Rtd208 Posted August 26, 2016 Share Posted August 26, 2016 Discuss here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted August 27, 2016 Share Posted August 27, 2016 I'm expecting a continued decline in sun angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 27, 2016 Share Posted August 27, 2016 Daylight loss aside, the pattern is such that it will continue to feel much like summer as we progress into mid September. Solid string of positive SOI dailies indicative of large scale east --> west flow, low frequency tropical forcing in the WPAC, and upper level convergence signal propagating ewd into the central tropical Pacific by week 2. These larger scale alterations should aid the development / retrogression of the mid-level ridge south of AK in the Pacific, thereby inducing the downstream trough amplification in the Rockies/PAC NW, and concomitant E US ridge expansion. Very conducive pattern as currently progged on the ensembles for a very hot Labor Day-9/10 period; not merely the run of the mill +1 SD warmth we've been seeing as of late, but a potential anomalous heat stretch in that September 5th-10th period. Some of my analogs for this summer, such as 1988 and 1983, also produced some impressive late season heat, so there is historical support in conjunction w/ latest global indicators and model guidance. Overall, I'm not really seeing any perceivable indication of protracted autumn temperatures in the Northeast. The possibility exists for a very hot second week of September, and thereafter, a proclivity for the maintenance of the SE ridge appears reasonable. This summer has - heretofore - generally been devoid of impressive/widespread > +20c 850mb pulses into the Northeast; however, Sept 5+ could produce such an event if the ridge/trough orientation evolves as modelled. Would not be surprised to see 100F at DCA once again with mid-upper 90s up the I-95 corridor. The second week of September should feature a classic looking Nina / low AAM regime w/ the mid latitude ridging south of AK, strong vortex north of Greenland, and corresponding/teleconnecting trough and ridge in the West and East respectively (does this pattern look familiar? --> December 2015?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted August 27, 2016 Share Posted August 27, 2016 13 minutes ago, Isotherm said: Daylight loss aside, the pattern is such that it will continue to feel much like summer as we progress into mid September. Solid string of positive SOI dailies indicative of large scale east --> west flow, low frequency tropical forcing in the WPAC, and upper level convergence signal propagating ewd into the central tropical Pacific by week 2. These larger scale alterations should aid the development / retrogression of the mid-level ridge south of AK in the Pacific, thereby inducing the downstream trough amplification in the Rockies/PAC NW, and concomitant E US ridge expansion. Very conducive pattern as currently progged on the ensembles for a very hot Labor Day-9/10 period; not merely the run of the mill +1 SD warmth we've been seeing as of late, but a potential anomalous heat stretch in that September 5th-10th period. Some of my analogs for this summer, such as 1988 and 1983, also produced some impressive late season heat, so there is historical support in conjunction w/ latest global indicators and model guidance. Overall, I'm not really seeing any perceivable indication of protracted autumn temperatures in the Northeast. The possibility exists for a very hot second week of September, and thereafter, a proclivity for the maintenance of the SE ridge appears reasonable. This summer has - heretofore - generally been devoid of impressive/widespread > +20c 850mb pulses into the Northeast; however, Sept 5+ could produce such an event if the ridge/trough orientation evolves as modelled. Would not be surprised to see 100F at DCA once again with mid-upper 90s up the I-95 corridor. The second week of September should feature a classic looking Nina / low AAM regime w/ the mid latitude ridging south of AK, strong vortex north of Greenland, and corresponding/teleconnecting trough and ridge in the West and East respectively (does this pattern look familiar? --> December 2015?). So we are in agreement on the loss of sunlight? All joking aside, nice work, as always and we are in agreement. Especially as I sweat sitting out in my yard today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted August 28, 2016 Share Posted August 28, 2016 6 hours ago, IrishRob17 said: I'm expecting a continued decline in sun angle. That is the most certain prediction, lol. I am hoping Isotherm is wrong, but he does always give thorough analysis, agree or not. So far I don't see any 20c temps - we'll have to watch. Autumn has to come soon I hope! Who knows in our new world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted August 28, 2016 Share Posted August 28, 2016 40 minutes ago, mattinpa said: That is the most certain prediction, lol. I am hoping Isotherm is wrong, but he does always give thorough analysis, agree or not. So far I don't see any 20c temps - we'll have to watch. Autumn has to come soon I hope! Who knows in our new world. It can stay above normal for now as long as it flips in late November and stays that way for a few months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted August 28, 2016 Share Posted August 28, 2016 4 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: It can stay above normal for now as long as it flips in late November and stays that way for a few months Yes, true. Just hope the 95+ degree weather doesn't come after what we've had for an extended period. I'll now leave it to the analysts though as not to go too much into banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 Looks like a shot at some 40's for lows in the NW area this weekend. Euro now delays the warmth until after Labor Day. The Thursday-Monday look absolutely amazing. After Labor Day the war returns and the torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 17 hours ago, Allsnow said: Looks like a shot at some 40's for lows in the NW area this weekend. Euro now delays the warmth until after Labor Day. The Thursday-Monday look absolutely amazing. After Labor Day the war returns and the torch. Still looks like about 3-4 days of 90 degree plus temps around Labor Day - then drops to the 80s with maybe no more 90s until next spring/summer. But it doesn't look like a quick decline into autumn with still above normal temps through day 16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 5 minutes ago, mattinpa said: Still looks like about 3-4 days of 90 degree plus temps around Labor Day - then drops to the 80s with maybe no more 90s until next spring/summer. But it doesn't look like a quick decline into autumn with still above normal temps through day 16. Weeklies are a torch the entire month. +5 after week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Weeklies are a torch the entire month. +5 after week 1 Averages are dropping by that time though; harder to get 90s. Something to keep an eye on though - we'll see if they change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 6 minutes ago, mattinpa said: Averages are dropping by that time though; harder to get 90s. Something to keep an eye on though - we'll see if they change. Exactly. IMBY the average high goes from 77 at the beginning down to 75 at the end of the second week of September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 CFS for Sept.: 9/01 AN, 9/02-04 BN, 9/05-14 AN, 9/15-21 BN, 9/22-26 AN, last days are near normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 1 minute ago, bluewave said: The record heat of August relaxes for the first week of September as Canadian high pressure dominates with northerly and then easterly flow. Yeah this upcoming weekend will feel amazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 1 hour ago, dmillz25 said: Yeah this upcoming weekend will feel amazing Classic September weather. 70s and sunny, with some areas getting down into the 50s for a few nights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 8 minutes ago, IntenseBlizzard2014 said: I don't see minimum temperatures in the 50s for the surrounding areas. More like low to mid 60s from the 06Z GFS. That map clearly shows low temps in the 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 Just now, IntenseBlizzard2014 said: Hardly. I see the oranges overlapping at the GWB. Definitely NNJ, but not the NYC surrounding areas. Sent from my ZTE A2017U using Tapatalk Uhh, nnj IS "surrounding areas". so is westchester, where that gfs shows a low of 55 on saturday morning at hpn. It even has newark in the 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 Jesus christ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 1 hour ago, BxEngine said: Uhh, nnj IS "surrounding areas". so is westchester, where that gfs shows a low of 55 on saturday morning at hpn. It even has newark in the 50s. I agree. That's why I originally said some areas, and by that I meant Northern and Northwestern NJ. My forecast is for lows in the 50s, which means that far Western Jersey and the valleys will get there no problem. Just to compare, here's my NWS forecast: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 The rip and read from the weather app is classic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 1 hour ago, BxEngine said: Jesus christ. Just quietly walk away, its all you can do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 I guess my definition of surrounding areas is different from everyone else's. Sorry I brought this up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 On 8/27/2016 at 2:46 PM, IrishRob17 said: So we are in agreement on the loss of sunlight? All joking aside, nice work, as always and we are in agreement. Especially as I sweat sitting out in my yard today. Thanks Rob. Yes; that's one prediction that has a 100% probability of verifying! Still looks above normal for the foreseeable future, but once again, we have surface features contradicting what the mid levels would imply in terms of outcomes. Geopotential heights will generally rise to 588-94dm for much of the period Labor Day week, but because sfc high pressure might be located in an unfavorable position for heat (to our northeast), the resultant temperatures will be more muted. So above normal with modest dew points, but it doesn't appear that we'll be looking at 90F+ right now, unless modelling alters the placement of sfc features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 Our weekend cooldown looks to still feature at or above average temps .FRIDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. .SATURDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. .SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. .SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. . SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. .LABOR DAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. .MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. .TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 10 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Our weekend cooldown looks to still feature at or above average temps .FRIDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. .SATURDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. .SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. .SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. . SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. .LABOR DAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. .MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. .TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. Seems on the high side to me...certainly don't see any models showing mid 80's for Friday. More like near 80 for highs and near 60 for lows for Fri-Sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 3 hours ago, doncat said: Seems on the high side to me...certainly don't see any models showing mid 80's for Friday. More like near 80 for highs and near 60 for lows for Fri-Sun. Yeah...not too bad . Thursday Night A 20 percent chance of showers before midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 68. Northwest wind 7 to 9 mph. Friday Sunny, with a high near 84. Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 65. Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 80. Saturday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 66. Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 79. Sunday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 67. Labor Day Mostly sunny, with a high near 81. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Euripides Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 What is that stuff falling from the sky this morning? Hope Monday turns out to be a soaker for everyone as it is needed although it stinks that it is on a holiday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 .41 for today and it looks to be over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 1 minute ago, winterwarlock said: .41 for today and it looks to be over Positive bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Very heavy downpour at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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