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September 2016 Discussion/Obs


Rtd208

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10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Hoping the biggest -NAO drop in months can deliver on a cutoff low and soaking rain potential to ease drought conditions a bit.

 

nao.sprd2.jpg

 

 

 

Hope so, the GFS lost that idea after showing some big rain amounts for our area earlier in the week for a few runs but it may be slowly coming back around to that idea. Honestly, we really need a good soaking rain storm around here that delivers at least a few inches of rainfall.

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4 hours ago, JerseyWx said:

Currently 55°, so tonight should seal the deal on the first 40s of the season.  Definitely can smell and feel that Fall is in the air.

 

Lowest temp so far was 50° a couple weeks back.

 

Wow you haven't hit the 40s yet down your way? Tomorrow night is gonna be the colder night of the 2

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19 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

Hope so, the GFS lost that idea after showing some big rain amounts for our area earlier in the week for a few runs but it may be slowly coming back around to that idea. Honestly, we really need a good soaking rain storm around here that delivers at least a few inches of rainfall.

More models coming onboard the cutoff idea as +300-400M blocking height anomalies to our north is pretty strong for late September.

The NAO and EPO are taking a significant dip around the same time.

 

 

eps_z500a_exnamer_21.png

 

 

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7 hours ago, snywx said:

 

Wow you haven't hit the 40s yet down your way? Tomorrow night is gonna be the colder night of the 2

 Yeah I know, I'm very surprised we couldn't do it when we had that last cool down.  The conditions weren't prime here for cooling those nights if I recall.

Last night did it though, the low was 45°.  Tonight should be cooler as you said, definitely 30s up your way.  I'll have to wait until October for Frost.

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

More models coming onboard the cutoff idea as +300-400M blocking height anomalies to our north is pretty strong for late September.

The NAO and EPO are taking a significant dip around the same time.

 

 

eps_z500a_exnamer_21.png

 

 

Beyond later this week and into the weekend, it also looks like we could have a substantial storm threat affecting us in the October 6th-10th time frame. Its a little ways out yet but certainly something to keep an eye on. Hopefully this is the beginning of a much more active pattern as we head deeper into fall and the winter months.

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4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

12z GFS is pretty wet for the end of next week also with cut off 

Definitely moved towards the Euro, wouldn't surprise me if it gets even wetter. Back earlier last week it had some pretty heavy rain amounts and it seems to be moving back in that direction again after losing the idea for a while.

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3 hours ago, JerseyWx said:

 Yeah I know, I'm very surprised we couldn't do it when we had that last cool down.  The conditions weren't prime here for cooling those nights if I recall.

Last night did it though, the low was 45°.  Tonight should be cooler as you said, definitely 30s up your way.  I'll have to wait until October for Frost.

Yeah 41° here this morning.. Tonight should be nice and chilly. 

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