winterwarlock Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 .06...bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keith O Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 36 minutes ago, winterwarlock said: .06...bust Nothing compared to the soon to be bust for all of NJ and east when we see <0.50" total over the next 4 days. Looks like the drought denting rains will be west of the Del River into central PA. Dry beget dry until otherwise proven, that big high to the NE does a wonderful job at deflecting any beneficial rains to our west and keeps us high and mostly dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 GFS is drizzle and clouds for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 the WAR keeps trending stronger as usual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 12z Euro has 1.50+ for the area but it comes over a 3 day period. Heaviest rain towards out west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 1 hour ago, bluewave said: 9.50" near Baltimore...2.20"...TTN....0.9"...NYC A shift east from 00z lets see if it's a start of a trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 How is the timing for this? Heard we wouldn't see sun for a couple of days yesterday, but it is quite sunny today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 The 18z NAM is almost completely dry through Friday afternoon, but it does have rain moving in by Friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 32 minutes ago, UnionWX said: How is the timing for this? Heard we wouldn't see sun for a couple of days yesterday, but it is quite sunny today. Today is the last sunny day for a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 GFS 18z shifted east in-line with 12z euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 12 minutes ago, Allsnow said: GFS 18z shifted east in-line with 12z euro. Yeah 1-2" for most of NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 10 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Yeah 1-2" for most of NJ. Yep. The Delmarva gets 3-4! Long Island gets in on the rain on Friday with 1-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 the cutoff is west of the 12z run and continues the trend of a stronger WAR pushing the best rain to our west. i think most in this forum won't break an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 28, 2016 Author Share Posted September 28, 2016 Picked up only 0.05" of rain for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Euro has over 2.00+ of rain for the entire area over a 3 day period. The cutoff is still west but we get a good amount of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 26 minutes ago, bluewave said: Models indicating the potential of another extreme 10"+ event for portions of the MA. It's an outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Went from clear sunny skies to completely overcast in the last 20 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Just now, bluewave said: Are you saying the Euro with similar amounts for the MA is an outlier also? No, it's an outlier with that sharp of a cutoff on the Eastern side. Even the 00z ECMWF had roughly 3" of rain into Philly through 60hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 So far the 00z ECMWF is outperforming the GFS badly down South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 17 minutes ago, bluewave said: The 0z Euro has gusts 40-50 mph right near the shore next few days. With the new moon coming up, this could produce minor to locally moderate coastal flooding. Becoming quite gusty already with clouds starting to thicken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 40 minutes ago, bluewave said: The 0z Euro has gusts 40-50 mph right near the shore next few days. With the new moon coming up, this could produce minor to locally moderate coastal flooding. ..nasty ENE winds here on moriches bay..this is one of many reasons why i do not want MATTHEW coming this way..beaches here have been compromised with HERMINE lasting for days..hopefully matthew stays out to sea or better yet..go into the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 The EPS didn't agree with the wetter euro at 00z. As forky said looks to be around a inch for the area over a 3 day period. Somebody is going to go from drought to flood with this cutoff then Matthew at the end of next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 7 minutes ago, Allsnow said: The EPS didn't agree with the wetter euro at 00z. As forky said looks to be around a inch for the area over a 3 day period. Somebody is going to go from drought to flood with this cutoff then Matthew at the end of next week Big if there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Euripides Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Sigh as you can see the moisture drying up on radar as it moves north into our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 42 minutes ago, winterwarlock said: Lol at talking about Matthew waste hitting us 12 days away Usually droughts are broken by big rain events not talking about destruction or direct hit just the possibility is out there. Sorry I forgot this was a weather site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 i'm leaning toward us getting almost no rain at this point. whenever one of these dry wedges from the NE shows up on the models we lose badly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 13 minutes ago, forkyfork said: i'm leaning toward us getting almost no rain at this point. whenever one of these dry wedges from the NE shows up on the models we lose badly I'd tend to agree with you there. Models often under do the dry air.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Experimental HRRR has a large area of 12" of rain from DC and points East with a bullseye of 23.5", and that's just through hr 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 So close (to this forum) but yet so far. Could have a situation where BWI gets 10 inches and NYC .10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 12z euro is a inch of rain for the entire area. Most of that comes Friday into Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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