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I'll see you in September

J Paul Gordon

By J Paul Gordon,
in New England

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

I doubt there has ever been a winter where it only features blizzards on Cape Cod. But Cape Cod-centric winters include 2004-2005, 1986-1987, 1951-1952....1988-1989 even at times and 1998-1999. I suppose you could include 2014-2015, but I would probably call that more Boston-centric rather than Cape Cod-centric even though CC did very well relative to much of New England. Boston and south shore were literally ground zero. I suppose I could take 86-'87 off that list too since the interior of SNE did very well...but Cape Cod did have two huge storms that winter which mostly whiffed the rest of New England...so it had a secondary jackpot with a local minima around Boston and SE MA.

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eekuasepinniW

eekuasepinniW

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  On 9/20/2016 at 9:26 PM, powderfreak said:

I wouldn't take that map with more than a grain of salt as a basic guide.  That zone "3B" makes very little sense in northern VT as it goes from the Champlain Valley through the Spine and then into NE Vermont.  There are like 3 very distinct climate zones there from 4,000ft to 150ft in the Champlain Valley, and then all the elevated hollows of NE/VT.  There's no way the vegetation in the northern Champlain Valley is anyway like the more boreal forest hardiness of NE VT.

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Yeah, it's not even that good for a ballpark.

Has my area in 4b, something that has happened once in the last 30 years.  I'm also in the same zone as HIE and BML... heh.

I'm 6a most years, with the occasional 5b every now and then.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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  On 9/21/2016 at 12:14 AM, ORH_wxman said:

First frost date maps are tough because so much is dependent on little micro-climates. ORH is like a week into October but that's because the airport is on top of a non-radiating hill. Literally at the bottom of the hill it could be 2 weeks earlier. 

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Yeah it's typically mid-late Oct here and ORH,while radiating valleys and swamps like TAN , Ginx, and Metherb are frosting by Oct 1

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

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  On 9/20/2016 at 8:22 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

agreed ... i'm wondering what that compares to climate zones for first hit...   i think that might be early off the top of my head for anything warmer than light blue below?

which is to say mid Mass, NW/NE CT/ extreme NW RI and that bend-back region in S NH coastal Maine.

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It's maybe a couple of days early. A place like CON actually has a mean first freeze date of 9/27.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
  On 9/21/2016 at 12:14 AM, ORH_wxman said:

First frost date maps are tough because so much is dependent on little micro-climates. ORH is like a week into October but that's because the airport is on top of a non-radiating hill. Literally at the bottom of the hill it could be 2 weeks earlier. 

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xmACIS has the long term average at 10-15 for the threaded data, but you go down the road to the closed Coop at Framingham and it's a week earlier.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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  On 9/21/2016 at 12:32 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah it's typically mid-late Oct here and ORH,while radiating valleys and swamps like TAN , Ginx, and Metherb are frosting by Oct 1

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My first frost is around Oct 10th usually, valley? You really need to lay off the Zima before bed. I know 2 gets your skeletor body cocked but take it slow bro

 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
  On 9/21/2016 at 12:14 AM, ORH_wxman said:

First frost date maps are tough because so much is dependent on little micro-climates. ORH is like a week into October but that's because the airport is on top of a non-radiating hill. Literally at the bottom of the hill it could be 2 weeks earlier. 

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should be clear - heh - that wasn't really a frost map; it was a winter lows that i lazily used, but .. i just used it as a rough outline of where frost zones could align. colored annotated regions seemed like minimal guess.

there are apps and/or climo sources everywhere on the web within a minimal time using hand-helds ... or the rapidly antiquating PCs (ha) if someone want to find their locations first average date for frost -

but the reason why i was asking is that i thought it was kind of ironic that we are moving along in a warm hemispheric look and then out of nowhere (esque) we have this mid autumnal air mass sliding down eastern Ontario and trying to clip NE.  yet, despite the fore-said look and to a great deal verification, somehow, someway... we manage an average frost date? - wow. 

it's almost like a synoptic scaled backdoor event.  the colder thickness core passes well NE of us, but confluence between it and the mean flow/ridge over ~ ORD generates/intensifies that high pressure in mid-riff/E Canada, and gets us sort of hybrid involved there.  it's also interesting that any front that really demarcates the entrance to that air mass is rather diffused comparatively on the charts.  NE just sort of defaults into anticyclonic flow, which then intensifies as the high strengthens while moving by to the N.  interesting.   i was noticing the 06z GFS with pearled out high pressure from NW Ontario to NS D' 7-8-9, and the season's first modeled 'damming' signal nosing down.  give us 45 days and that's a icer ;) 

overall though, that's a potential drought buster pattern there in the late middle range.  kind of makes sense in a 'holistic' point of view - we get some kind of odd pattern modulation that supports polar dome genesis to set spatially ideally and coming along with that sort of paradigm shift, we have episodic overunning rains.   let's hope it pans out -

nevertheless, the overnight runs still reasonably coincident with that sort of large scale evolution ... and so it appears the region is destined for the first "real" (not because media thought it cool to spin up...) shot of fall.   ..and yes, replete with frost on the punkin's

 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Posted
  On 9/21/2016 at 11:42 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

The 240 total precip. 

Nada

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granted... even if hyperbolic gest, that region immediately astride your location in eastern NY is nearing 3" ... and most zones otherwise are up to .25 give or take a few hundredths.  

conceptually, counting on 3" on an experimental modeling product that requires 10 days worth of outlook to be spot on perfect spatially is ... neolithic incompetence. 

but obviously, the dumb down disrespect to actual Meteorological sciences less even scientific reasoning that has drowned this social media outlet over the last 7 years is just the perfect enabling source for your ilk of contribution - so don't let responsible thinking and usage get in your way.

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