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Hermine

LakeEffectKing

By LakeEffectKing,
in Tropical Headquarters

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Sophisticated Skeptic

Sophisticated Skeptic

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Tibet said:

Welp... hope people have gone to the store by now... cause come TM morning they are going to be insane.

 

milk and bread...milk and bread.

All areas of Florida should be on-guard.  Since even Palmdale, FL (way inland) just received 4 to 5 inches of rain in the last few hours...from a very strong outer feeder band. 

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Jackstraw

Jackstraw

Posted
Posted
43 minutes ago, pcbjr said:

Agree.

Looks like the thing is decoupling. Like a double E waterfall all over our back.

Look for a while at the China Cat sunflower,
Proud walking jingle in the midnight sun.

 

I'm gonna have a hard time believing this thing makes landfall much west of Cedar Key.  I'd be keeping my eyes on it down to Sarasota.  Models be damned.

It's hard enough to gain
Any traction in the rain
You know it's hard
For me to understand ;)

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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Tibet said:

Welp... hope people have gone to the store by now... cause come TM morning they are going to be insane.

Meh it still looks like crap, all the wind is on the east side and it isn't showing any real signs of getting it together....also there will be no going insane over a borderline TS/weak cane...at least not in Florida....most people in the SE ( especially hurricane prone areas) are storm savvy and this isn't going to be a big deal outside of the heavy rain and flash flooding....I would worry about tornados too....I doubt anywhere gets sustained hurricane force winds on land and if it does happen it will be limited to immediate coastline just east of the center.....

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pcbjr

pcbjr

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

I'm gonna have a hard time believing this thing makes landfall much west of Cedar Key.  I'd be keeping my eyes on it down to Sarasota.  Models be damned.

It's hard enough to gain
Any traction in the rain
You know it's hard
For me to understand ;)

I know you rider and what you're saying.

Damn thing is gonna be a Hurricane and Cedar Key is my back door.

 

But the sun will shine in my back door, someday

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beanskip

beanskip

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Meh it still looks like crap, all the wind is on the east side and it isn't showing any real signs of getting it together....also there will be no going insane over a borderline TS/weak cane...at least not in Florida....most people in the SE ( especially hurricane prone areas) are storm savvy and this isn't going to be a big deal outside of the heavy rain and flash flooding....I would worry about tornados too....I doubt anywhere gets sustained hurricane force winds on land and if it does happen it will be limited to immediate coastline just east of the center.....

Have you ever been to Tallahassee? It is the most live oak-laden place you'll ever see -- and NONE of them are trimmed. The city prides itself on its "Canopy Roads" where trees literally form a soccer parents tunnel over the road (and power lines). A weak Cat 1 or even strong Tropical Storm will do plenty of damage here.

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pcbjr

pcbjr

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, beanskip said:

Have you ever been to Tallahassee? It is the most live oak-laden place you'll ever see -- and NONE of them are trimmed. The city prides itself on its "Canopy Roads" where trees literally form a soccer parents tunnel over the road (and power lines). A weak Cat 1 or even strong Tropical Storm will do plenty of damage here.

Go back to 1985 I believe it was, and look at Kate (I'm a part-timer from Ochlochnee in Thomas Co., just above you)

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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, beanskip said:

Have you ever been to Tallahassee? It is the most live oak-laden place you'll ever see -- and NONE of them are trimmed. The city prides itself on its "Canopy Roads" where trees literally form a soccer parents tunnel over the road (and power lines). A weak Cat 1 or even strong Tropical Storm will do plenty of damage here.

My wife has family there......I get it, but some of the post in here are well overly dramatic.....this thing is a long ways from being a organized hurricane with a well established wind field....the winds are very lopsided and the area of winds that are 50-60 mph  is pretty small right now....

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jojo762

jojo762

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, downeastnc said:

My wife has family there......I get it, but some of the post in here are well overly dramatic.....this thing is a long ways from being a organized hurricane with a well established wind field....the winds are very lopsided and the area of winds that are 50-60 mph  is pretty small right now....

I don't think anyone is really expecting this system to be even semi-symmetrical. A system doesn't have to be perfect to cause significant impacts. That 4-7 foot surge is going to be pretty dangerous whenever it occurs, in addition to heavy rain, isolated tornadoes, and whatever winds come from this. 

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Jackstraw

Jackstraw

Posted
Posted

The 500mb over the SE is all but absorbed, that was supposed to give it a nice tug N.  Test me test me, but I don't see anything that's going to give this thing a more northerly component than it already has.  It's already imbedded in the mean flow IMO.  I see nothing coming that could tug it N enough to land farther west than Appy, and that's a stretch . Maybe I'm trying to read between the lines and see what's going down, but I say landfall Cedar Key, 25 either way ;)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/flash-wv.html

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pcbjr

pcbjr

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Jackstraw said:

The 500mb over the SE is all but absorbed, that was supposed to give it a nice tug N.  Test me test me, but I don't see anything that's going to give this thing a more northerly component than it already has.  It's already imbedded in the mean flow IMO.  I see nothing coming that could tug it N enough to land farther west than Appy, and that's a stretch . Maybe I'm trying to read between the lines and see what's going down, but I say landfall Cedar Key, 25 either way ;)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/flash-wv.html

If I had a dollar for every ace I've drawn, I would not want to own a town the size of Cross City, or Jena, or Stienhatchee

And yes Shannon - Cedar Key could be a sore point of pride - just a few miles to ride

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lookingnorth

lookingnorth

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

The 500mb over the SE is all but absorbed, that was supposed to give it a nice tug N.  Test me test me, but I don't see anything that's going to give this thing a more northerly component than it already has.  It's already imbedded in the mean flow IMO.  I see nothing coming that could tug it N enough to land farther west than Appy, and that's a stretch . Maybe I'm trying to read between the lines and see what's going down, but I say landfall Cedar Key, 25 either way ;)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/flash-wv.html

It looks almost as though the storm is split in two.

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DTWXRISK

DTWXRISK

Posted
Posted

As this thing comes up the coast it's going to  mutatae  into  a  coastal storm or nor'easter  and that is why most of the global models show significant deepening once again it   reaxches eastern NC/  Hatteras.  At that  point it will clearly be ex tropical and pulling  cooler air from a large HIGH   to the north.  So  as the  Hermine  pulls in  cooler air on its nw  side   whole the eastern  side stays  warm/ triopical  it becomes  baroclinic ..  develop  frontal boundaries and it will no longer be tropical th
.
That being said  the 11:00 PM advisory from  NHC    with regard to  day 4-  is pretty bad.  I means its   wretched  Apparently NHC seems to be following the GFS and the HWRF  --  which  explains why their extended forecasts   track Sucks

The HWRF  is obviously NOT  the model  to use that ths point  since Hermine    will no longer be a tropical system.  The numerous flaws  with the GFS model system compunds  the problem  --  while it  true  that  the   GFS  does  stalls the system  often Middle Atlantic Coast...   the GFS model  flaws    has  it closing off   at the upper levels and stalling  much too far to the east .  


I suppose this is why th th the 11:00 PM advisory has the nor'easter or hybrid storm stalled south of New England when the obvious synoptic pattern shows  the systen stalling out east of the Delmarva.  This is supported by the  Wednesday12Z   operational European the European ENSEMBLE and the  0z Thur  NAM / WRF  which stalls  the    TC/  Noreaster   mix   at 60 to 84 hours to east of Delmarva.  It should be noted that all of these models of course have a much more refined  resolution then the   GFS   and handle oor'easter significantly better  than the HWRF 

ecmwf_z500_mslp_eus_5.png

namconus_mslp_wind_eus_53.png

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HillsdaleMIWeather

HillsdaleMIWeather

Posted
Posted

1 AM Advisory  

...HERMINE CRAWLING NORTHWARD...

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.0N 87.0W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
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