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Hermine

LakeEffectKing

By LakeEffectKing,
in Tropical Headquarters

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Superstorm93

Superstorm93

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Shawn said:

What website was that image from?  I thought coolwx, but can't find the location if so.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ 

 

ECMWF stalls Hermine off of the Delmarva for a day or so. 

850's warm when it gets offshore, so it may develop tropical characteristics again. 

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Chinook

Chinook

Posted
Posted
Just now, Superstorm93 said:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ 

 

ECMWF stalls Hermine off of the Delmarva for a day or so. 

850's warm when it gets offshore, so it may develop tropical characteristics again. 

last night's 00z ECMWF had Hermine (or post-tropical Hermine) near the Delmarva for 4 days. That would be quite the wave action and beach erosion if it was 970mb for 4 days.

Now the center of Hermine can be estimated based off KTBW radar, about 150 nautical miles from downtown St. Petersburg.

vertical wind profiler at KTBW now shows 50kt at 3000-4000 ft above ground.

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ROOSTA

ROOSTA

Posted
Posted

I do believe there are some gusts in the 80-85mph range. Can see the coast now coming into view.

20160901_17z.png

 

Discrete cells now developing in front of initial feeder band. Reports of brief spin-ups. Have one screaming N headed directly for here.

It's like getting laid for the first time...let's get it on. LMFAO

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NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Chinook said:

last night's 00z ECMWF had Hermine (or post-tropical Hermine) near the Delmarva for 4 days. That would be quite the wave action and beach erosion if it was 970mb for 4 days.

Now the center of Hermine can be estimated based off KTBW radar, about 150 nautical miles from downtown St. Petersburg.

vertical wind profiler at KTBW now shows 50kt at 3000-4000 ft above ground.

The 12z Euro still has Hermine or what's left of her off the NJ coast next Thursday, as in a week from today.

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Tater Tot

Tater Tot

Posted
Posted
Just now, Shawn said:

 

 

An absolutely wonderful satellite imagery link I just was linked to -  http://climate.cod.edu/hanis/satellite/1km/index.php?type=Florida-vis-0-24 - you can loop it via the "loop" text under the "Auto-Refresh" text on the bottom of image.  I like the angle.  Feels like I can tell more about the movement.

Ooh, thanks for the link! It actually looks pretty good there.

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Superstorm93

Superstorm93

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, wxmx said:

Several 60+kts SFMR (up to 64kts) near the center with no rain contamination.

Yup. 

Could argue an upgrade. 

Quote

182430 2733N 08503W 8441 01459 9994 +174 +174 226065 069 061 012 00
182500 2733N 08504W 8423 01472 9989 +176 +176 228063 065 064 013 03
182530 2734N 08505W 8433 01457 9982 +178 +178 231065 066 063 016 03
182600 2735N 08506W 8419 01470 9977 +180 +180 233065 068 063 028 03
182630 2736N 08508W 8439 01447 9972 +182 +182 240059 062 063 027 03

 

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David Reimer

David Reimer

Posted
Posted

 

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 1st day of the month at 18:45Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5307
Storm Number & Year: 09 in 2016
Storm Name: Hermine (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 13
Observation Number: 12
A. Time of Center Fix: 1st day of the month at 18:36:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 28°03'N 85°25'W (28.05N 85.4167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 148 statute miles (238 km) to the S (174°) from Panama City, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,331m (4,367ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 61kts (~ 70.2mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 36 nautical miles (41 statute miles) to the SE (144°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 221° at 77kts (From the SW at ~ 88.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 39 nautical miles (45 statute miles) to the SE (143°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 988mb (29.18 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,514m (4,967ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 77kts (~ 88.6mph) which was observed 39 nautical miles (45 statute miles) to the SE (143°) from the flight level center at 18:23:30Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 305° at 3kts (From the NW at 3mph)
 

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wxmx

wxmx

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

What is the significance of rain contamination?

SMFR (Stepped Microwave Frequency Radiometer) senses high level microwaves emitted from the sea surface. If the sea surface is rough and foamy from high winds, more amounts of microwave energy are sent back to the aircraft. Rain can interfere with this microwaves, specially strong rain...in strong hurricanes the effect is negligible, but in weaker storms, it can be a bit more significant.

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NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
Posted 
000
WTNT64 KNHC 011854
TCUAT4

HURRICANE HERMINE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016
155 PM CDT THU SEP 01 2016

...DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
HERMINE HAS STRENGTHENED TO A HURRICANE...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds in Hermine have increased to near 75
mph (120 km/h).  Based on these data, Hermine is now upgraded to a
hurricane, the fourth hurricane of 2016 in the Atlantic basin.


SUMMARY OF 155 PM CDT...1855 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 85.4W
ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

$$

Forecaster Brennan/Pasch
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Eskimo Joe

Eskimo Joe

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, wxmx said:

SMFR (Stepped Microwave Frequency Radiometer) senses high level microwaves emitted from the sea surface. If the sea surface is rough and foamy from high winds, more amounts of microwave energy are sent back to the aircraft. Rain can interfere with this microwaves, specially strong rain...in strong hurricanes the effect is negligible, but in weaker storms, it can be a bit more significant.

Cool thanks.

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