NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 From Josh's FB around 4AM Eastern time this morning. Looks like he's headed to Florida for the chase. iCyclone 6 hrs · Thursday early morning (Florida USA): Tropical Storm HERMINE is strengthening as it crawls N across the Gulf of Mexico. It ain't exactly a work of art on satellite pics, but it's strengthening—and the National Hurricane Center expects HERMINE to be a hurricane when it whistles ashore on the Panhandle tonight. There's now a Hurricane WARNING from Suwanee River to Mexico Beach—a low-lying swath of coast prone to massive storm-surge flooding. I'm not convinced HERMINE is gonna be my kind of chase material, but I decided to go for it. It's been a real long time (four years) since I've chased a cyclone without a passport, and I miss it. And being the addict chaserdude that I am, it's hard to be still when I hear the words "Hurricane WARNING." Like a dog hearing a can-opener, I'm just gonna come running. No control. I'm sitting on a plane as I type this, chilling and mapping out my strategy. I'm thinking to head to Apalachicola and then refine my position as HERMINE edges closer. More later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Recon just getting to the Western side of the cyclone now. Not showing anything more than 10-20kt flight level winds so far. Latest pressure 1005.9mb well West of the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 The core is getting its act together really quick. http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E CONUS&lat=28&lon=-85&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5&mapcolor=yellow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 12 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Still eye wall open on south side, and no real convective blowup. convection is blowing up around the n side of the coc right now and working to wrap around. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/09L/flash-rbtop-long.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Huge blowup also now occurring right along the FL coast. Hermine is going to be a major rain maker on the Eastern side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 3 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: convection is blowing up around the n side of the coc right now and working to wrap around. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/09L/flash-rbtop-long.html Kind of reminds me more of what you would see with a storm nearing the Carolinas where the southern semi-circle was largely void of convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiogirl Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Hi everyone. I've been following this storm closely from Ohio because we are headed to Panama City Beach for vacation. These trends west are worrying me. We would be arriving there Saturday afternoon.......I have no idea if that's a good idea or not? I think it's pretty neat myself, but I have will have my 2 young boys with me Am I crazy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Certainly an uptick compared to 11-12Z in FL winds in the NW Quad as Teal 71 moves toward the center. 142200 2745N 08635W 8430 01508 0028 +170 +160 046040 040 032 006 00 142230 2743N 08634W 8429 01509 0026 +171 +161 039042 044 030 007 00 142300 2742N 08633W 8429 01509 0019 +181 +156 036044 045 032 003 00 142330 2740N 08632W 8427 01508 0010 +193 +146 030043 044 032 003 00 142400 2739N 08631W 8429 01504 0005 +195 +145 030042 043 035 004 00 142430 2737N 08630W 8436 01495 9999 +200 +148 034041 045 036 003 00 142500 2736N 08629W 8426 01497 0003 +183 +155 038043 045 035 006 00 142530 2734N 08628W 8436 01484 0001 +179 +158 040048 049 036 005 00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Recon approaching. Winds much stronger to the NW compared to the earlier NOAA recon flight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 3 minutes ago, Ohiogirl said: Hi everyone. I've been following this storm closely from Ohio because we are headed to Panama City Beach for vacation. These trends west are worrying me. We would be arriving there Saturday afternoon.......I have no idea if that's a good idea or not? I think it's pretty neat myself, but I have will have my 2 young boys with me Am I crazy? By Saturday Hermine is going to be somewhere near the Carolinas. And the worst of the weather will be to the North and East of the center. Panama City should be far enough West to avoid the worst of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 4 minutes ago, Ohiogirl said: Hi everyone. I've been following this storm closely from Ohio because we are headed to Panama City Beach for vacation. These trends west are worrying me. We would be arriving there Saturday afternoon.......I have no idea if that's a good idea or not? I think it's pretty neat myself, but I have will have my 2 young boys with me Am I crazy? According to the NHC track the storm will be well departed from that are by then. But if there's damage you could be looking at power outages etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 That's a pretty nasty looking outer-band starting to approach the coast http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=TLH&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 NOAA aircraft departing Tampa at 2 PM ET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 KTBW radar picking up on some strong winds in the banding closest to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiogirl Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Thanks for the replies! We've never been to that part of FL and my husband is giving me crap for picking that beach now, haha! This has been the craziest storm to watch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Well the inner core is certainly much tighter compared to a few hours ago. Next set of obs should give us a hint at the SE Quad winds and if SFMR values have started to increase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Compared to the previous recon flight, the center just moved a little due north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 55kts SFMR peak so far along with a flight level peak of 70kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Based on data received thus far it looks like the system has been relatively steady state over the last two hours. Pressure is at 991 millibars and flight-level winds haven't increased compared to earlier's flight. SFMR values continue to lag behind FL winds with nothing supporting anything above 65 MPH at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 NHC holds at 65 mph. Pressure 991 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 It's developing a nice comma-head Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 69FL/55SFMR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Starting to really get a classic look to it. You can see the band of strong convection about 2/3rds wrapped around the Western side of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Winds stronger this pass at 26N85W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 FL winds still in the middle to upper 60s but SFMR remain anemic with only 40s to lower 50s. Decent size wind field as well, perhaps explaining why surface winds have not shown a marked increase this morning. FWIW the HRRR shows 850s topping out around 100 knots at landfall tonight but surface winds remaining at 65-70 knots. SImilar to Ike in terms of a relatively high-impact storm surge versus lower wind values, although we're not talking about a strong Cat 2 cane with a Cat 4 (old scale) surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 11 minutes ago, David Reimer said: FL winds still in the middle to upper 60s but SFMR remain anemic with only 40s to lower 50s. Decent size wind field as well, perhaps explaining why surface winds have not shown a marked increase this morning. FWIW the HRRR shows 850s topping out around 100 knots at landfall tonight but surface winds remaining at 65-70 knots. SImilar to Ike in terms of a relatively high-impact storm surge versus lower wind values, although we're not talking about a strong Cat 2 cane with a Cat 4 (old scale) surge. David, I'm not a Met but do flow tropical weather. What are your thoughts as the storm gets up to the Carolinas. Some storms just weaken as they come north but others (Agnes comes to mind) strenghten with baroclitic energy and become hybrid noreasters. Assuming this storm hugs the coast will it maintain strenght or just steadily weaken? Really need the rain up here in New England if we can get it this far north before being blocked with the high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 18 minutes ago, David Reimer said: FL winds still in the middle to upper 60s but SFMR remain anemic with only 40s to lower 50s. Decent size wind field as well, perhaps explaining why surface winds have not shown a marked increase this morning. FWIW the HRRR shows 850s topping out around 100 knots at landfall tonight but surface winds remaining at 65-70 knots. SImilar to Ike in terms of a relatively high-impact storm surge versus lower wind values, although we're not talking about a strong Cat 2 cane with a Cat 4 (old scale) surge. next recon will come in during a better flareup. this one came in during the lull. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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