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Hermine

LakeEffectKing

By LakeEffectKing,
in Tropical Headquarters

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SN_Lover

SN_Lover

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, yoda said:

Uh huh, looks like the usual overdone HWRF... near major hurricane in 84 hrs?  I don't think so

I would agree with you, however the area the area of circulation goes over is extremely warm. for the next 24-36 hours, the system will cross over some very shallow warm waters, after that, it will cross into very deep warm waters. This model is picking up on a possible RI, and if that happens, this solution is likely conceivable. Wouldn't dog this solution just yet, but as i said before the system is extremely disorganized and just getting organization will take some time, and time is something this system does not have. 

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Tibet

Tibet

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, yoda said:

Uh huh, looks like the usual overdone HWRF... near major hurricane in 84 hrs?  I don't think so

Upon entering the Straits of Florida on September 20, Rita strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane by 1200 UTC,[9] while maintaining a minimum barometric pressure of 985 mbar (hPa; 29.09 inHg). Six hours later, Rita intensified further into a Category 2 hurricane before subsequently passing approximately 45 mi (75 km) south of Key West, Florida.[2] Aided by a favorable outflow pattern and anomalously warm sea surface temperatures  (SSTs), the trend of rapid intensification continued,[9] and Rita reached Category 3 hurricane status upon entering the Gulf of Mexico by 0600 UTC on September 21, making it a major hurricane.[2][8]

Once in the Gulf of Mexico, Rita passed over the extremely warm Loop Current during the midday hours of September 21, enabling continued strengthening. As a result, the hurricane's wind field significantly expanded and the storm's barometric pressure quickly fell.[2] By 1800 UTC that day, Rita attained Category 5 hurricane intensity,[10]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Rita

-------------------------------------------------------

12  UTC Sept 20 as a CAT 1 -> 18 UTC Sept 21 CAT 5

-------------------------------------------------------

Compare TD9's path to Rita's

 

RITA:

Rita_2005_track.png

 

 

TD9's Current Location / Projected Path:

Cq_I3IZW8AAJdyW.jpg

 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

People should be extremely concerned by this storm given historical activity.

 

 

 

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Tater Tot

Tater Tot

Posted
Posted
54 minutes ago, Tibet said:

Upon entering the Straits of Florida on September 20, Rita strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane by 1200 UTC,[9] while maintaining a minimum barometric pressure of 985 mbar (hPa; 29.09 inHg). Six hours later, Rita intensified further into a Category 2 hurricane before subsequently passing approximately 45 mi (75 km) south of Key West, Florida.[2] Aided by a favorable outflow pattern and anomalously warm sea surface temperatures  (SSTs), the trend of rapid intensification continued,[9] and Rita reached Category 3 hurricane status upon entering the Gulf of Mexico by 0600 UTC on September 21, making it a major hurricane.[2][8]

Once in the Gulf of Mexico, Rita passed over the extremely warm Loop Current during the midday hours of September 21, enabling continued strengthening. As a result, the hurricane's wind field significantly expanded and the storm's barometric pressure quickly fell.[2] By 1800 UTC that day, Rita attained Category 5 hurricane intensity,[10]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Rita

-------------------------------------------------------

12  UTC Sept 20 as a CAT 1 -> 18 UTC Sept 21 CAT 5

-------------------------------------------------------

Compare TD9's path to Rita's

 

RITA:

Rita_2005_track.png

 

 

TD9's Current Location / Projected Path:

Cq_I3IZW8AAJdyW.jpg

 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

People should be extremely concerned by this storm given historical activity.

 

 

 

Rita was in the open gulf, though. Most of the models seem to be suggesting that this will have much less time to strengthen before another landfall. Plus, Rita was already an organizing hurricane by the time it was able to start bombing out, and given its track record, we'll still be waiting for this one to even get a name. :lol:

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the ghost of leroy

the ghost of leroy

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, wxmx said:

More like it continued it's SW trek. Surface observation from MUHA and radar shows it moved inland just west of Havana and it's trying to go to the Caribbean. At least shear is lower there :P

you know what came out of the caribbean?  wilma.  best storm ever.  it hit florida too.  kinda eerie when you think about it.

 

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Tibet

Tibet

Posted
Posted
40 minutes ago, Tater Tot said:

Rita was in the open gulf, though. Most of the models seem to be suggesting that this will have much less time to strengthen before another landfall. Plus, Rita was already an organizing hurricane by the time it was able to start bombing out, and given its track record, we'll still be waiting for this one to even get a name. :lol:

 

30 minutes ago, larrye said:

For those of you hugging the HWRF or thinking that this is a Rita analogue, here is an interesting post from the Mid-Atlantic forum:

 

 

 

Both very good points, quick google-fu and the THCP for Rita was vastly superior.

 

RITA:

 

PIA06342_modest.jpg

 

 

VS current TCHP:

 

2016240at.jpg

 

 

That definitely bodes well for FL!

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

11pm disco part re strength 

Strong vertical shear that has been plaguing this system for the
past week is expected to gradually subside to less than 10 kt in
18-24 hours, which should allow for more organized deep convection
to develop. However, the southerly low-level inflow will still be
disrupted by the terrain of western Cuba until the cyclone moves
west of 85W longitude, which will then provide a straight trajectory
across the Yucatan Channel and into the low-level center. By 36
hours and beyond, the depression will moving over SSTs greater
than 30C and the light vertical wind shear is expected to back
around from a northerly to a southwesterly direction, which usually
favors more significant intensification. However, dry air in the
mid-/upper-levels noted in the recent 0000 UTC soundings from Key
West northward to the Gulf coast is expected be entrained into the
northwestern semicircle of the cyclone's circulation by 48 hours
and beyond, and this appears to be the main inhibiting factor to
strengthening by the global models. Given these mixed signals, the
NHC intensity forecast remains conservative and closely follows the
intensity model IVCN. The confidence in the intensity forecast
remains lower than usual for this system.

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jojo762

jojo762

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Morris said:

The GFS is still consistent. Says hell no.

Honestly, when was the last time the GFS was this consistent, and this on target for a tropical wave/storm? Likely is being a little too bearish now though. Seems reasonable to assess that this will briefly achieve hurricane status near the FL coast later on, and if it is not a hurricane by then, it almost definitely figures to be a strong tropical storm. But, I am a bit concerned by the effect that the dual upper-level lows (one near TX/LA coast, and the other off the coast of SC) could have, models *could* be under-doing shear (they already have been off the last few days.)

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hawkeye_wx

hawkeye_wx

Posted
Posted

It's no surprise models aren't doing much with this.  Just take a look at the water vapor loop.  The big upper low to the northeast and the big upper low to the nw have squeezed the eastern gulf upper ridge into nothing.  TD9 is going to have about five minutes of favorable upper level wind later today/tonight.  Just as it begins to get its act together, more shear and dry air will move in from the west.  We're at the peak of the hurricane season and the western Atlantic is being shredded by upper lows.  New season, same story.

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csnavywx

csnavywx

Posted
Posted

Much better over just the last few hours. LLC has disappeared under the north side of a convective burst and looks to be hanging just off the coast of Cuba. Shear looks to be slacking off. We could be looking at a vertically stacked system by this evening if it keeps going, albeit a bit further south than most model guidance has it.

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NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
Posted

Latest update supports an upgrade to TS status at 11AM, although they will probably wait for recon. Not sure when recon is expected to be there. 

2016AUG29 124500  2.5 1003.9  35.0  2.5 2.5 2.5  NO LIMIT  OFF  OFF   18.64 -21.29  SHEAR    N/A   -7.0   23.59   84.37  FCST   GOES13 29.5 
2016AUG29 131500  2.5 1003.9  35.0  2.4 2.3 2.3  NO LIMIT   ON  OFF  -19.16 -32.50  CRVBND   N/A   -7.0   23.59   84.17  FCST   GOES13 29.4
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