OSUmetstud Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 4 minutes ago, wxmx said: AF recon found 86FL Doesn't that only support 65 kt sfc reduced from 850mb? That's where they're flying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 3 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Doesn't that only support 65 kt sfc reduced from 850mb? That's where they're flying. Isn't it 80% reduction...that's 69 kts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Thought a 90% reduction was better on a rapidly strengthening system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 983mb from AF center fix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 23 minutes ago, pcbjr said: so many roads but they all lead up to today, just like any other day that's ever been appreciate the thought Just now the wind came squalling through the door now back to the storm someone's got some good whiskey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Eye closing off on radar and shrinking. Sat presentation got better -- fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 2 minutes ago, csnavywx said: Thought a 90% reduction was better on a rapidly strengthening system. Yeah, but we have SFMR, and so far, 70kts is the highest surface wind measured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 2 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said: someone's got some good whiskey. no. just a storm to watch, that's buzz enough. and some good music to do it with until the power goes out ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 80mph on the 8pm Maybe a shot at 90 before landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 3 minutes ago, csnavywx said: Thought a 90% reduction was better on a rapidly strengthening system. from 850mb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 From 8pm public advisory: Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). NOAA buoy 42036 recently reported sustained winds of 58 mph (94 km/h) and a wind gust of 78 mph (126 km/h). The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 983 mb (29.03 inches). NOAA buoy 42036 recently reported a pressure of 989.4 mb (29.22 inches). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 4 minutes ago, wxmx said: Isn't it 80% reduction...that's 69 kts Well that agrees with SFMR anyway lol. I was just kinda generally commenting that the flight levels sound better than usual because it's from 850 not the usual 700. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 are all NOAA sites slow for anyone else, SPC, and esp. NHC will not load for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Just now, NWLinnCountyIA said: are all NOAA sites slow for anyone else, SPC, and esp. NHC will not load for me. fine for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 6 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: are all NOAA sites slow for anyone else, SPC, and esp. NHC will not load for me. I'm getting the same, may just be the much higher than normal demand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 New sonde in the heaviest band Not sure if this works... Quote 990mb (Surface) 190° (from the S) 62 knots (71 mph) 989mb 190° (from the S) 63 knots (72 mph) 984mb 195° (from the SSW) 82 knots (94 mph) 980mb 200° (from the SSW) 87 knots (100 mph) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Gust or sustained? if that's sustained, we got ourselves a Cat 2. And you said this was a dropsonde? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 1 minute ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: Gust or sustained? if that's sustained, we got ourselves a Cat 2. And you said this was a dropsonde? Sonde from 11 minutes ago. Splashed in maximum wind band. http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi?basin=al&year=2016&storm=Hermine&mission=14&agency=AF&product=sonde&latest=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 2 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: Gust or sustained? if that's sustained, we got ourselves a Cat 2. And you said this was a dropsonde? Thats above the surface at 980 mb, the wind at the surface was 71 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 5 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said: New sonde in the heaviest band Not sure if this works... That's not a surface wind; that was recorded where the air pressure on the dropsonde's way down was 980 mb (up in the air a few dozen meters). This does, however, point out something I've been noticing with these dropsondes that have been coming in. It seems like there's some very sharp gradients in wind speed right above the surface. These higher wind speeds are almost making it to the surface, and if they manage to do so in the time that Hermine has left off land... The intensity and impact of this storm could be much different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 1 minute ago, downeastnc said: Thats above the surface at 980 mb, the wind at the surface was 71 Thank you, I misinterpreted the height to be the surface pressure :/ EDIT: I now see the word surface in parenthesis, ............................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 This is running out of time to strengthen, so significant structure damage is not likely, however people need to be aware that since it is strengthening up to landfall winds will probably mix down better. Also probably be significant tree damage/outages since its been a long time since a hurricane made landfall in this area. Also hope surge doesn't get people off guard. Large shelf fetch+shape of coastline make that area very vulnerable to surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 3 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Thats above the surface at 980 mb, the wind at the surface was 71 Which is essentially just above the surface now. Didn't say they were AT the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 3 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: Thank you, I misinterpreted the height to be the surface pressure :/ EDIT: I now see the word surface in parenthesis, ............................ If I am understanding right and this online calc isn't a load of **** that is ~300ft alt... still something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 amazing if this gets into the 970's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 7 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said: Which is essentially just above the surface now. Didn't say they were AT the surface. I think it just hit its stride to late, 12 hrs ago it didnt have a very well organized wind field really...so its doing that now but it takes time and thats why we are seeing such a difference between FL and surface winds...although it is getting better especially to the SE side....the N and W side though still look pretty meh on surface winds mostly 40-50 mph stuff, this might spare Tallahassee the worst., maybe....the worst will be at and east of the center for sure.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 There isn't a particularly strong detachment between flight level and just above boundary layer winds with the sfc. This is about typical for a hurricane. The strongest winds are usually located at about 500 meters agl and are significantly stronger than sfc winds. 850mb flight level winds are 20% higher than sfc winds etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 lightning just popped up near the eyewall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Both recon missions haven't updated in a while. Might be having comms issues. RAW ADT up to 5.9 lol Quote Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 2.8 3.2 5.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 7 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said: Both recon missions haven't updated in a while. Might be having comms issues. RAW ADT up to 5.9 lol Seems to me that the NOAA one went home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.