dmillz25 Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 53 here once again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 44 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 44 at Rutgers garden Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 Enjoy the last day of sun for perhaps a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 42.5 for the morning low in Muttontown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 54 low in the park again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 It looks like 54 may do it for the lowest monthly min this September in NYC. This would be the 3rd warmest on record. HPN at 44 degrees for the month would be the 5th warmest. If the BDR 50 min holds as coldest, then it will tie for warmest monthly min on record with 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 What are the real chances of rain Friday thru Sunday in northeastern CT? I have a 3 day outdoor event I need to plan for. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 44/40 last night...bring on the rains! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 Despite the cool start, yesterday was actually a great beach day. The summer crowds have thinned dramatically. The water still remains abnormally warm. A photo from Robert Moses State Park yesterday: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 43° here last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 2 hours ago, bluewave said: It looks like 54 may do it for the lowest monthly min this September in NYC. This would be the 3rd warmest on record. HPN at 44 degrees for the month would be the 5th warmest. If the BDR 50 min holds as coldest, then it will tie for warmest monthly min on record with 2015. September may also finish with 25 days with minimum temperatures of 60° or above (based on the latest MOS), which would be the 2nd highest figure on record. The record is 26 days, which was set in 1881 and tied in 1908, 1930, and 1971. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 12z GFS is on board with the cut off low. More than 3" of rain in spots by Thursday morning with more to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 5 hours ago, bluewave said: It looks like 54 may do it for the lowest monthly min this September in NYC. This would be the 3rd warmest on record. HPN at 44 degrees for the month would be the 5th warmest. If the BDR 50 min holds as coldest, then it will tie for warmest monthly min on record with 2015. September 1960 had a minimum of 54 so don't worry......after Last December's no temp 32 or lower anything on the warm side can happen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: September may also finish with 25 days with minimum temperatures of 60° or above (based on the latest MOS), which would be the 2nd highest figure on record. The record is 26 days, which was set in 1881 and tied in 1908, 1930, and 1971. You know it has been warm when a -2 daily departure in later September actually feels cold. 32 minutes ago, uncle W said: September 1960 had a minimum of 54 so don't worry......after Last December's no temp 32 or lower anything on the warm side can happen... Last December was in a class by itself. Just goes to show that an historic warm start can't cancel winter when the blocking delivers Jan into Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 the euro barely gives us any rain from the cutoff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 Euro sends most of the rain from the cutoff west of a line from Lancaster PA to Binghamton NY-up to 10 inches in S central PA. This area gets into rains, but not till day 5 and beyond. We all get .25 to .40 tonight from the frontal passage on the EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 The rains from cutoffs almost always end up further north and east than originally thought. Can't tell you how many times I thought I was sitting pretty only to watch the coast get destroyed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 26, 2016 Author Share Posted September 26, 2016 2 hours ago, forkyfork said: the euro barely gives us any rain from the cutoff 43 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The rains from cutoffs almost always end up further north and east than originally thought. Can't tell you how many times I thought I was sitting pretty only to watch the coast get destroyed. It was either the Mt.Holly or Upton NWS office that stated the Euro was a western outlier in their discussion this morning. I believe previous Euro runs showed us getting a good amount of rainfall with the cutoff so hopefully the heavier rains sets up over our area where it is needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: The rains from cutoffs almost always end up further north and east than originally thought. Can't tell you how many times I thought I was sitting pretty only to watch the coast get destroyed. mentioned elsewhere, but a met said that the Euro often has a south and west bias with cutoffs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 26, 2016 Author Share Posted September 26, 2016 I know its the NAM, but the 18z run looks like has the same idea as the Euro for the cutoff low at least early on sending the heaviest rain into C. PA through 84 hrs. Not sure what it will do after that point or how it handles cutoffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 18z GFS is a drencher for most.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 27, 2016 Author Share Posted September 27, 2016 Looks like the 00z GFS moved towards the Euro and NAM with sending the heaviest rainfall into C. PA, we still get some decent rains, just not the amounts that the GFS was showing in previous runs. Have to see what later runs show since the models could be having difficulty resolving where the heaviest rains set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 27, 2016 Author Share Posted September 27, 2016 Unfortunately it looks like areas that really need a good heavy rain event to ease the drought may get skunked again as the heaviest rain may fall west of our area over PA with the cutoff low. Still some uncertainty exactly where this sets up but it is not looking good at the moment, but any rainfall will be welcomed even if its on the lighter side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 27, 2016 Author Share Posted September 27, 2016 LOL..you cant make this stuff up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 Eps went west also and now has very little rain for our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 Although LGA will lose the top spot for Sep, it will still pull off yet another top ten warmest finish. Top 10 warmest months at LGA since 2010: Streak #1 3/10....#3 4/10....#1 5/10....#5 6/10....#1 7/10....#1 8/10....#8 9/10....#5 Streak #2 7/11....#9 9/11....#9 11/11...#5 12/11...#5 1/12....#10 2/12....#1 3/12....#1 4/12....#3 5/12....#6 7/12....#9 8/12....#6 9/12....#9 7/13....#3 10/13...#9 Streak #3 5/15....#3 8/15....#3 9/15....#2 11/15...#3 12/15...#1 3/16....#2 7/16....#4 8/16....#1 9/16....#1 through 26th but will fall back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 18 minutes ago, bluewave said: Although LGA will lose the top spot for Sep, it will still pull off yet another top ten warmest finish. Warmest Sept on my station record is 2005...looks like this year will finish just below that record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 .33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 On 9/26/2016 at 9:59 AM, donsutherland1 said: Despite the cool start, yesterday was actually a great beach day. The summer crowds have thinned dramatically. The water still remains abnormally warm. A photo from Robert Moses State Park yesterday: great shot. September is one of the best beach months for the reasons you listed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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