Isotherm Posted September 17, 2016 Share Posted September 17, 2016 56 minutes ago, uncle W said: the warm waters in the Atlantic could have some say in how cool it gets on the coast...it's only recently the September minimums are going up each year on average...I remember September 1963 which is a top ten coolest September and it seemed like there was a record low set once a week...It had the second earliest 49 degree temp on record with a max in the mid 50's... Correct; the shift of the decadal AMO to predominantly positive in the mid/late 1990s resulted in an overall warming of September mean temperatures. If one examines the correlation coefficients between the AMO and surface temperatures, it's apparent that early autumn/late summer temps along the immediate Northeast coast are most strongly correlated to the AMO (positive correlation). The correlation coefficient is 0.5 which is fairly significant compared to the other months. It makes sense meteorologically because the mid latitude jet stream tends to be weakest in late summer/early autumn which permits a more material influence from the oceans. Once the jet stream intensifies and airmasses become predominantly continental with NWLY persistent flow, the correlation coefficient decreases to near 0 by December here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 17, 2016 Share Posted September 17, 2016 models slowing the rains down again, NAM doesnt have much until daybreak on Monday-would think tomorrow is dryer and warmer than expected... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted September 17, 2016 Share Posted September 17, 2016 Thru mid month running a mean temp of 73.8 degrees which is a +4.2 departure...warmest Sept is 72.0 degrees in 2005 . 0.36" of rain for month with nothing measurable since the 1st. The t-storm gust front the other day(no rain) looked like late Oct with all the leaves coming down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 17, 2016 Share Posted September 17, 2016 20 minutes ago, doncat said: Thru mid month running a mean temp of 73.8 degrees which is a +4.2 departure...warmest Sept is 72.0 degrees in 2005 . 0.36" of rain for month with nothing measurable since the 1st. The t-storm gust front the other day(no rain) looked like late Oct with all the leaves coming down. I took a ride along the Southern State and Meadowbrook Parkways yesterday. It was easy to mistake the whole trees at a distance with brown leaves for early fall color. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted September 17, 2016 Share Posted September 17, 2016 3 hours ago, bluewave said: Warm September patterns in the 2000's. Warmest September mins at NYC: 59...2016...so far 57...1910 56...2015...1921 54...2010...2002...1982...1960...1891 53...2012...1994...1968...1881 52...2014...2004..other years 51...2011...2008....and other years 50...2007...2005...2003...2001...and other years It's silly to post this on Sept 17th. It's almost a lock that NYC will get a cooler temperature later in the month especially if the progged troughing over the central US moves eastward in the latter part of the month. Plenty of time to break the 59F minimum given temperatures accelerate their decline around the equinox. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 17, 2016 Share Posted September 17, 2016 Euro is back to being real wet for the area Monday morning 1-2 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted September 18, 2016 Share Posted September 18, 2016 Any updates..this board is crickets with potientially the biggest rainmaker in months on our doorstep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 18, 2016 Share Posted September 18, 2016 2 hours ago, winterwarlock said: Any updates..this board is crickets with potientially the biggest rainmaker in months on our doorstep Meh, most places will see less than an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted September 18, 2016 Share Posted September 18, 2016 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: Meh, most places will see less than an inch. Hopefully we get lucky...17 straight days here with nothing measurable. 12z rgem looks pretty wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted September 18, 2016 Share Posted September 18, 2016 What happened to the upper 80's to near 90 for late this week into the weekend I was seeing a couple of days ago? Forecast now showing low 80's for the end of the week and only low 70's into the weekend and next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 18, 2016 Share Posted September 18, 2016 1 hour ago, doncat said: Hopefully we get lucky...17 straight days here with nothing measurable. 12z rgem looks pretty wet. Gfs does too but lately it's always overdone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 18, 2016 Share Posted September 18, 2016 35 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said: What happened to the upper 80's to near 90 for late this week into the weekend I was seeing a couple of days ago? Forecast now showing low 80's for the end of the week and only low 70's into the weekend and next week Climo. Tough to hit 90 so late in the month. Also have the remnants of Julia possibly coming into play on some models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted September 18, 2016 Share Posted September 18, 2016 Forecasters seem bullish on julia interacting on Monday morning but im skeptical given the trend for everything to dry out before it actual gets here Still seeing 80s forecast for me through Saturday and some of the mid 80s..wheres forky to deliver the heat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 18, 2016 Share Posted September 18, 2016 Hoping the Euro 2"+ stripe from SW to NE verifies for Monday since we need any rain that we can get here. May come down to a nowcast as to whether and where the the best convection sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 18, 2016 Share Posted September 18, 2016 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Hoping the Euro 2"+ stripe from SW to NE verifies for Monday since we need any rain that we can get here. May come down to a nowcast as to whether and where the the best convection sets up. doing some yard work and the soil is like sand it's so bone dry out there, Euro is slower, mostly a Monday late day and night event now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted September 18, 2016 Share Posted September 18, 2016 Yeah. It's gonna be tough to achieve temperatures hitting 90*F. The highest we will see is 85*F for summer's last gasp between today and Thursday. After Saturday, Autumn's chill will start to settle in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 18, 2016 Share Posted September 18, 2016 Dew point 73. ****ing brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 18, 2016 Share Posted September 18, 2016 11 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: doing some yard work and the soil is like sand it's so bone dry out there, Euro is slower, mostly a Monday late day and night event now. The Euro training band is only about 20-30 miles wide where it places the heaviest rain. Falls off pretty good with lower amounts either side of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted September 18, 2016 Share Posted September 18, 2016 1 minute ago, bluewave said: The Euro training band is only about 20-30 miles wide where it places the heaviest rain. Falls off pretty good with lower amounts either side of it. Amounts for around the city? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 18, 2016 Share Posted September 18, 2016 Just now, doncat said: Amounts for around the city? Not sure if the 0z will have same solution since the boundaries and convection may change. But the 12Z has a 2.5" narrow band from TTN south of Staten Island to JFK with lighter amounts either side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted September 18, 2016 Share Posted September 18, 2016 6 minutes ago, bluewave said: Not sure if the 0z will have same solution since the boundaries and convection may change. But the 12Z has a 2.5" narrow band from TTN south of Staten Island to JFK with lighter amounts either side. Thanks...One positive is that none of the models are really dry at this point...just a matter of where the heaviest will set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted September 18, 2016 Share Posted September 18, 2016 random cell over head here in white plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 18, 2016 Share Posted September 18, 2016 Newark just missed the record high today by 3 degrees. MAXIMUM 87 209 PM 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 Where's the front? Sick of the tropical air and my A/C's not working... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 Radar downstream looks crappy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 Today's Highs ACY: 88 EWR: 87 TEB: 87 PHL: 87 New Bnswk: 86 TTN: 86 LGA: 85 NYC: 82 ISP: 81 JFK: 80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 Radar looks good now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 19, 2016 Author Share Posted September 19, 2016 MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0677 NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 244 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC STATES CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE VALID 190643Z - 191230Z SUMMARY...INCREASING COVERAGE OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH TRAINING AXES COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION TO SEE 4-6 INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH 12Z. DESPITE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. DISCUSSION...LONG LOOP OF THE CIRA LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) PRODUCT SHOWED THE COMBINING OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JULIA AND DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY FROM 0615Z SHOWED BANDS OF SHOWERS OVER ERN PA TO NRN VA...ALIGNING WITHIN AREAS OF LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE AHEAD OF A LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. ALOFT...UPPER LEVEL FLOW SUPPORTED AN AXIS OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING 70-100 KT JET AXIS. WHILE BETTER INSTABILITY WAS IN PLACE TOWARD THE COAST ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW...BETTER SUPPORTING AXES OF TRAINING HEAVY RAINFALL...FORCING FOR ASCENT WAS DISPLACED SLIGHTLY WWD AS OF 06Z. HOWEVER...WITH THE ADVANCING TROUGH AXIS FROM THE WEST...THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE AND UPEPR LEVEL DIVERGENCE/DIFFLUENCE WILL BEGIN TO OVERLAP FROM SW TO NE...EXTENDING FROM MUCH OF S-CNTRL VA INTO ERN PA AND NJ. WHILE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS AS HIGH AS 4+ INCHES IN 3 HOURS DUE TO A LACK OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 2 WEEKS...IF TRAINING AXES OF 1-2+ IN/HR RAINS SIT OVER AN AREA LONG ENOUGH...FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 3-6 HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3-5 INCHES. OTTO ATTN...WFO...AKQ...ALY...BGM...CTP...LWX...OKX...PHI...RAH... RNK... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 heavy rain and thunder here. Radar looks great to give everyone a good dump of rain today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 Looks like the real deal today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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