J Paul Gordon Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 OK, let's start with the the CPC outlook for September, October, November.... looks warm for sure with equal chances of wet or dry... We can all start with making fun of the CPC prognostications... but let's at least start somewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 25, 2016 Share Posted August 25, 2016 Thank God--its great to see this thread at last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 25, 2016 Share Posted August 25, 2016 Days are noticeably shorter. I hate the transition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 25, 2016 Share Posted August 25, 2016 Furnaced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted August 25, 2016 Author Share Posted August 25, 2016 28 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Furnaced Straight through til April 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 25, 2016 Share Posted August 25, 2016 2 hours ago, weathafella said: Days are noticeably shorter. I hate the transition. Definitely noticed it last night. Pool cleaning duties after work ( I get home around 7) were finished in the dark under artificial light for the first time. This morning when I got up 5 ish it was the darkest since April. Even though the days are shorter it can be the best time of year with fish migration at its peak, cool shots with some great line storms, tropical surf in warm waters. Football, football, football, baseball playoffs and world series, epic foliage culminating in the first flakes of snow for many. Definitely my favorite seasonal progression. Looks like a warm fall then all bets are off as the final lag of the super Nino fades and the unpredictability and volatility of a developing weak Nina begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 25, 2016 Share Posted August 25, 2016 Definitely noticed it last night. Pool cleaning duties after work ( I get home around 7) were finished in the dark under artificial light for the first time. This morning when I got up 5 ish it was the darkest since April. Even though the days are shorter it can be the best time of year with fish migration at its peak, cool shots with some great line storms, tropical surf in warm waters. Football, football, football, baseball playoffs and world series, epic foliage culminating in the first flakes of snow for many. Definitely my favorite seasonal progression. Looks like a warm fall then all bets are off as the final lag of the super Nino fades and the unpredictability and volatility of a developing weak Nina begins. I kind of agree on late fall to winter Steve but we disagree on early fall enjoyment. I mean I like the wx but it was still pretty dark at my 5:30 AM wake up this morning. Out with the dog at 5:45-and despite a warm pattern you can tell by the perception of cooler dawns that summer is done.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted August 25, 2016 Share Posted August 25, 2016 5 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Furnaced Trick or treating in flip flops? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 25, 2016 Share Posted August 25, 2016 3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Trick or treating in flip flops? May have to pull the Pony back off the neck to stay cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted August 25, 2016 Author Share Posted August 25, 2016 So let's look at the CPC's BIG PICTURE..... actually equal chances from DJF on (Temperature) and pretty much the same from now on (Precip). Not bad considering that they had us toasting last year, if I remember correctly. Of course, we ought to take the most negative spin (for cold and snow lovers like me) we can.....just to keep in the spirit of things around here. Equal = Hysterically Above Normal (temps) and Morbidly Below Normal (precip). So basically balmy and snowless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 25, 2016 Share Posted August 25, 2016 3 hours ago, weathafella said: I kind of agree on late fall to winter Steve but we disagree on early fall enjoyment. I mean I like the wx but it was still pretty dark at my 5:30 AM wake up this morning. Out with the dog at 5:45-and despite a warm pattern you can tell by the perception of cooler dawns that summer is done. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk My one gripe with winter is the daylight...when you go to work in the dark and return in the dark, it does get to you after a little while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted August 25, 2016 Share Posted August 25, 2016 10 minutes ago, powderfreak said: My one gripe with winter is the daylight...when you go to work in the dark and return in the dark, it does get to you after a little while. That's generally a short window though, like December and part of January. Surely you must see the sun during the day having an outdoor job? When I was younger I worked the overnight shift and there was a couple of weeks around the solstice where I did not see the sun at all. I'd go to bed before the sun rose and wake up after it had set. I guess working the night shift made me immune to having it affect me but I know everyone is different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 25, 2016 Share Posted August 25, 2016 27 minutes ago, powderfreak said: My one gripe with winter is the daylight...when you go to work in the dark and return in the dark, it does get to you after a little while. But you work outside mostly? I understand the in at dark home at dark as I do that . My job entails some outside work but tons of windows everywhere. not getting stuff done outside at home is the problem for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 25, 2016 Share Posted August 25, 2016 You can't torch a winter You can't torch a winter without a spark 4K's on fire Even if we're just driving in the dark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 25, 2016 Share Posted August 25, 2016 1 hour ago, MetHerb said: That's generally a short window though, like December and part of January. Surely you must see the sun during the day having an outdoor job? When I was younger I worked the overnight shift and there was a couple of weeks around the solstice where I did not see the sun at all. I'd go to bed before the sun rose and wake up after it had set. I guess working the night shift made me immune to having it affect me but I know everyone is different. Oh yeah I certainly get plenty of time outdoors in the daylight. For someone who loves winter, I still do feel the lack of sunlight in the mid-winter. It's actually November and December that are the ones that get me. November is like dark stick season and if it's not snowing in December I really feel it. I'm not sure why I do, but I do notice it. I feel more sluggish and less likely to like go out to the bars or something (less social)...hibernation mode I guess. I really enjoy February and March...skiing is usually great and the days are noticeably longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted August 25, 2016 Share Posted August 25, 2016 Late fall w/o snow is the darkest of all. When I lived in Ft. Kent, a snowless early Dec (about one year in 4) meant nightfall seemed to arrive well before 4 PM, and add some nice 35F dz/fog, and by 2:30 it was clearly getting dark. Since sunrise was after 7, it made for a really short daylight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted August 26, 2016 Author Share Posted August 26, 2016 Continuing with the theme of autumn. Will the dry, hot summer contribute to early foliage and leaf drop or will the anticipated warmth stave off color until much later than usual? Speaking of which, when does the foliage peak in the areas folks on this board live in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted August 26, 2016 Share Posted August 26, 2016 4 hours ago, J Paul Gordon said: Continuing with the theme of autumn. Will the dry, hot summer contribute to early foliage and leaf drop or will the anticipated warmth stave off color until much later than usual? Speaking of which, when does the foliage peak in the areas folks on this board live in? August had enough moisture in NW MA that the foliage schedule should be close to normal with maybe some muted colors if we go above normal for the entirety of September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 26, 2016 Share Posted August 26, 2016 16 hours ago, dendrite said: You can't torch a winter You can't torch a winter without a spark 4K's on fire Even if we're just driving in the dark A belated well done! Bruce to the next gtg? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 26, 2016 Share Posted August 26, 2016 ACs? sh it some may need the thermals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 26, 2016 Share Posted August 26, 2016 GFS has the first real shot across the bow now too. Stepping down ever so slowly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 26, 2016 Share Posted August 26, 2016 4 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: ACs? sh it some may need the thermals +4C 850s is pretty good for Sept 2nd. That would produce a good chill. Prob gonna moderate though as we get closer. Might be the Euro overdoing it at D7-8 again. But yeah, the ensemble guidance definitely supports a decent autumn shot of wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 26, 2016 Share Posted August 26, 2016 Should probably make a Sep thread or convert this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 26, 2016 Share Posted August 26, 2016 Usually the best weather month of the year and certainly the best beach month for those seeking solitude and great waves. Could start out rather chilly but An seems to be the theme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 26, 2016 Share Posted August 26, 2016 days 11-15 Yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted August 26, 2016 Author Share Posted August 26, 2016 Just to put my two cents in.... why not create a September thread and leave this one to discuss autumn as a whole? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 26, 2016 Share Posted August 26, 2016 7 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: ACs? sh it some may need the thermals BTV NWS office is ready...had this fun nugget in the AFD. These guys love their winter. LONG TERM....Temperatures will be above normal to start...but trend below normal by late next week...with even the 0C 850mb isotherm progged to make an appearance off both the latest 00z ECMWF/GFS. Some people are excited about the arrival of cooler weather and are looking forward to the upcoming winter months already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted August 26, 2016 Share Posted August 26, 2016 3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Usually the best weather month of the year and certainly the best beach month for those seeking solitude and great waves. Could start out rather chilly but An seems to be the theme. H8s 0 to 2 around here for Labor Day weekend, then 18-20 a week later. My hottest Sept temps have been mostly during that 7th-10th window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 26, 2016 Share Posted August 26, 2016 2 minutes ago, tamarack said: H8s 0 to 2 around here for Labor Day weekend, then 18-20 a week later. My hottest Sept temps have been mostly during that 7th-10th window. The slow step down has begun, US Open week is mostly always hot, then some hot September days but you can feel the change strongly now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 27, 2016 Share Posted August 27, 2016 Euro weeklies like the Harvest moon time frame for tropical mischief according to Mike Ventrice, something to watch as thats a big tide time. DateDay Time Hgt 09/16 Fri 05:13 AM -0.77 L 09/16 Fri 11:24 AM 10.73 H 09/16 Fri 05:33 PM -0.75 L 09/16 Fri 11:44 PM 11.37 H 09/17 Sat 05:59 AM -1.13 L 09/17 Sat 12:10 PM 11.24 H 09/17 Sat 06:22 PM -1.21 L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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