mean but 78/50 is about as nice as it gets.

Its not going to snow in September so might as well prolong the nice weather...better than 51F with a driving rain.

[powderfreak]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Quite a few posters here seemed to think shots across bows with stretches of chill 

What would you call "shots across the bow"?  Just curious.  This morning was probably one, and then Friday another one if some NNE radiators see Frost Advisories.  

But it's all subjective...if you are looking for highs in the 50s, then yeah not a shot across the bow.  Or if it has to be sustained below normal then yeah, no shots across the bow.  

I think of it as occasional days and nights that are cooler than anything we've seen in the last couple months, then yeah we are seeing some shots across the bow.

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

What would you call "shots across the bow"?  Just curious.  This morning was probably one, and then Friday another one if some NNE radiators see Frost Advisories.  

But it's all subjective...if you are looking for highs in the 50s, then yeah not a shot across the bow.  Or if it has to be sustained below normal then yeah, no shots across the bow.  

I think of it as occasional days and nights that are cooler than anything we've seen in the last couple months, then yeah we are seeing some shots across the bow.

Well to me nights that radiate are fake cold. I mean last night Fryeberg and Berlin, NH got into the 30's. Most places in SNE were in 50's and a few radiators got into the 40's. To me radiators don't count. They are able to decouple even in a HHH environment . A shot across bow  would be Regionwide BN for highs and lows under sunny skies. And if you've noticed.. The end of the week cool down which did look BNif you bought op models has now trended N to slightly AN before going right back solidly AN

[powderfreak]

20 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Well to me nights that radiate are fake cold. I mean last night Fryeberg and Berlin, NH got into the 30's. Most places in SNE were in 50's and a few radiators got into the 40's. To me radiators don't count. They are able to decouple even in a HHH environment . A shot across bow  would be Regionwide BN for highs and lows under sunny skies. And if you've noticed.. The end of the week cool down which did look BNif you bought op models has now trended N to slightly AN before going right back solidly AN

Hold on, most spots in SNE in the 50s with a few 40s?  Aside from coastal spots, ORH was the warmest with 51F.

ORH...51F

LWM...50F

BDL...49F

IJD...48F

FIT...48F

BED...44F

TAN...44F

OWD...40F

I also just looked at the PWS around you and there were plenty of mid/upper 40s (Coventry 45F, Ashford 47F, Tolland/Pinebrook 46F).

But ok that's why you are so focused on AN vs BN.  I look at it as today will have the lowest daily average at BDL since the real cold shot in the first part of June when it was snowing on Mansfield.  Most spots in New England had their coolest day in 10-12 weeks (average temp of the high/low).  That's what I think of for "shots across the bow."  

[CoastalWx]

Yeah a lot of places where in the 40s except some hills, coast, urban areas etc. 

[powderfreak]

Basically it sounds like until you are experiencing it on the hilltop in Tolland no one else is.  But I get that cause that's what you experience.  The radiators can't get to 30s in a HHH pattern though like you allude to.  It's all relative.  It happens first in the NNE radiators and then progresses from there...so it's a step in the right direction.  

Not everyone is going to instantly go from 70-80F to highs in the 40s and 50s.  It's a step down process.  

[dendrite]

19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Well to me nights that radiate are fake cold. I mean last night Fryeberg and Berlin, NH got into the 30's. Most places in SNE were in 50's and a few radiators got into the 40's. To me radiators don't count. They are able to decouple even in a HHH environment . A shot across bow  would be Regionwide BN for highs and lows under sunny skies. And if you've noticed.. The end of the week cool down which did look BNif you bought op models has now trended N to slightly AN before going right back solidly AN

This is what you get in September. Strong CAA nights are rare this time of year. You're not going to be getting 45F with 15-20mph winds yet.

[Damage In Tolland]

23 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Hold on, most spots in SNE in the 50s with a few 40s?  Aside from coastal spots, ORH was the warmest with 51F.

ORH...51F

LWM...50F

BDL...49F

IJD...48F

FIT...48F

BED...44F

TAN...44F

OWD...40F

I also just looked at the PWS around you and there were plenty of mid/upper 40s (Coventry 45F, Ashford 47F, Tolland/Pinebrook 46F).

But ok that's why you are so focused on AN vs BN.  I look at it as today will have the lowest daily average at BDL since the real cold shot in the first part of June when it was snowing on Mansfield.  Most spots in New England had their coolest day in 10-12 weeks (average temp of the high/low).  That's what I think of for "shots across the bow."  

Except for ORH.. Everyone of those spots are radiators . Correct? I got to 53.6 which I thought was impressive 

[TalcottWx]

I'm not gonna act like I have a clue on September just hope it snows this winter 

[CoastalWx]

Looks like end of the month could turn a bit more active. Ensembles have a pretty deep trough forming over the Midwest. Of course the caveats being that it's far out, but seems like the tables are turning a bit on getting a little more action starting next week. Still looks warm overall. 

[weathafella]

5 hours ago, sbos_wx said:

I'm not gonna act like I have a clue on September just hope it snows this winter 

Oh it will...bigly in fact.   But it should be on the warm side for at least the rest of September and possibly October as well.

[CoastalWx]

11 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Oh it will...bigly in fact.   But it should be on the warm side for at least the rest of September and possibly October as well.

It does look warm heading into October. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

It does look warm heading into October. 

Although perhaps mild is a better term in October. 

[Bostonseminole]

Warm September and October around here means beautiful weather, I'll take it!!


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[J Paul Gordon]

It was hard not to enjoy the radiantly beautiful afternoon I stepped out into yesterday. Granted, I was coming out of the gym which is anything but radiant and beautiful. But AN as September and October wear on isn't exactly horrible. If I had my way it would be considerably cooler--but then again I'd have the climate of Caribou, Maine (or maybe even West Greenland) for the whole year minus June, July, and August (would take Flagstaff Arizona or some other high location in the interior West for those months). 

The question is how long will the AN regime last? It becomes more aggravating as we move into November and especially December. Last December was a nightmare for us winter folk (an unusually large contingent here, considering the attitudes of the general population). Even then, there were days that were pretty nice from a comfort perspective.

It will be interesting to see what (if any) changes are in place come the mid September CPC forecasts. Does anyone have information from some of the pros about the long range?

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said:

It was hard not to enjoy the radiantly beautiful afternoon I stepped out into yesterday. Granted, I was coming out of the gym which is anything but radiant and beautiful. But AN as September and October wear on isn't exactly horrible. If I had my way it would be considerably cooler--but then again I'd have the climate of Caribou, Maine (or maybe even West Greenland) for the whole year minus June, July, and August (would take Flagstaff Arizona or some other high location in the interior West for those months). 

The question is how long will the AN regime last? It becomes more aggravating as we move into November and especially December. Last December was a nightmare for us winter folk (an unusually large contingent here, considering the attitudes of the general population). Even then, there were days that were pretty nice from a comfort perspective.

It will be interesting to see what (if any) changes are in place come the mid September CPC forecasts. Does anyone have information from some of the pros about the long range?

  Most agree on a warm October. I have seen/heard conflicting opinions about November and December. Some have thought the risk for cooler November and December, some think warm right through December. If you believe analogs, they are cooler for November and December. 

[powderfreak]

10 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Except for ORH.. Everyone of those spots are radiators . Correct? I got to 53.6 which I thought was impressive 

Thats every ASOS that isn't at 1,000ft on a hill top then is a radiator? 

That's like 90% of the SNE sites (and population) are radiators?  I'm confused on the definition you are using, but sounds like it's anyone that gets colder than a hilltop at night?

I thought we were talking about places that stand out as radiators like SLK/HIE style. Honestly BDL/FIT/IJD don't strike me as insane radiators.  That's just like run of the mill ASOS locations.  Sort of like I never considered ALB a radiator but it would be if BDL is one.