I'll see you in September

[CapturedNature]

14 minutes ago, tamarack said:

If I'm allowed the whole month rather than a particular date, I can get a span of 82° at the co-op in New Sharon, about 3 miles SSE from my location, even though their temp records began only 1/1/2000.  Thanks to their 7 AM obs time, their max recorded for 3/7/2007 was 1° and they hit the same 83 in 2012 as in Farmington.  (my afternoon high on 3/6/2007 was -2, but it had been 19 at 9:01 the previous evening before plummeting to -13 by dawn.)

If we can go all time, my all time span would be 88° from a high of 81° on 3/28/1998 to a low of -2° on 3/19/1993 but we're getting outside the parameters of the original argument.  When I have more time I'll look to see what my greatest daily range is.  I think we talked about this in February when we went from record cold to warmth in less than 24 hours.

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, tamarack said:

Bit more volatile as one moves north - Farmington's top span is 70°, done twice:

1/14/1932:  62;  1/14/2004:  -8    January's warmest and 2nd coldest maxima.

3/22/2012:  83;  3/22/1988:  13    This day managed to pair the all time heat record for March with the coldest maximum recorded so late in the season.  (We were marking timber NW of Ashland on that day in 1988, and the single-digit temps and 40 mph gusts there made it hard to keep one's hands warm when holding a metal-bodied marking gun.  Was always good to shoot from upwind of the tree, too.)

Best I can find for my 18 years here is 57°, not coincidentally on the exact same days, thanks to 2004 and 2012:

1/14/2005:  50;  1/14/2004:  -7  (Afternoon high was -11, spoiled by cheap 9:01 PM obs.)

3/22/2012:  80;  3/22/2004:  23

I know CON has a 76F for one particular day...12/29/33 was -11F and 12/29/84 was 65F. I'm not sure if they have one higher than that, but I know it'd be tough to beat. That -11F is about their theoretical limit and required perfect timing. The next lowest high is -4F so that -11F has to be quite a few SDs.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Without having looked at data to back it up I feel like the Sept 7th-12th time frame has been AN in NE on more than a few occasions.

[powderfreak]

18 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Without having looked at data to back it up I feel like the Sept 7th-12th time frame has been AN in NE on more than a few occasions.

Last year is one of those occasions.  It was an absolute inferno around this time...en fuego is a better word for it.  That was high-end heat that would give anything in JJA a run for its money.

For BTV...looking up last year's September 1-9th gives some staggering data.

Average maximum temperatures from September 1-9 at BTV...

2015...87.8F

2016...81.5F

Last year had 7 of the first 9 September days with max temps of 85F or higher (3 of them 90+) and on average are running 6.3 degrees higher than this year at the BTV ASOS. 

This has been hot but last year was really worthy of the high-end adjectives.

 

[eyewall]

13 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Last year is one of those occasions.  It was an absolute inferno around this time...en fuego is a better word for it.  That was high-end heat that would give anything in JJA a run for its money.

For BTV...looking up last year's September 1-9th gives some staggering data.

Average maximum temperatures from September 1-9 at BTV...

2015...87.8F

2016...81.5F

Last year had 7 of the first 9 September days with max temps of 85F or higher (3 of them 90+) and on average are running 6.3 degrees higher than this year at the BTV ASOS. 

This has been hot but last year was really worthy of the high-end adjectives.

 

Last year was horrendous on so many levels :).

[tamarack]

Yesterday's 84/63 fell only 0.5° shy of tying my warmest daily mean of the year, and the 63° low did tie the year's rather modest high minimum.  Another big AN during the Sept. 7-10 period, a span that includes my only Sept days reaching 90 (92 and 93, in 2002) and only Sept days with minima above 65 (68 and 69, in 1999.)

[CoastalWx]

Euro ensembles are basically what cold front later in the week.    Death ridge 2016 continues. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Many of us thought that would happen. Will there still be days and days of 70's/50's?

[CoastalWx]

Well there is a lot of time still left so they could be too warm. But it's sort of the underlying theme.  At least the air dries out and cools off a bit. 

[powderfreak]

43 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Many of us thought that would happen. Will there still be days and days of 70's/50's?

Yup almost certainly there will.  Today would count too...50s this morning and 70s this afternoon.  Now down to 72F at the ASOS.

Should be a beautiful stretch.  And if you hit 83F today in an "absolute mid-summer roaster" it's not going to take much to keep your highs in the 70s, unless it looks similar to this stretch.

[Damage In Tolland]

56 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yup almost certainly there will.  Today would count too...50s this morning and 70s this afternoon.  Now down to 72F at the ASOS.

Should be a beautiful stretch.  And if you hit 83F today in an "absolute mid-summer roaster" it's not going to take much to keep your highs in the 70s, unless it looks similar to this stretch.

Sometimes it seems like maybe you aren't following . The normals in SNE now are in the low-mid 70's and probably upper 60's up there. So a day in the low- mid 80's here and 77 up there is WAN. Add on dews today in the low 70's. It was as hot a feeling day as you can ever get in mid Sept. The Euro ens according to Scooter basically nixed the deep trough and now offer 1 day in SNE of upper 70's before going right back to 80+ with humidity. That probably translates to more WAN even up there where it sounds like maybe it's always chilly 

[CoastalWx]

  I'm not trying to turn this into a weenie argument, but the general theme has been to mute these. It doesn't mean it can't get comfortable...just that those potent shots on the op runs showing up 1 week out, end up muted and shortened in length.  There is plenty of colder air in Canada...just can't quite make it south into the northeast US. The glancing shots are why there has been a temp gradient between SNE and areas like NNE...esp nrn VT,NH, and ME. 

[scoob40]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro ensembles are basically what cold front later in the week.    Death ridge 2016 continues. 

The Ginxter and MPM will certainly post dissenting opinion's.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

[CoastalWx]

Euro ensembles cooled off nicely later this week. Hopefully it holds.

[J.Spin]

14 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Will there still be days and days of 70's/50's?

14 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Yup almost certainly there will.

13 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Sometimes it seems like maybe you aren't following.

12 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

The glancing shots are why there has been a temp gradient between SNE and areas like NNE...esp nrn VT,NH, and ME. 

There’s probably been some of the usual SNE/NNE disconnect, but I look at the forecast here and indeed it’s 70s/50s and 60s/40s.  I don’t know if it’s above average or whatever, but as you get into September nobody cares – they’re not going to feel hot and it’s about perfect for most outdoor stuff that doesn’t involve the water.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

There’s probably been some of the usual SNE/NNE disconnect, but I look at the forecast here and indeed it’s 70s/50s and 60s/40s.  I don’t know if it’s above average or whatever, but as you get into September nobody cares – they’re not going to feel hot and it’s about perfect for most outdoor stuff that doesn’t involve the water.

 Couple of good shots coming your way. 

[Typhoon Tip]

heh... i remember the four or five years after the legendary 1995-1996 season there materialized a semi-permanent SE ridge; it appeared to mainly affect the winter seasons.  no, it wasn't there at all times, but it was certainly factor-able every year in there.  it always fascinating me, and no explanation was ever provided (discretely) as to why it would rear it's ugly interference head at least excuse imaginable during that era spanning nearly a half decade.  but it was real, observable, empirical, and NCEP noted it several times in write-ups in that era..  it really more than merely seemed the rest state had a modest positive geopotential anomaly in general in the skies over the Caribbean/SW Atlantic Basin and immediately adjacent SE.  

that was when i developed my hypothesis/index finger method for wave-space interference using the "MIA rule"    ...basically, despite the 'look' of any given amplitude in the westerlies ... as described by a diving trough, if the geopotential heights are over 580 DM, and the balanced mid level geostrophic velocicities are above 30 ...maybe 35 kts over the ~lat/lon of Miami Florida, that appeared to be a threshold.  the more of either and destructive wave-space/interference pattern ability to damp out cyclogenic field dynamics becomes ever more observable.  

in March 2001 there was a storm of all out biblical proportions scheduled for the MA to NE regions, but wah wah waahhhh: conceptually-related interference was there, and as a result, the shear didn't allow cyclogenesis to bomb soon enough to feed-back constructing the entire evolution farther west in longitude - as it were, the storm maxed and pounded regions ...um, farther N-E then scheduled....

i wonder if that is the greatest negative bust in Phili history?  

noting the SE 'death ridge' in early September is amusing enough ... for winter storm enthusiasts, it may be better if that design terminates prior to the cold season; more importantly, doesn't leave some kind of pig vestige of interference pattern lingering when it counts  

That aside ... i take the general appeal of today's gusty cool front, and the overall pattern of cyclic trough translations through the middle and extended ranges, as a more visceral demonstration of summer season's collapse.  whether it shows up in the thermometer houses more or less obvious, it's the difference between standing on the beach and watching waves roll in, and actually being in the surf.  Code for the westerlies showing real signs of beginning to migrate S.   

[powderfreak]

On September 10, 2016 at 6:29 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Sometimes it seems like maybe you aren't following . The normals in SNE now are in the low-mid 70's and probably upper 60's up there. So a day in the low- mid 80's here and 77 up there is WAN. Add on dews today in the low 70's. It was as hot a feeling day as you can ever get in mid Sept. The Euro ens according to Scooter basically nixed the deep trough and now offer 1 day in SNE of upper 70's before going right back to 80+ with humidity. That probably translates to more WAN even up there where it sounds like maybe it's always chilly 

Sometimes I feel like you aren't following along because you are so obsessed with above and below normal dialog.

Where did I say anything anything about below normal or cold?  No where.  In your mind you think saying 70s/50s is "implying" chilly.  It's not.  It's implying highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s.  Yes I do think we see a lot of that going forward.

Link please and thanks to posts referring to 70s/50s as below normal or chilly.

And in 10 days (September 21st), we will see how many days you had highs in the 70s at your house in Tolland.  I'll just ask for your highs each day and we can see out of the next 10 if the bulk of them were in the 70s.

[powderfreak]

10 hours ago, J.Spin said:

There’s probably been some of the usual SNE/NNE disconnect, but I look at the forecast here and indeed it’s 70s/50s and 60s/40s.  I don’t know if it’s above average or whatever, but as you get into September nobody cares – they’re not going to feel hot and it’s about perfect for most outdoor stuff that doesn’t involve the water.

Exactly...no one is saying that it's below normal.  It's a good deal above normal.  A bunch of +5 to +7 days get us 70s/50s.

It doesn't feel like a mid-summer torch, it's just beautiful weather. Yes, it can be above normal AND beautiful chamber of commerce style at the same time.

Its like in late April or May when above normal means beautiful weather.

[Bostonseminole]

Nice stretch of weather coming up, love these type of early fall days in NE


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[J Paul Gordon]

We interrupt this program with a special announcement from the Paranoid Broadcasting System: Climatological experts in SNE have released the following special bulletin:

 No part of the planet will experience  maximum temperatures below 70F or minimum temperatures below 50F for at least 10 m years. We have been transported back to the  Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM). Yes, folks, we have just been shot back in climatological time to a period when crocodiles and palm trees could be found at the Arctic Circle and the average surface temperature of the planet was 73F.* So, not just "weeks and weeks" of WAN.... its gonna be "Eons and eons of WAN temps".

We are now returning this program to rational discussion.

So, what (if any) signs are there of the SE ridge breaking down over the next few weeks? Does it look like it will be a semi-permanent fixture for the long term, or, does it break down any time soon? 

 

*https://www.climate.gov/news-features/climate-qa/whats-hottest-earths-ever-been

[CoastalWx]

Yeah,.

[powderfreak]

5 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

Nice stretch of weather coming up, love these type of early fall days in NE


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Man looking at the forecasts everywhere it's 70s/50s for the vast majority of New England almost all week long.  Some 60s/40s up in the North Country and a couple torch spots might tickle lower 80s a couple days in SNE but this is going to be a beautiful 7-10 day stretch of weather.

Boring as all hell but sunny and 75/50 is a very enjoyable boring.

[Damage In Tolland]

Unless you ignore 80-85 tomorrow and 85-90 with dews on Wed

[CoastalWx]

40 at OWD last night. 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Unless you ignore 80-85 tomorrow and 85-90 with dews on Wed

I'll take the under a bit in a lot of areas. Of course unless on a runway in CT.

[powderfreak]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Unless you ignore 80-85 tomorrow and 85-90 with dews on Wed

Let me know what your high temps are.  I'm not sure what's going on lately, you are trying so hard to make it seem like it's uncomfortable summer weather.

This is YOUR forecast from BOX for the northern counties in CT.  Upper 70s then near 80F.  Yes brief humidity.  Then full seasonable with a touch of Autumn is how BOX said it.  

My guess is the vast majority of us (you included) do not see 85-90F this week.

	Tonight Clear. Lows in the lower 50s. Southwest winds around 5 mph.
	Tuesday Sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. Southwest winds around 5 mph.
	Tuesday Night Partly cloudy. Not as cool with lows in the lower 60s. Southwest winds around 5 mph.
	Wednesday Partly sunny. Highs around 80. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusts up to 20 mph in the afternoon.

[Bostonseminole]

Unless you ignore 80-85 tomorrow and 85-90 with dews on Wed

Meh when it drops low 50'at night


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[Damage In Tolland]

Ahh the old wx app. Don't look at models or the +16c or anything