dendrite Posted September 7, 2016 Share Posted September 7, 2016 Despite the low high of ORH, the low was high, so it was really a -3 day Would 83 be a "scorcher"? I guess... it would be a +10 for the high, so I would call it a torchy day. Nothing really unusual for September for sure But it certainly isn't the 90F that some posters were touting for my location You'll have ~20C 850s over your head mid morning Friday. Let's let it play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 7, 2016 Share Posted September 7, 2016 It kills MPM to be AN. Just kills him. He's turning into MRG...it's never warm there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 7, 2016 Share Posted September 7, 2016 Using ORH as the closest climate station to your location. When it comes to measuring whether or not a day is hot or cold it all comes down to the "normal" values for that day. Take yesterday for instance. ORH had a high of 67, normal is 73. A -6F of the day. That's well below the "normal" value. If you take the converse and were to add 6F and the day was 80F, that's well above normal. If you were to get a day in the mid 80s, that would be a scorcher, relative to your locations normal temp. Does that help? http://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?wfo ORH is only 50 miles away. Again, "average" and "normal" are not synonymous. All average temps will be within the realm of 'normal', but normal temps do not need to be average. As PF said, let's look at standard deviations. We can argue is it 1 or 2 SD that make for a torch/freezer, e.g. While I don't have the numbers, my instinct would way that the SD of the transitional months is significantly larger than the doldrums of summer/depths of winter. It's been a while since I've taken a stats class, but less than 1SD is generally noise, 3 is quite dramatic. Between 1-3 we can discuss magnitude. Meanwhile, a really manky day, cloudy and 67*. Below average, but still very much "normal". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 7, 2016 Share Posted September 7, 2016 It kills MPM to be AN. Just kills him. He's turning into MRG...it's never warm there. Not at all--my shawls notwithstanding, it certainly gets warm. It's just less warm than where most people live--though folks who contend with sea breezes will rightfully contest that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 7, 2016 Share Posted September 7, 2016 You'll have ~20C 850s over your head mid morning Friday. Let's let it play out. We will see what that translates to on the surface. I will go with 85F at ORH (torch), 84F at my house . I was expecting BOX to start ratcheting up the p n c to match up with those numbers that you quoted, but so far they are staying put. My classroom will be a sauna nonetheless. KFIT should be good for an 88F-90F if it clears out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 7, 2016 Share Posted September 7, 2016 I should also note that I have had more 90F+ days this summer than in a long time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 7, 2016 Share Posted September 7, 2016 Why do so many go by what BoX has for numbers. I'd argue many times they are way off on numbers as they are ultra conservative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 7, 2016 Share Posted September 7, 2016 Why do so many go by what BoX has for numbers. I'd argue many times they are way off on numbers as they are ultra conservative In my experience, for warm spells they tend to be too high for what happens in my area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 7, 2016 Share Posted September 7, 2016 In my experience, for warm spells they tend to be too high for what happens in my area 100% agree. I always enjoy the temp-drop on the car thermometer when I ascend from Greenfield or Shelburne Falls. It drops even further if I had to the top of Patten Hill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 7, 2016 Share Posted September 7, 2016 It kills MPM to be AN. Just kills him. He's turning into MRG...it's never warm there. I don't think it's that. I get him. It's the hyperbolic roasting stuff. And you know MPM and Hubb really don't get that hot anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 7, 2016 Share Posted September 7, 2016 I don't think it's that. I get him. It's the hyperbolic roasting stuff. And you know MPM and Hubb really don't get that hot anyway. I think it's easy to shrug of a +10 departure in fall or spring but if it occurs in winter it's an "absolute furnace" to many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 7, 2016 Share Posted September 7, 2016 ORH is only 50 miles away. Again, "average" and "normal" are not synonymous. All average temps will be within the realm of 'normal', but normal temps do not need to be average. As PF said, let's look at standard deviations. We can argue is it 1 or 2 SD that make for a torch/freezer, e.g. While I don't have the numbers, my instinct would way that the SD of the transitional months is significantly larger than the doldrums of summer/depths of winter. It's been a while since I've taken a stats class, but less than 1SD is generally noise, 3 is quite dramatic. Between 1-3 we can discuss magnitude. Meanwhile, a really manky day, cloudy and 67*. Below average, but still very much "normal". Meteorologically, "normal" is the running decadal 30-year average (with a little curve fitting). So when we refer to "normal" we mean the 30yr average. On a -5F day we don't say "5F below average"...we say "5F below normal". I think you know this so you may be arguing some other semantical argument. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 7, 2016 Share Posted September 7, 2016 I think it's easy to shrug of a +10 departure in fall or spring but if it occurs in winter it's an "absolute furnace" to many. +10 is most impressive in summer and least impressive in winter. SDs are highest in winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 7, 2016 Share Posted September 7, 2016 55 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I don't think it's that. I get him. It's the hyperbolic roasting stuff. And you know MPM and Hubb really don't get that hot anyway. There's hyperbole on both sides. 65F isn't hot, but it's a torch for MWN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 7, 2016 Share Posted September 7, 2016 8 minutes ago, dendrite said: +10 is most impressive in summer and least impressive in winter. SDs are highest in winter. Case in point, the SD on 1/1 at BOS is higher (10.5) than 3/1 (8.5). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 7, 2016 Share Posted September 7, 2016 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: There's hyperbole on both sides. 65F isn't hot, but it's a torch for MWN. There's almost like two different discussions..."roasting" to me with days and days of AC needed is less of a departure thing and more a sensible weather thing. It's definitely a warm pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 7, 2016 Share Posted September 7, 2016 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Case in point, the SD on 1/1 at BOS is higher (10.5) than 3/1 (8.5). Nice, I was looking for that info. What's the SD for 9/1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 7, 2016 Share Posted September 7, 2016 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: There's hyperbole on both sides. 65F isn't hot, but it's a torch for MWN. i'd replace 'hyperbole' with 'futility' ... if not 'moot-ness' in the latter sense, then i'd agree fully. not that anyone asked, but coming in here and down playing heat when you live on a mountain top is ... incongruent; to the extent that it mystifies why people argue about someone else's apples while shouting about their own orangy examples.. contrasting, anyone gullible enough to get sucked into a subjective debate/argument that then features smoldering if perhaps non-disclosed hostility in between every word, ...is just about evenly pointless, and they get the annoyance they deserve. but that just me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 7, 2016 Share Posted September 7, 2016 5 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Nice, I was looking for that info. What's the SD for 9/1? Pretty similar to the post about today's info from earlier in the thread, 7.3 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted September 7, 2016 Share Posted September 7, 2016 5 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: His normal is about 72. 10 -12 degrees AN..if that's not furnaced I'm not sure what is Darn right you’re not sure, nor is anybody else, that’s why these conversations continuously go round and round. It’s good fodder for discussion though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 7, 2016 Share Posted September 7, 2016 49 minutes ago, dendrite said: +10 is most impressive in summer and least impressive in winter. SDs are highest in winter. Oh' yeah, I see what you are saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 7, 2016 Share Posted September 7, 2016 Jspin, what is 1 SD for your snowfall distribution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 7, 2016 Share Posted September 7, 2016 1 hour ago, dendrite said: +10 is most impressive in summer and least impressive in winter. SDs are highest in winter. I'm surprised that the SD's are not highest during the transitional seasons since they would seem to be the most volatile temp-wise. I suspect it'll make some intuitive sense to me at some point. I need to draw myself a curve to visualize the temp dispersion. No time to do that now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 7, 2016 Share Posted September 7, 2016 51 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Pretty similar to the post about today's info from earlier in the thread, 7.3 degrees. Good to know...I love using the SDs, so +10 would be "well above" then as I like to use the SD to quantify the subjective terminology. Like with snowfall, anything inside of 1 SD is sort of "normal" in my mind...same with temps. But you'd need a large period of record to get that correctly...if not a lot of data that 1 SD could be huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 7, 2016 Share Posted September 7, 2016 Just now, powderfreak said: Good to know...I love using the SDs, so +10 would be "well above" then as I like to use the SD to quantify the subjective terminology. Like with snowfall, anything inside of 1 SD is sort of "normal" in my mind...same with temps. Yeah I mean +/- 1 could be termed above or below normal, but nearly 3 out of 4 times your data will fall within those goalposts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 7, 2016 Share Posted September 7, 2016 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: Yeah I mean +/- 1 could be termed above or below normal, but nearly 3 out of 4 times your data will fall within those goalposts. It's a good measure to see if something is worth hyping or even discussing as anything close to abnormal. If +8 for a daily mean is above 1 SD, then yeah I can get on board with it being anomalous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 7, 2016 Share Posted September 7, 2016 13 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: I'm surprised that the SD's are not highest during the transitional seasons since they would seem to be the most volatile temp-wise. I suspect it'll make some intuitive sense to me at some point. I need to draw myself a curve to visualize the temp dispersion. No time to do that now. Just think of the extremes for each point in the season. At CON, in the peak of summer the range of highs is about 60F to 100F...so a range of 40F. At the peak of winter the spread is about 0F to 65F or a range of 65F. At the autumnal climo midpoint (10/20ish) the spread is about 40F to 85F...so a range of only 45F. You basically stretch the goalposts out a lot further in winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 7, 2016 Share Posted September 7, 2016 I might make a stat called the KSD. Kevin Standard Distribution. +/- 0.5 KSD is highly anomalous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 7, 2016 Share Posted September 7, 2016 12 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Good to know...I love using the SDs, so +10 would be "well above" then as I like to use the SD to quantify the subjective terminology. Like with snowfall, anything inside of 1 SD is sort of "normal" in my mind...same with temps. But you'd need a large period of record to get that correctly...if not a lot of data that 1 SD could be huge. Yeah...I like looking at it on a normal curve. Anything >2SD is a definite torch...i.e. top 2.5%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted September 7, 2016 Share Posted September 7, 2016 23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Jspin, what is 1 SD for your snowfall distribution? With the addition of last season’s data to create a 10-year data set, it’s now 39.1” (26.4%). Not surprisingly, that’s a substantial increase from what it was before the addition of the latest data (30.3”; 19.4%) due to last season’s anomalous -2.78 S.D. snow total. For the sanity of those up in this neck of the woods, let’s hope that doesn’t happen again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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