I'll see you in September

[powderfreak]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Yeah...I like looking at it on a normal curve. Anything >2SD is a definite torch...i.e. top 2.5%.

I like this.  I'm not trying to poo poo the heat but it's nice to quantify it so we can learn what adjectives to use when haha.

[J.Spin]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

I like this.  I'm not trying to poo poo the heat but it's nice to quantify it so we can learn what adjectives to use when haha.

Thumbs up for quantification!

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

With the addition of last season’s data to create a 10-year data set, it’s now 39.1” (26.4%).  Not surprisingly, that’s a substantial increase from what it was before the addition of the latest data (30.3”; 19.4%) due to last season’s anomalous -2.78 S.D. snow total.  For the sanity of those up in this neck of the woods, let’s hope that doesn’t happen again.

Ahh. I was going to ask the data before last year too. Cool, thanks. I know it's a smaller sample size...but just curious. 

[ORH_wxman]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Ahh. I was going to ask the data before last year too. Cool, thanks. I know it's a smaller sample size...but just curious. 

 

His old standard dev of 30.3" wasnt that much higher than ORH's 26.6"...all it takes is one ridiculous season in a fairly small sample to change that. Lol

[OceanStWx]

32 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Just think of the extremes for each point in the season. At CON, in the peak of summer the range of highs is about 60F to 100F...so a range of 40F. At the peak of winter the spread is about 0F to 65F or a range of 65F. At the autumnal climo midpoint (10/20ish) the spread is about 40F to 85F...so a range of only 45F.

You basically stretch the goalposts out a lot further in winter.

What I didn't mention was that the SD at BOS on 7/1 is actually higher than 9/1. I imagine the opposite is true inland, but goes to show you how volatile the ocean can make coastal locations.

[moneypitmike]

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

Just think of the extremes for each point in the season. At CON, in the peak of summer the range of highs is about 60F to 100F...so a range of 40F. At the peak of winter the spread is about 0F to 65F or a range of 65F. At the autumnal climo midpoint (10/20ish) the spread is about 40F to 85F...so a range of only 45F.

You basically stretch the goalposts out a lot further in winter.

I think what was throwing me was the trend in average daily temps during the course of the transitional seasons

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

I like this.  I'm not trying to poo poo the heat but it's nice to quantify it so we can learn what adjectives to use when haha.

 

Yes.  We just need to equate the language (roast/freezer) with the right measurement.  I got up to 75* once the sun came out.  What a toaster of a day.

 

 

[Ginx snewx]

8 hours ago, radarman said:

This

I think Felix was my 1st experience with that kind of surf... you learn to duck pretty quickly and go through the wash cycle.  Bill is standard bearer however.  As memorable as my best powder days, and slightly more terrifying.

My good friend of 40 years ripping it up in Misquamicut he is 65 

[mreaves]

12 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

I think what was throwing me was the trend in average daily temps during the course of the transitional seasons

 

Yes.  We just need to equate the language (roast/freezer) with the right measurement.  I got up to 75* once the sun came out.  What a toaster of a day.

 

 

To me, anything above 65° is a roaster during the "warm" season.  Between October 31st and April 1st, anything above 30° is a roaster.  No room for variation, as some would say, "Seasons in Seasons" 

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

What I didn't mention was that the SD at BOS on 7/1 is actually higher than 9/1. I imagine the opposite is true inland, but goes to show you how volatile the ocean can make coastal locations.

Do you, or anyone else, have a link to all of the daily norms and SDs? I had a link but can't find it. I'm going to make a little spreadsheet up for a few climo sites with the daily norms, +1SD, +1.5SD, and +2SD. 

[powderfreak]

32 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

My good friend of 40 years ripping it up in Misquamicut he is 65 

Awesome dude.  Love that stuff.

[moneypitmike]

35 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Do you, or anyone else, have a link to all of the daily norms and SDs? I had a link but can't find it. I'm going to make a little spreadsheet up for a few climo sites with the daily norms, +1SD, +1.5SD, and +2SD. 

That would be great--no one can use "torch" or "deep freeze" terminology for anything less than +/- 2SD.

[Ginx snewx]

more rain

[Damage In Tolland]

37 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

more rain

Congrats on everything 

[Ginx snewx]

13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Congrats on everything 

it's like a sauna in here

 

[J Paul Gordon]

4 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

My good friend of 40 years ripping it up in Misquamicut he is 65 

Awesome waves from this storm all over the New England coast

[J Paul Gordon]

4 hours ago, mreaves said:

To me, anything above 65° is a roaster during the "warm" season.  Between October 31st and April 1st, anything above 30° is a roaster.  No room for variation, as some would say, "Seasons in Seasons" 

Sounds like we like the same kind of climate... though I've gotta admit this hot dry summer was great on the coast of Maine between beach, pool, and biking. Just done with it now. Time to go. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Should smash some record today. Prob some 94/95's at BDL and BOS and like 87-88 ORH/MPM

[J Paul Gordon]

Strange, the departure for September (so far) is only +0.6F. That will go up over the next few days; with the high humidity I was expecting something much greater. Goes to show you what "sensible" can do to perception.

[powderfreak]

Yesterday at BOS was +3....last year on that date was +16.  Holy crap now that's a torch...96/72.

[OceanStWx]

On 9/7/2016 at 4:27 PM, dendrite said:

Do you, or anyone else, have a link to all of the daily norms and SDs? I had a link but can't find it. I'm going to make a little spreadsheet up for a few climo sites with the daily norms, +1SD, +1.5SD, and +2SD. 

I'm not seeing any of our documents with SD data, sorry. I just ran my numbers from xmACIS and Excel. 

[dendrite]

Sep has been way AN up here. 

[powderfreak]

Talk about variability...love this time of year.

Just looking at the BTV data, the record high today is 98F (2002)...while the record low maximum temp is 54F (1914). 

So for September 9th, the possible range in high temps is from mid-50s to near 100F, lol.

[dendrite]

9 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Talk about variability...love this time of year.

Just looking at the BTV data, the record high today is 98F (2002)...while the record low maximum temp is 54F (1914). 

So for September 9th, the possible range in high temps is from mid-50s to near 100F, lol.

I don't think a 45F range is a lot TBH. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

I don't think a 45F range is a lot TBH. 

 

We get 60F ranges in the winter.

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

I don't think a 45F range is a lot TBH. 

Yeah you would know better than me, just the range in sensible weather there is crazy.  

A 54/37 type day or 98/70, lol.

I'm sure some of those April days where maxes have hit 90F have larger ranges.  

[dendrite]

41 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah you would know better than me, just the range in sensible weather there is crazy.  

A 54/37 type day or 98/70, lol.

I'm sure some of those April days where maxes have hit 90F have larger ranges.  

Yeah...but Jun/Jul isn't a lot different from early September here. CON can do U50s or L100s in July and September is just a hair lower...maybe M50s to M90s this time of year? Mar/Apr are always fun. We've done 80s in mid Mar recently and 20s just this past Apr.

BTV has an 80F range in highs for Jan (-14F to 66F).

[powderfreak]

15 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah...but Jun/Jul isn't a lot different from early September here. CON can do U50s or L100s in July and September is just a hair lower...maybe M50s to M90s this time of year? Mar/Apr are always fun. We've done 80s in mid Mar recently and 20s just this past Apr.

BTV has an 80F range in highs for Jan (-14F to 66F).

Yeah good point, those winter months are littered with high record highs and subzero max mins.  

I thought 12/24 might be a good one thanks to last winter's 68F max, but that is the only day in the end of Dec without a subzero max.

 

[tamarack]

5 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

We get 60F ranges in the winter.

Bit more volatile as one moves north - Farmington's top span is 70°, done twice:

1/14/1932:  62;  1/14/2004:  -8    January's warmest and 2nd coldest maxima.

3/22/2012:  83;  3/22/1988:  13    This day managed to pair the all time heat record for March with the coldest maximum recorded so late in the season.  (We were marking timber NW of Ashland on that day in 1988, and the single-digit temps and 40 mph gusts there made it hard to keep one's hands warm when holding a metal-bodied marking gun.  Was always good to shoot from upwind of the tree, too.)

Best I can find for my 18 years here is 57°, not coincidentally on the exact same days, thanks to 2004 and 2012:

1/14/2005:  50;  1/14/2004:  -7  (Afternoon high was -11, spoiled by cheap 9:01 PM obs.)

3/22/2012:  80;  3/22/2004:  23

[ORH_wxman]

18 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Bit more volatile as one moves north - Farmington's top span is 70°, done twice:

1/14/1932:  62;  1/14/2004:  -8    January's warmest and 2nd coldest maxima.

3/22/2012:  83;  3/22/1988:  13    This day managed to pair the all time heat record for March with the coldest maximum recorded so late in the season.  (We were marking timber NW of Ashland on that day in 1988, and the single-digit temps and 40 mph gusts there made it hard to keep one's hands warm when holding a metal-bodied marking gun.  Was always good to shoot from upwind of the tree, too.)

Best I can find for my 18 years here is 57°, not coincidentally on the exact same days, thanks to 2004 and 2012:

1/14/2005:  50;  1/14/2004:  -7  (Afternoon high was -11, spoiled by cheap 9:01 PM obs.)

3/22/2012:  80;  3/22/2004:  23

 

Yeah the further north, the greater the range seems to be. Fairbanks pulls 100F differences in winter...max temps can be -50F or +50F.

[tamarack]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

Yeah the further north, the greater the range seems to be. Fairbanks pulls 100F differences in winter...max temps can be -50F or +50F.

If I'm allowed the whole month rather than a particular date, I can get a span of 82° at the co-op in New Sharon, about 3 miles SSE from my location, even though their temp records began only 1/1/2000.  Thanks to their 7 AM obs time, their max recorded for 3/7/2007 was 1° and they hit the same 83 in 2012 as in Farmington.  (my afternoon high on 3/6/2007 was -2, but it had been 19 at 9:01 the previous evening before plummeting to -13 by dawn.)