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Hermine

LakeEffectKing

By LakeEffectKing,
in Tropical Headquarters

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Windspeed

Windspeed

Posted
Posted

The transformation of this system in the past six hours is really impressive. Also, until the core punches inland, you cannot rule out a Cat 2. With intense convection going up in the eyewall right now and the core looking ever more symmetrical, clearly the pressure will likely continue falling through landfall. The next recon prior to landfall could very well find 95+ SFMR windspeeds in the eastern eyewall.

Sent from my LG G4.


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RubiksDestroyer

RubiksDestroyer

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, downeastnc said:

This is more up to date than the Google Earth one

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

Yes, I've been using Tropicaltidbits. It just wasn't updating a bit earlier, but it looks like it finally did. Seems to be around a 983 mb, though probably about 1-2 mb higher due to inaccuracies in extrapolation.

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Sophisticated Skeptic

Sophisticated Skeptic

Posted
Posted

hurricane statement just issued..  all the way up to new jersey.

tropical storm watch already issued for NJ as well

  

THIS PRODUCT COVERS NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE...SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHEAST MARYLAND. 
 
**HERMINE TO AFFECT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND** 
NEW INFORMATION 
--------------- 
 
* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS: 
- NONE 
 
* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS: 
- A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND 
SUSSEX...DELAWARE BEACHES...WESTERN MONMOUTH...EASTERN 
MONMOUTH...OCEAN...ATLANTIC...CAPE MAY...ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE 
MAY...COASTAL ATLANTIC...COASTAL OCEAN AND SOUTHEASTERN 
BURLINGTON 
 
* STORM INFORMATION: 
- ABOUT 960 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ATLANTIC CITY NJ OR ABOUT 910 
MILES SOUTHWEST OF DOVER DE 
- 28.5N 85.0W 
- STORM INTENSITY 75 MPH 
- MOVEMENT NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 14 MPH 
SITUATION OVERVIEW 
------------------ 
HERMINE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE NOW LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST 
GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE 
LANDFALL LATE TONIGHT IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND THEN ACCELERATE 
NORTHEASTWARD AS A TROPICAL STORM, MOVING OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS 
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HERMINE IS THEN FORECAST TO CONTINUE NORTHEAST 
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST, BUT WILL LIKELY SLOW DOWN OR POSSIBLY EVEN 
STALL OFF THE COAST LATER ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID- 
ATLANTIC COAST INCLUDING SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND COASTAL NEW JERSEY FROM 
CAPE MAY TO SANDY HOOK. THIS WATCH ALSO INCLUDES COASTAL WATERS AND 
THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE 
POSSIBLE OVER IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS INCLUDING COASTAL WATERS AND THE 
LOWER BAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE FARTHER INLAND. 
HAZARDOUS SEAS AND DANGEROUSLY ROUGH SURF CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY 
THROUGH SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY. A MODERATE TO HIGH RIP 
CURRENT RISK WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL BEACHES SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST 
SUNDAY. MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AROUND THE 
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE FROM LATE SATURDAY ONWARD. TWO OR MORE INCHES OF 
RAIN ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR, WHICH MAY 
CAUSE FLOODING. 
POTENTIAL IMPACTS 
----------------- 
 
* FLOODING RAIN: 
PREPARE FOR LOCALLY HAZARDOUS RAINFALL FLOODING HAVING POSSIBLE 
LIMITED IMPACTS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. POTENTIAL 
IMPACTS INCLUDE: 
- LOCALIZED RAINFALL FLOODING MAY PROMPT A FEW EVACUATIONS. 
- RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES MAY QUICKLY RISE WITH SWIFTER CURRENTS. 
SMALL STREAMS, CREEKS, CANALS, AND DITCHES MAY BECOME SWOLLEN 
AND OVERFLOW IN SPOTS. 
- FLOOD WATERS CAN ENTER A FEW STRUCTURES, ESPECIALLY IN 
VULNERABLE SPOTS. RAPID PONDING OF WATER MAY OCCUR AT 
UNDERPASSES, LOW-LYING SPOTS, AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. SEVERAL 
STORM DRAINS AND RETENTION PONDS BECOME NEAR-FULL AND BEGIN TO 
OVERFLOW. SOME BRIEF ROAD AND BRIDGE CLOSURES ARE POSSIBLE. 
ELSEWHERE ACROSS NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE...SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA 
AND NORTHEAST MARYLAND., LITTLE TO NO IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED. 
 
* SURGE: 
PREPARE FOR LOCALLY HAZARDOUS SURGE HAVING POSSIBLE LIMITED IMPACTS 
ACROSS COASTAL LOCATIONS OR AREAS PRONE TO TIDAL FLOODING. POTENTIAL 
IMPACTS IN THIS AREA INCLUDE: 
- LOCALIZED INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE WITH STORM SURGE FLOODING 
MAINLY ALONG IMMEDIATE SHORELINES AND IN LOW-LYING SPOTS, OR IN 
AREAS FARTHER INLAND NEAR WHERE HIGHER SURGE WATERS MOVE ASHORE. 
- SECTIONS OF NEAR-SHORE ROADS AND PARKING LOTS COULD BECOME 
OVERSPREAD WITH SURGE WATER. DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS ARE 
POSSIBLE IN PLACES WHERE SURGE WATER COVERS THE ROAD. 
- MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED. HEAVY SURF ALSO BREACHING 
DUNES, MAINLY IN USUALLY VULNERABLE LOCATIONS. STRONG RIP 
CURRENTS ARE ANTICIPATED. 
- MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE DAMAGE TO MARINAS, DOCKS, BOARDWALKS, 
AND PIERS IS POSSIBLE. A FEW SMALL CRAFT MAY BE BROKEN AWAY 
FROM MOORINGS. 
ELSEWHERE ACROSS NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE...SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA 
AND NORTHEAST MARYLAND., LITTLE TO NO IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED. 
 
* WIND: 
PREPARE FOR HAZARDOUS WIND HAVING POSSIBLE LIMITED IMPACTS ACROSS 
THE COASTAL PLAINS. POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE: 
- DAMAGE TO PORCHES, AWNINGS, CARPORTS, SHEDS, AND UNANCHORED 
MOBILE HOMES IS POSSIBLE. UNSECURED LIGHTWEIGHT OBJECTS COULD 
BE BLOWN AROUND. 
- MANY LARGE TREE LIMBS MAY BE BROKEN OFF. A FEW TREES COULD BE 
SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. SOME FENCES AND ROADWAY SIGNS MAY BE BLOWN 
OVER. 
- A FEW ROADS COULD BE IMPASSABLE FROM DEBRIS. HAZARDOUS DRIVING 
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON BRIDGES AND OTHER ELEVATED ROADWAYS. 
- SCATTERED POWER AND COMMUNICATIONS OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE. 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 
---------------------------------- 
 
* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION: 
NOW IS THE TIME TO CHECK YOUR EMERGENCY PLAN AND TAKE NECESSARY 
ACTIONS TO SECURE YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. ENSURE THAT YOUR EMERGENCY 
SUPPLIES KIT IS STOCKED AND READY. 
WHEN MAKING SAFETY AND PREPAREDNESS DECISIONS, DO NOT FOCUS ON THE 
EXACT FORECAST TRACK AS THERE ARE INHERENT FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES 
WHICH MUST BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT. 
IF YOU LIVE IN A PLACE PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE TO FLOODING, SUCH AS 
NEAR THE OCEAN, IN A LOW LYING OR POOR DRAINAGE AREA, IN A VALLEY, OR 
NEAR AN ALREADY SWOLLEN RIVER, PLAN TO MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER ON HIGHER 
GROUND 
VISITORS TO THE AREA SHOULD BECOME FAMILIAR WITH NEARBY SURROUNDINGS. 
IF YOU ARE A VISITOR, KNOW THE NAME OF THE COUNTY IN WHICH YOU ARE 
LOCATED AND WHERE IT IS RELATIVE TO CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS. IF 
STAYING AT A HOTEL, ASK THE MANAGEMENT STAFF ABOUT THEIR ON SITE 
DISASTER PLAN. LISTEN FOR EVACUATION ORDERS, ESPECIALLY PERTAINING TO 
AREA VISITORS. 
CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS FOR 
OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE 
FORECAST. 
 
* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION: 
- FOR INFORMATION ON APPROPRIATE PREPARATIONS SEE READY.GOV 
- FOR INFORMATION ON CREATING AN EMERGENCY PLAN SEE GETAGAMEPLAN.ORG 
- FOR ADDITIONAL DISASTER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION SEE REDCROSS.ORG 
NEXT UPDATE 
----------- 
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER 
SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ AROUND 11 PM EDT, OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS 
WARRANT.

 

 

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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, RubiksDestroyer said:

Yes, I've been using Tropicaltidbits. It just wasn't updating a bit earlier, but it looks like it finally did. Seems to be around a 983 mb, though probably about 1-2 mb higher due to inaccuracies in extrapolation.

Still not seeing the surface winds really reflect the Sat loops either....lots of 40-60 mph obs at the surface, not to many hurricane force ones yet, if it had had another 12 hrs or so it could have made Cat 2.....a lot of time though storms that are intensifying when the come in will continue to strengthen awhile after landfall....would not be surprised to see gust 70+ well inland in Florida and into GA....

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