Allsnow Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 6+ of rain on the euro for dca-bwi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 20 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: So close (to this forum) but yet so far. Could have a situation where BWI gets 10 inches and NYC .10 Bad luck recently with cutoffs closing off too far South. Moisture eventually pinwheels up here but the trend has been for that to go more towards SNE now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mriceyman Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 29 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Bad luck recently with cutoffs closing off too far South. Moisture eventually pinwheels up here but the trend has been for that to go more towards SNE now. That would be fabulous.. 2 big outdoor shows in flushing this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 30 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Bad luck recently with cutoffs closing off too far South. Moisture eventually pinwheels up here but the trend has been for that to go more towards SNE now. some of the other models show that well...very little for NYC metro, but bigger amounts NE and SW of the metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: some of the other models show that well...very little for NYC metro, but bigger amounts NE and SW of the metro I'm glad I never really invested in this one. I'm kind of shocked overall that the models locked in several days out and never really wavered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 we drizzle our way to 1.5" over 5 days on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 2 minutes ago, forkyfork said: we drizzle our way to 1.5" over 5 days on the euro that's alot of drizzle. Not much just north of NYC-only .3 to .5 for the HV and CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 6 minutes ago, forkyfork said: we drizzle our way to 1.5" over 5 days on the euro Eh it's something. Maybe somehow it can over perform Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Euripides Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 5 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Eh it's something. Maybe somehow it can over perform Would gladly take 1.5" at this point than another bust or under performer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 4 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Eh it's something. Maybe somehow it can over perform The flow changes from out of the south to out of the southeast tomorrow, and with the ULL so far West, we're going to miss a lot. We really needed the low to make it further East before cutting off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 The HRRR has ticked East the last two runs in a row. We'll see if it means anything. Meanwhile the 18z NAM keeps all of the heavy rain a hundred miles or so West of DC. It's been completely useless for this event from the beginning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 48 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The HRRR has ticked East the last two runs in a row. We'll see if it means anything. Meanwhile the 18z NAM keeps all of the heavy rain a hundred miles or so West of DC. It's been completely useless for this event from the beginning. Your contradicting yourself. You have been saying for days this was going to be way way west. The saving grace in that scenario is we eek out some rain on the se flow that would have went to SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Just now, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Your contradicting yourself. You have been saying for days this was going to be way way west. The saving grace in that scenario is we eek out some rain on the se flow that would have went to SNE I didn't say that at all. My thoughts from the beginning favored E PA and the DC-BWI corridor. I was hopeful it would come East in the end but it never happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 The low level flow is already completely prohibitive of anything coming up this way. You can see here how the winds in E VA are Southerly or even Southwesterly but then shift to Southeasterly over the DE Bay. Over time as the low gradually wakens we should get into more of a Southerly flow and better rain chances but we probably have another 24 hours at least of clouds and occasional showers without seeing anything meaningful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Euripides Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Is that batch of rain to our southwest moving northeast going to make it in our area or will it just fall apart? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Raining at Yankee Stadium Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Rain or no rain love this some what cool and cloudy days we often get around fall time. Today was great working outside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 2 hours ago, NJwx85 said: The low level flow is already completely prohibitive of anything coming up this way. You can see here how the winds in E VA are Southerly or even Southwesterly but then shift to Southeasterly over the DE Bay. Over time as the low gradually wakens we should get into more of a Southerly flow and better rain chances but we probably have another 24 hours at least of clouds and occasional showers without seeing anything meaningful. This is a good post. We obviously won't see much the next 24hrs but the nam is way to far west with the convection right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 2 hours ago, NJwx85 said: The low level flow is already completely prohibitive of anything coming up this way. You can see here how the winds in E VA are Southerly or even Southwesterly but then shift to Southeasterly over the DE Bay. Over time as the low gradually wakens we should get into more of a Southerly flow and better rain chances but we probably have another 24 hours at least of clouds and occasional showers without seeing anything meaningful. And meanwhile we're stuck in the easterly fetch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Beautiful day today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 9 minutes ago, Pamela said: Canadien is wet from Friday afternoon forward; of course I went with it on the hurricane and that did not go my way. I went with the euro and it didn't go my way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 50's and sheet drizzle at the stadium right now! Fall is here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 HRRR made a major shift East. Now gets moderate rain overnight and tomorrow into Western NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 NAM is bone dry-dry wedge holding tough thru 36 hrs - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 13 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: NAM is bone dry-dry wedge holding tough thru 36 hrs - Been clueless all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 29, 2016 Author Share Posted September 29, 2016 Light misty rain falling out there, very fall like raw and rainy night. Looks like the heavier rain is having a hard time making it north of Philly but should eventually work its way into the area. Have to see how things play out over the next couple of days or so, the DC area looks to get hit pretty hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Radar estimates so far have the heaviest rain over the Delmarva. 2-3 inches fell over night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Euro was very wet for the area Friday into Saturday as we get 2+ inches for the metro. Gfs is pretty wet also now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 29, 2016 Author Share Posted September 29, 2016 27 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Radar estimates so far have the heaviest rain so far over the Delmarva. 2-3 inches fell over night. Seeing a report from around Milton Delaware of 7.16" of rain, 6.38" since midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Just now, Rtd208 said: Seeing a report from around Milton Delaware of over 7.16" of rain, 6.38" since midnight. Yeah it has been well east of dca-bwi. Most of the models bring heavy rain into that area today. Here at home getting a steady wind whipped rain this morning. Surprised to see it honestly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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