September 2016 Discussion/Obs

[mattinpa]

  On 9/8/2016 at 11:58 PM, Stormlover74 said:

With the gfs looking mostly seasonal or a bit below after the weekend I wonder if tomorrow/ Saturday is our last 90 degree day?...except for central park of course which may already be done

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Never say never, but I think it is. It could still be above average at times, but remember the averages by then.

[Brian5671]

  On 9/9/2016 at 4:03 PM, mattinpa said:

Never say never, but I think it is. It could still be above average at times, but remember the averages by then.

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90 gets tougher and tougher.  A plus 5 on 9/25 won't do it.  with that said, this month looks like a blowtorch overall.  AN temps and dry ground adding some more.

[Stormlover74]

While its most likely out to lunch, the GFS is quite wet this afternoon/evening and again tomorrow night into Sunday, with totals over an 1"

[bluewave]

90 degree readings after September 15th are pretty rare around here. I believe the last time for Newark was 2010.

[mattinpa]

  On 9/9/2016 at 4:11 PM, Brian5671 said:

90 gets tougher and tougher.  A plus 5 on 9/25 won't do it.  with that said, this month looks like a blowtorch overall.  AN temps and dry ground adding some more.

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Next week looks nice with 70s. After that, it is kind of out of certainty range but it wouldn't surprise me if we still had more summery periods.

[Stormlover74]

  On 9/9/2016 at 4:25 PM, mattinpa said:

Next week looks nice with 70s. After that, it is kind of out of certainty range but it wouldn't surprise me if we still had more summery periods.

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Basically average at best next week with average highs getting into the mid 70s. Certainly nothing really below

[dmillz25]

90 at the park

[bluewave]

The Euro weeklies don't have any below average weeks for the next 45 days.

The ridge stays planted over the hot tub known as the Western Atlantic.

[Euripides]

  On 9/9/2016 at 4:18 PM, Stormlover74 said:

While its most likely out to lunch, the GFS is quite wet this afternoon/evening and again tomorrow night into Sunday, with totals over an 1"

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Would so love for that to come true.

 

[uncle W]

  On 9/9/2016 at 1:24 PM, Rjay said:

How many days in the history of KNYC has the temp not dropped below 80 in September?

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never...

9/1	76 in 2015	76 in 2010	76 in 1980+
9/2	79 in 1898	78 in 2010	77 in 2014+
9/3	78 in 1898	77 in 1953	76 in 1993
9/4	78 in 1898	77 in 1907	76 in 1953
9/5	77 in 1985	77 in 1907	77 in 1898
9/6	78 in 1985	77 in 1983	77 in 1910
9/7	79 in 1881	75 in 1983	75 in 1884
9/8	76 in 2015	75 in 1919	74 in 1985+
9/9	77 in 1884	76 in 2015	74 in 1959
9/10	77 in 1884	74 in 1996	74 in 1895
9/11	78 in 1983	77 in 2013	77 in 1884
9/12	77 in 1895	73 in 1961	73 in 1947
9/13	75 in 1890	74 in 1961	74 in 1947+
9/14	74 in 1947	73 in 1915	72 in 1961+
9/15	75 in 2005	75 in 1931	74 in 1915
9/16	73 in 2005	73 in 1903	72 in 1930+
9/17	77 in 1991	72 in 1915	71 in 1930+
9/18	72 in 1972	72 in 1905	71 in 1991+
9/19	74 in 1906	73 in 1905	70 in 1894
9/20	77 in 1906	73 in 1983	72 in 2005+
9/21	77 in 1895	75 in 1906	72 in 1989
9/22	75 in 1895	73 in 1989	73 in 1980
9/23	77 in 1970	76 in 1895	70 in 1965
9/24	74 in 1970	70 in 2011	70 in 1891
9/25	71 in 1970	71 in 1881	70 in 2011+
9/26	73 in 1881	72 in 1970	72 in 1891
9/27	75 in 1881	71 in 2007	71 in 1910+
9/28	72 in 1891	71 in 1881	70 in 2010+
9/29	72 in 2015	72 in 1959	71 in 1979+
9/30	70 in 1959	69 in 2010	69 in 1986
10/1	72 in 1954	72 in 1881	70 in 1959
10/2	72 in 1954	69 in 1927	67 in 1971+
10/3	68 in 1969	68 in 1954	67 in 1898
10/4	75 in 1898	70 in 1954	69 in 2007+
10/5	75 in 1898	71 in 1941	71 in 1910
10/6	71 in 1910	66 in 2007	66 in 1941+
10/7	70 in 2005	67 in 2007	67 in 1937

[Cfa]

Clouded up here in Selden, was just sunny about a half an hour ago, it's still hot though. We'll see what happens with these storms later.

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

  On 9/9/2016 at 5:11 PM, bluewave said:

The Euro weeklies don't have any below average weeks for the next 45 days.

The ridge stays planted over the hot tub known as the Western Atlantic.

Yikes. Well best to get this over with now. Rather than encountering this in the winter.

Sent from my ZTE A2017U using Tapatalk

[dWave]

  On 9/9/2016 at 5:54 PM, uncle W said:

never...

9/1	76 in 2015	76 in 2010	76 in 1980+
9/2	79 in 1898	78 in 2010	77 in 2014+
9/3	78 in 1898	77 in 1953	76 in 1993
9/4	78 in 1898	77 in 1907	76 in 1953
9/5	77 in 1985	77 in 1907	77 in 1898
9/6	78 in 1985	77 in 1983	77 in 1910
9/7	79 in 1881	75 in 1983	75 in 1884
9/8	76 in 2015	75 in 1919	74 in 1985+
9/9	77 in 1884	76 in 2015	74 in 1959
9/10	77 in 1884	74 in 1996	74 in 1895
9/11	78 in 1983	77 in 2013	77 in 1884
9/12	77 in 1895	73 in 1961	73 in 1947
9/13	75 in 1890	74 in 1961	74 in 1947+
9/14	74 in 1947	73 in 1915	72 in 1961+
9/15	75 in 2005	75 in 1931	74 in 1915
9/16	73 in 2005	73 in 1903	72 in 1930+
9/17	77 in 1991	72 in 1915	71 in 1930+
9/18	72 in 1972	72 in 1905	71 in 1991+
9/19	74 in 1906	73 in 1905	70 in 1894
9/20	77 in 1906	73 in 1983	72 in 2005+
9/21	77 in 1895	75 in 1906	72 in 1989
9/22	75 in 1895	73 in 1989	73 in 1980
9/23	77 in 1970	76 in 1895	70 in 1965
9/24	74 in 1970	70 in 2011	70 in 1891
9/25	71 in 1970	71 in 1881	70 in 2011+
9/26	73 in 1881	72 in 1970	72 in 1891
9/27	75 in 1881	71 in 2007	71 in 1910+
9/28	72 in 1891	71 in 1881	70 in 2010+
9/29	72 in 2015	72 in 1959	71 in 1979+
9/30	70 in 1959	69 in 2010	69 in 1986
10/1	72 in 1954	72 in 1881	70 in 1959
10/2	72 in 1954	69 in 1927	67 in 1971+
10/3	68 in 1969	68 in 1954	67 in 1898
10/4	75 in 1898	70 in 1954	69 in 2007+
10/5	75 in 1898	71 in 1941	71 in 1910
10/6	71 in 1910	66 in 2007	66 in 1941+
10/7	70 in 2005	67 in 2007	67 in 1937

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Still have to get to midnight 80+. Could go either way. T storms have to miss the city. 

[Stormlover74]

  On 9/9/2016 at 6:48 PM, dWave said:

Still have to get to midnight 80+. Could go either way. T storms have to miss the city. 

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Thunderstorms? lolol

[Morris]

Islip and LGA broke their daily records.

[Brian5671]

BDR tied the record at 89-had the clouds not moved back in would have broken it.

[Rtd208]

Current temp 92/DP 73/RH 54%

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Enough with the heat and dry: this is really starting to get awful 

[nesussxwx]

  On 9/9/2016 at 7:55 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Enough with the heat and dry: this is really starting to get awful 

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Dust bowl out there. Same thing occured last year as well. Seems as if we have dry periods, and then we have wet periods. 

[bluewave]

  On 9/9/2016 at 6:29 PM, IntenseBlizzard2014 said:

Yikes. Well best to get this over with now. Rather than encountering this in the winter.

Sent from my ZTE A2017U using Tapatalk

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Be interesting to see if we continue with the lat

The last 5 Decembers were mild but 11-12 never turned around. Hard to believe our last front-loaded winter was 10-11.

 

[Brian5671]

  On 9/9/2016 at 8:13 PM, bluewave said:

Be interesting to see if we continue with the late start to winter theme for a 5th year in a row with another mild December.

The last 5 Decembers were mild but 11-12 never turned around. Hard to believe our last front-loaded winter was 10-11.

 

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Dec '13 had a period of cold and snow in the middle of the month.   Had a storm with 6 inches of snow capped by freezing rain here.  Other than that, we are back to snowless Decembers.

[bluewave]

  On 9/9/2016 at 8:19 PM, Brian5671 said:

Dec '13 had a period of cold and snow in the middle of the month.   Had a storm with 6 inches of snow capped by freezing rain here.  Other than that, we are back to snowless Decembers.

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The December 2013 record high of 71 on the 21st keep the December warm streak that began in 2011 going. We were lucky that the 11-12 was the only winter

without decent snows and blocking. So far we are at 4 back-loaded winters that started late in a row.

[forkyfork]

  On 9/9/2016 at 8:23 PM, bluewave said:

The December 2013 record high of 71 on the 21st keep the December warm streak that began in 2011 going. We were lucky that the 11-12 was the only winter

without decent snows and blocking. So far we are at 4 back-loaded winters that started late in a row.

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dec 2013 was still snowier than average. that one week warm spell erased all the cold days that month

[forkyfork]

another 80+ min possible tonight

[bluewave]

  On 9/9/2016 at 8:41 PM, forkyfork said:

dec 2013 was still snowier than average. that one week warm spell erased all the cold days that month

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While it was snowier than average due to that one storm during the coldest week, the 71 max on the 21st was the most significant weather record of the month.

That was the 3rd highest December max on record for NYC.

75...1998

72...2015...1982

71...2013...2001

70...2006...1984...1946

 

 

 

[Brian5671]

  On 9/9/2016 at 9:09 PM, bluewave said:

While it was snowier than average due to that one storm during the coldest week, the 71 max on the 21st was the most significant weather record of the month.

That was the 3rd highest December max on record for NYC.

75...1998

72...2015...1982

71...2013...2001

70...2006...1984...1946

 

 

 

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crazy.  I remember that now.   Wiped out all the snow just in time for XMAS.  At least last year there was nothing to wash away.

[bluewave]

  On 9/9/2016 at 9:26 PM, Brian5671 said:

crazy.  I remember that now.   Wiped out all the snow just in time for XMAS.  At least last year there was nothing to wash away.

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It's interesting that December during the 2000's has turned out the biggest winter month for record warmth in NYC.

2000's NYC daily DJF record highs:

Dec...13

Jan....7

Feb...3

[winterwarlock]

93 for me today

[uncle W]

  On 9/9/2016 at 9:49 PM, bluewave said:

It's interesting that December during the 2000's has turned out the biggest winter month for record warmth in NYC.

2000's NYC daily DJF record highs:

Dec...13

Jan....7

Feb...3

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December has also seen some major snowstorms also since 2000...

Dec. 2000...12.0"

Dec. 2002...6.0"...5.0"

Dec. 2003...14.0"...5.8"

Dec. 2005...5.8"

Dec. 2008...4.5"

Dec. 2009...10.9"

Dec. 2010...20.0"

Dec. 2013...5.0"

 

[Cfa]

Topped out at 94 after a low of 77. Could use some rain but looking at the radar we'll be lucky if we get anything.