Morris Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 HWRF finally backed off. Only a TS landfalling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 Please keep the BAM, NAM, HRRR models out of this discussion. They are almost useless against the usually trustworthy TV* member models (Euro, GFS, Ukmet, and to a lesser degree CMC, NOGAPS, HWRF, GFDL) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 Just now, Morris said: HWRF finally backed off. Only a TS landfalling. It keeps most of the convection East of the center while imposing southwesterly shear which sort of arrests development. I don't buy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 7 minutes ago, Morris said: HWRF finally backed off. Only a TS landfalling. Every day for the last week, the HWRF has backed off of any significant strengthening for another day. We now have a pretty good model consensus for TD9 not doing too much for the next day or two, then finally strengthening into a high end tropical storm or possibly low end cat 1 hurricane as it approaches the big bend region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 Keep in mind new moon is Thursday Sept 1st at 09z for possible storm surge enhancement at landfall. All things considered, I think the error is likely to be conservative (more development) and a cat-1 hurricane would be my preferred call at this point. I think they will find it's a 45 kt TS already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 20 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: Keep in mind new moon is Thursday Sept 1st at 09z for possible storm surge enhancement at landfall. All things considered, I think the error is likely to be conservative (more development) and a cat-1 hurricane would be my preferred call at this point. I think they will find it's a 45 kt TS already. Full and no moon frequently give a boost to low pressures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 997 at landfall in new Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 Tenman, I believe that's true statistically but the models presumably incorporate those trends within 3-4 days so I don't draw the conclusion necessarily that pressures will deviate from model predictions. (the signal does show up faintly in research) -- I was basing a stronger outcome mainly on the flat steering currents and warm SST field ahead of the storm. I think it will make landfall in NW Florida around the end of Thursday. There could be some minor issues for Tampa Bay as a result, especially if the storm intensifies more and if it happens to make a sharper turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 Is recon there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Is recon there? Almost http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 With this possibly becoming a tropical storm at 5pm ET and the new watch/warning standards starting at 48 hours...does anyone care to guess when we may see watches and warnings issued? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 Very weak pressure fall and winds near TD9's center on latest recon pass. Still sheared - not strengthening yet. https://t.co/oEisL2iNmw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 Center is around 23.8N 84.5W...near the NW edge of the convection. Winds are unimpressive so far, and below TS strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 Center isn't terribly impressive. Nothing to warrant any sudden changes in intensity for at least 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 Recon confirms that the circulations are still decoupled. LLC is now visible. Could be the case for the remainder of this systems lifetime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 at what level winds are they talking about? I see very favorable conditions for strengthening the next 24 to 48 hours. Quote Vertical shear should remain modest for the next couple of days, but begin to increase around 72 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 1 hour ago, Morris said: 997 at landfall in new Euro. a far cry from late last week when it had it at 945 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 TD9 is running north. NEXT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 Yep, center becoming exposed. Had some promise this morning, but it's given it all back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 13 minutes ago, csnavywx said: Yep, center becoming exposed. Had some promise this morning, but it's given it all back. The little engine that won't..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 29, 2016 Author Share Posted August 29, 2016 8 minutes ago, csnavywx said: Yep, center becoming exposed. Had some promise this morning, but it's given it all back. I wouldn't say given it "all back"....certainly it was better 12 hours ago....but that convective burst near the center, may have kept the surface circulation a bit tighter and circular, surface structure being already in place is a large positive regarding a quicker deepening of pressure....so if/when the shear abates a bit (which I think it will do over the next 24 hours) this could ramp up in a stout fashion....before the shear and some dry air come back as it approaches FL Panhandle....still think this has a shot at a very minimal cane.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 52 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: TD9 is running north. NEXT. Maybe the lows are trying to connect. That might give a visual of a north movement (???). I see nothing from the Hurricane Center to suggest a north movement - or am I missing something (not beyond doing that on a Monday, I assure you!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 It seems to be getting that "S" look now on satellite. It appears the center is under the convection again too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tater Tot Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 1 minute ago, CoastalBecs said: It seems to be getting that "S" look now on satellite. It appears the center is under the convection again too. I can't wait for it to troll us for the billionth time and fall apart! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 Its name shluld be troll. But am I wrong in seeing that? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/09L/html5-vis-long.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 There clearly looks to be a disconnect ( lol all life long) between the mid level low and the surface low that looks exposed to me north of the convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 Just looking at the vis. loop the LLC seems way north of convection. Then looking again I noticed another spin in the mid levels way south along the western tip of Cuba. Wonder is a new center could form well south of where the models have it, down in that southern convection. That would change the eventual track quite a bit. Very frustrating system, should just turn the computer off for a day or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 1 minute ago, wxeyeNH said: Just looking at the vis. loop the LLC seems way north of convection. Then looking again I noticed another spin in the mid levels way south along the western tip of Cuba. Wonder is a new center could form well south of where the models have it, down in that southern convection. That would change the eventual track quite a bit. Very frustrating system, should just turn the computer off for a day or so. http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=goes-west_goes-east/goes-14_1_minute_visible_sector_03&width=1020&height=720&number_of_images_to_display=60&loop_speed_ms=80 This loops shows both the features of the naked swirl and the mid level spin you mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 9 minutes ago, Inudaw said: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=goes-west_goes-east/goes-14_1_minute_visible_sector_03&width=1020&height=720&number_of_images_to_display=60&loop_speed_ms=80 This loops shows both the features of the naked swirl and the mid level spin you mentioned. This loop tells a different story. Its over unless a new LLC forms further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 So much for the king lol GFS nailed this one. Kudos to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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