Rtd208 Posted September 29, 2016 Author Share Posted September 29, 2016 On 9/29/2016 at 10:21 AM, Allsnow said: Yeah it has been well east of dca-bwi. Most of the models bring heavy rain into that area today. Here at home getting a steady wind whipped rain this morning. Surprised to see it honestly Expand It is very raw and fall like this morning. We need to watch how the rain progresses into the area today, it wouldn't surprise me if we get more rain today then what the models are showing. Nowcasting in full effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 .03 so far here..lets see what happens...radar appears good for rains for NJ at least for the morning but will it deliver Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 And looks like radar is really breaking up over Jersey..looks like if this continues I will be heading into work after 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Magnificent windy morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 BDR still narrowly holding onto warmest September status by just a few tenths with the cooler weather continuing today and tomorrow shaving a few more tenths off. Sep rankings through the 28th NYC...#4 BDR...#1 LGA...#2 EWR..#4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 On 9/29/2016 at 12:21 PM, bluewave said: NYC and BDR still narrowly holding onto warmest September status by just a few tenths with the cooler weather continuing today and tomorrow shaving a few more tenths off. Sep rankings through the 28th NYC...#1 BDR...#1 LGA...#2 EWR..#4 Expand I'm not sure about NYC (Central Park). Through 9/28, the average has been 72.7°. September 2015 had a monthly average of 74.5°. http://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/monthlyannualtemp.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Windy here, but returns on radar struggling north as the dry air gets pumped in from the north and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 On 9/29/2016 at 12:57 PM, donsutherland1 said: I'm not sure about NYC (Central Park). Through 9/28, the average has been 72.7°. September 2015 had a monthly average of 74.5°. http://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/monthlyannualtemp.pdf Expand You are right. The ranking list just updated and it has NYC in 4th place with a few more cooler days to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Just about making it to minor coastal flooding levels at places like Freeport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 On 9/29/2016 at 1:07 PM, bluewave said: You are right. The ranking list just updated and it has NYC in 4th place with a few more cooler days to go. Expand FWIW, the update didn't fix the typo in the list of 6" or greater snowfalls. The 26.9" that fell 2/11-12/2006 is still described as the "all time record." The 1/22-24/2016 figure of 27.5" is on the list. http://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/sixplussnow.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 On 9/29/2016 at 1:25 PM, donsutherland1 said: FWIW, the update didn't fix the typo in the list of 6" or greater snowfalls. The 26.9" that fell 2/11-12/2006 is still described as the "all time record." The 1/22-24/2016 figure of 27.5" is on the list. http://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/sixplussnow.pdf Expand They must have missed that file as they updated it on this one. http://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/BiggestSnowstorms.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 The 12z NAM seems too far West again, with the focus of heavier rain this afternoon over extreme southern DE and Eastern MD. Meanwhile current radar indicates the heavier rain will fall over DE and SNJ through the next several hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 The dry wedge is slowly creeping SW from Eastern CT where the sun is out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 I think we get a solid 1-2" over the next 48 hours or so, and that's with the rain currently near the Delmarva passing to our Southwest. It won't be anything remarkable but it will be enough to wet the ground and limit some of the recent drought damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 On 9/29/2016 at 2:34 PM, NJwx85 said: I think we get a solid 1-2" over the next 48 hours or so, and that's with the rain currently near the Delmarva passing to our Southwest. It won't be anything remarkable but it will be enough to wet the ground and limit some of the recent drought damage. Expand as long as models aren't underdoing that dry push of air-my DP has been dropping all morning and I'm seeing blue skies creeping in from the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 On 9/29/2016 at 3:15 PM, Brian5671 said: as long as models aren't underdoing that dry push of air-my DP has been dropping all morning and I'm seeing blue skies creeping in from the NE. Expand That dry push should cease once the ULL begins opening up and the flow flips back to out of the South late tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 For now, the rain is hitting a brick wall near the AC Expressway. I feel fairly confident about forecasting a mostly dry forecast for the city until late tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Getting in alot of cuttings today courtesy of another busted forecast...called this one yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 On 9/29/2016 at 5:16 PM, winterwarlock said: Getting in alot of cuttings today courtesy of another busted forecast...called this one yesterday Expand Nobody on here was calling for widespread rain in our area until tonight and tomorrow. Nobody cares about what the met on 101.5 said, which forecasts mainly for Central and Southern NJ only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Drenching for our area showing up now on the extended experimental HRRR after midnight. A widespread 1-2" before noon tomorrow with 2-3" for NE coastal NJ and more on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 On 9/29/2016 at 5:16 PM, winterwarlock said: Getting in alot of cuttings today courtesy of another busted forecast...called this one yesterday Expand This definitely wasn't a bust. Every model was showing rain for tonight into tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 On 9/29/2016 at 5:21 PM, dmillz25 said: This definitely wasn't a bust. Every model was showing rain for tonight into tomorrow Expand The entire evolution of the storm has actually been remarkably well modeled so far. Pretty solid consensus currently for 1-2" over the next two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 On 9/29/2016 at 5:27 PM, NJwx85 said: The entire evolution of the storm has actually been remarkably well modeled so far. Pretty solid consensus currently for 1-2" over the next two days. Expand Yeah good job so far. The rain is definitely needed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 completely clear and sunny here and 68 yet my point and click says cloudy all day with drizzle and 62 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 On 9/29/2016 at 5:32 PM, Brian5671 said: completely clear and sunny here and 68 yet my point and click says cloudy all day with drizzle and 62 Expand Congrats. You're probably not going to see much in the way of rain at all. The focus area for tonight and tomorrow appears to be NJ and NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 On 9/29/2016 at 5:41 PM, NJwx85 said: Congrats. You're probably not going to see much in the way of rain at all. The focus area for tonight and tomorrow appears to be NJ and NY. Expand my point was more "look out the window" - on the rain end, trust me I'm rooting for it, we're down alot around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 On 9/29/2016 at 5:32 PM, Brian5671 said: completely clear and sunny here and 68 yet my point and click says cloudy all day with drizzle and 62 Expand I can see the blue skies quickly working their way south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 On 9/29/2016 at 5:45 PM, Brian5671 said: my point was more "look out the window" - on the rain end, trust me I'm rooting for it, we're down alot around here. Expand I'm just glad I don't live in DC or the immediate suburbs. Forecast was solidly locked in for 5-10" of rain and most places are under 2" with a dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 On 9/29/2016 at 5:55 PM, NJwx85 said: I'm just glad I don't live in DC or the immediate suburbs. Forecast was solidly locked in for 5-10" of rain and most places are under 2" with a dry slot. Expand upper low ended up further west due the strong WAR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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