wxmx Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 In any case, like Superstorm93 already said, this TD is a mess currently and is undergoing structure overhauling. It's very probable a relocation will be needed after this do-over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 4 minutes ago, Morris said: Recon is back to the original LLC. 1002.6 low there so far. Yeah, and is now in a SW dive, probably interacting with the other LLC, pinwheeling around a pivot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 10 minutes ago, Morris said: Recon is back to the original LLC. 1002.6 low there so far. 1002.1 was the minimum on the last pass on the old LLC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: Recon just finished up. Nice little convective burst taking place right now. So whats the saying on a possible new LLC from recon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dizzy9479 Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 When are they heading out again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 FWIW - just what I'm picking up from elsewhere: 18Z GFS has TD#9 as a Tropical Storm hitting the big Bend on early Friday morning18Z HWRF has a category 2 hurricane (968 mb) with a landfall just north of Cedar Key.. Thursday morning.18Z GFDL: Category 1 hurricane with a landfall also just north of Cedar Key midday Thursday. Source: Forums at http://flhurricane.com/ Not suggesting any agreement - just saying that some models don't like us down here and that is in and of itself, disconcerting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 59 minutes ago, Morris said: 1002.1 was the minimum on the last pass on the old LLC. Caveat from Levi Cowan: They ascended to ~10,000ft so the extrapolated pressures got a bit lower than they actually are. Probably ~5mb too low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 this continued W to SW'ward drift seems odd. maybe a new center is trying to form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 Next takeoff is 2 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 that ASCAT pass is almost 12 hours old Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: You sure? That was taken at 1:02 UTC. It's 2:30 now. Towards the bottom "Data buffer is 22hrs from Aug 30 01:02 UTC 2016"... does that mean the data is 22hrs old? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 Looking at the satellite and other things, it's clearly moving WSW now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 GFS still yells "hell no!" Still has 1007 minimum pressure (above what it's actually now) at hour 60. Not even a TS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 That's the same image. The pass time is the purple one at the bottom 14:56. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 12 minutes ago, Morris said: GFS still yells "hell no!" Still has 1007 minimum pressure (above what it's actually now) at hour 60. Not even a TS. Finally a weak TS at landfall at 66 in the panhandle. Same pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: That's really helpful, I appreciate it. Do you know why the times at the top are so different? Is it just the delay in relaying data? At every pass all images are regenerated in that site. Which is around every hour. That's the image generation time. BTW, ASCAT just did the ascending pass near TD 9, but missed it. We'll have to wait around 12 hours for another try. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 whoever said the GOM would be favorable this season failed. GOM dead for years now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 Convection increased now and it's the diurnal minimum. Recon found it just short of TS status. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 it already has a lower pressure than most models at about 1004- lower than the GFS and Euro. Very deep convection south of the center. Euro has a decent TS at landfall, HWRF a hurricane. GFDL a weaker TS. So I think the consensus says the GFS is probably too weak. NHC's forecast looks as good as anything IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 For giggles. 4km NAM has a borderline cat 3 hurricane at hour 60 before landfall in the panhandle. 938 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 According to our local TV Met it looks like the latest recon found some 40+ mph winds. Don't have time to check the HH obs to see if this was FL or surface. Any one want to chime in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 Dry air to the West and North is going to continue to choke this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 As I watch the water vapor loop above I can't help but wonder.... is this late August or early June? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 It's only a small wedge of dry air...if anything the difference in air has ignited the convection. (kind of like how when a cold front approaches) It's been a benefit so far. and that wedge of dry is surrounded by 2 moisture laden lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 I was just going to say that I don't think that dry air looks terrible at all. In fact it looks to be somewhat eroding on the latest WV loop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 I'd be surprised if it doesn't strike the coast as a hurricane. these water temps should show more surprise strengthening the next 24 hours or so. (i'm practically dismissing the water vapor) the shear as it's nearing landfall, is the biggest issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 Looking at vis imagery this morning, the LLC is still mostly exposed on the northern edge of the convective blow-up. I'd say overall this thing is only marginally better organized than 24 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 12 minutes ago, WhiteoutWX said: Looking at vis imagery this morning, the LLC is still mostly exposed on the northern edge of the convective blow-up. I'd say overall this thing is only marginally better organized than 24 hours ago. Or its entire life span for that matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 Just for fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 3 hours ago, Cheeznado said: it already has a lower pressure than most models at about 1004- lower than the GFS and Euro. Very deep convection south of the center. Euro has a decent TS at landfall, HWRF a hurricane. GFDL a weaker TS. So I think the consensus says the GFS is probably too weak. NHC's forecast looks as good as anything IMO. Why wouldn't the HWRF be too strong and the others (including the GFS) be the consensus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.