wxmx Posted August 27, 2016 Share Posted August 27, 2016 Finally some organization. Latest convection has forced a potential LLC underneath it, as seen on visible imagery, very close to Cuba's northern coast, where shear is bearable. If it can manage avoiding much land interaction, we can see some slow but steady organization in the next couple of days. Afterwards, much better conditions may be available in the E GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted August 27, 2016 Share Posted August 27, 2016 Just now, wxmx said: Finally some organization. Latest convection has forced a potential LLC underneath it, very close to Cuba's northern coast, where shear is bearable. If it can manage avoiding much land interaction, we can see some slow but steady organization in the next couple of days. Afterwards, much better conditions may be available in the E GOM. look at you breathing some hope into the conversation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 27, 2016 Share Posted August 27, 2016 11 minutes ago, cmasty1978 said: look at you breathing some hope into the conversation Ha, gathered all my strength to go against all models and find a silver lining. I certainly don't expect much out of it still, but have some (tiny) hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 27, 2016 Share Posted August 27, 2016 Yes, there is at least something to watch this morning as 99L is not total garbage. As wxmx said, there is a definite drop in shear and dry air from north to south across the wave and deep convection is at least attempting to congeal in the vicinity of the broad surface spin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 27, 2016 Author Share Posted August 27, 2016 If I had to wager even money, I'd say we will have a cane in the E GOM in 3-4 days.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted August 27, 2016 Share Posted August 27, 2016 Latest Euro run seems to be coming in slightly further west and stronger? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted August 27, 2016 Share Posted August 27, 2016 It actually allot further west... Into Central Gulf of Mexico by 96 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 27, 2016 Share Posted August 27, 2016 14 minutes ago, Tibet said: Latest Euro run seems to be coming in slightly further west and stronger? It sure is. This run, the euro is keeping the energy more consolidated and farther south near Havana. Then, instead of getting stretched out and pulled up the Florida peninsula by the upper low associated with 91L, as the last two runs showed, it remains focused and heads west into the central gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted August 27, 2016 Share Posted August 27, 2016 Well that is a definite change for this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 27, 2016 Share Posted August 27, 2016 Looking at the vis loop 99L is looking good. However if you look at the latest IR the deep convection north of Cuba is weakening at the moment. Center seems to be pretty close to the N shore of Cuba. Wonder how much of an effect the island will have the next 12 hours. Looks to be heading west. That will put it further south into the Gulf with more time for intensification before the north curve. I guess the key will be how will the wave look as it moves west of Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted August 27, 2016 Share Posted August 27, 2016 Indirect land interaction via some frictional convergence on both sides of the circulation wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing at the moment. It definitely needs some more strong convective bursts to spin up another mid-level circulation and align it with the low level vort. The negative is if the strong diurnal convection over Cuba manages to tug the LLC too far south and bring it over land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGuide Posted August 27, 2016 Share Posted August 27, 2016 5 minutes ago, csnavywx said: Indirect land interaction via some frictional convergence on both sides of the circulation wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing at the moment. It definitely needs some more strong convective bursts to spin up another mid-level circulation and align it with the low level vort. The negative is if the strong diurnal convection over Cuba manages to tug the LLC too far south and bring it over land. I thought it was just me that was spotting a potential circulation off the Cuban coast. What worries me is that it looks like that's heading for land later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted August 27, 2016 Share Posted August 27, 2016 Recent ship ob just off the coast of Cuba near the apparent LLC reported winds 290 at 10kt, so there does indeed appear to be a closed circulation now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 27, 2016 Share Posted August 27, 2016 This is probably going to impact TX, LA, or Mexico. Beta models are hitting TX, so should be at or south of there with LA being the margin if error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted August 27, 2016 Share Posted August 27, 2016 99L is really starting to look real - like a cyclone. Circulation is right on the coast of Cuba it appears. Can it shoot the channel perfectly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tater Tot Posted August 27, 2016 Share Posted August 27, 2016 It's getting a decent curve to it now, at least. Hot towers started popping up around 19:15 UTC (still have no idea what time that is converted ). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 27, 2016 Share Posted August 27, 2016 It does seem to have better outflow and curvature but when you look at the latest IR image the cloud tops over the apparent circulation they are really warming. We need new convection to start forming. I see some on the 2045 UTC NW of the center but really would like to see many more going up as the sunsets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted August 27, 2016 Share Posted August 27, 2016 'Canes are fun to watch until you're in one. And then one has to deal with the aftermath in 90+º weather. With no A/C. And likely no clean water. For days. Please keep this in mind if you wish for something to form and go somewhere on someone! 'Canes do not melt like a southeast snow - here today, gone tomorrow, pleasant memory, with a few nice pictures .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 27, 2016 Share Posted August 27, 2016 18z GFS more Euro like. Weaker however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 27, 2016 Share Posted August 27, 2016 18 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: 18z GFS more Euro like. Weaker however. GFS nearly stalls it out and eventually makes landfall near Big Bend and never develops it in the GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoastHurricane Posted August 27, 2016 Share Posted August 27, 2016 Some flooding on the 18z GFS in the Big Bend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 27, 2016 Share Posted August 27, 2016 It appears the nw shear is really coming down on this thing this evening after the southern part of the system got a bit of a reprieve this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted August 28, 2016 Share Posted August 28, 2016 Bump. After battling wind shear and somewhat persistent thunderstorms near the perceived mid-level center overnight, the Hurricane Hunters are flying into 99L this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted August 28, 2016 Share Posted August 28, 2016 Still a lot of shear but it seems to at least be holding its own with persistent convection firing to the E/SE of the apparent "center". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGuide Posted August 28, 2016 Share Posted August 28, 2016 Still don't think it's anywhere close to a TD until at least Monday at the earliest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 28, 2016 Share Posted August 28, 2016 Looks like the LLC is just SE of Key West moving West or slightly WSW. From this point on its less and less land interaction as it heads into the open gulf. All convection is to the east right now. Edit: As of 130pm east time convection has made it to the LLC and is firing over it now. Assuming this trend continues strengthening could begin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted August 28, 2016 Share Posted August 28, 2016 2PM Outlook Update 60/80 1. Shower and thunderstorm activity has begun to increase near and to the east of a weak area of low pressure located just south of the lower Florida Keys. The low is expected to move westward into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday, where environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next few days. This system is then expected to move slowly northward and northeastward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico later this week. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely to continue over portions of the northwestern Bahamas, central and western Cuba, the Florida Keys and portions of southern Florida through Monday. Interests elsewhere in Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of this disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 28, 2016 Share Posted August 28, 2016 The king is dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 28, 2016 Share Posted August 28, 2016 6 minutes ago, Morris said: The king is dead. Has nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 28, 2016 Share Posted August 28, 2016 It is ironic that the 2pm NHC update increases the odds substantially for development and at the same time the bullish Euro comes out and for the first time doesn't develop it at all. I wonder how much weight the models put in how it looks at initiation? Convection is finally over the center and if the LLC can clear Cuba you would think it would develop? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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