PaEasternWX Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 1 minute ago, SN_Lover said: Lowest I saw was 1003 mb. Sheer doing its work already. Shear* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Just now, WeatherFan202 said: Shear* thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 4 minutes ago, Tibet said: is that down to 1000mb? Yep, minimum is 1000 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 4 minutes ago, Tibet said: is that down to 1000mb? Yep... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 14 minutes ago, WeatherFan202 said: FL winds* 34 knot surface winds. Significant difference. Recon did find surface winds just above 50kts at around 2315Z though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 12 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: Lowest I saw was 1003 mb. Sheer doing its work already. There's a banter thread yah know. The environment is much better than the last few days, therefore it's gradually strengthening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 3 hours ago, pcbjr said: Yeah - my son just called and said he's received an email that all his classes at USF are cancelled. Good move. The entire west coast is basically getting double high tides for the next 24 to 36 hours like I feared. Have family and friends there and they are telling me it's going to be a long night and day tomorrow. I lived on IRB for 10 or 15 years (85 to 2000 I think, some years were foggy lol) and know how prone to flooding from the backside if you get double tides and a storm coming in. The The Storm of the Century caught everyone off guard with back flodding from the intracoastal and the back bays. Elena was the same way only for days. Elena was like being beat to death with a rubber chicken, tortured until everyone just laughed like Jack Nicholson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 2 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: There's a banter thread yah know. The environment is much better than the last few days, therefore it's gradually strengthening. yea, keyword there. OHC is horrible, sheer gonna go through the roof, and the entire system is missing convection altogether in 2 quadrants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 2 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: yea, keyword there. OHC is horrible, sheer gonna go through the roof, and the entire system is missing convection altogether in 2 quadrants. What are you expecting? It's a 50kt TS that has struggled mightly for the past week trying to maintain convection. It's a miracle it didn't dissipate when it was still in the Bahamas. I know the Tropical snobs are getting antsy but you just have to be patient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 50kts SFMR peak so far in the air force recon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: What are you expecting? It's a 50kt TS that has struggled mightly for the past week trying to maintain convection. It's a miracle it didn't dissipate when it was still in the Bahamas. I know the Tropical snobs are getting antsy but you just have to be patient. Yea, that part amazes me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 2 hours ago, pcbjr said: quote from one of our FL hurricane web pages (just tossing it out there FWIW given all the seeming uncertainty) It looks like the models initialized too far west of the real center. I would suspect a shift back east over time back toward the big bend. Closer to cedar key Hmmmm... ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Follow the moisture.... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Another 1000mb reading, would suggest the first was not in error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 1 minute ago, Tibet said: Another 1000mb reading, would suggest the first was not in error. extrapolated readings from flight level aren't going to be perfectly accurate. Dropsonde pressure readings are better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Pressure down to 998.8 mb per air force recon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 6 minutes ago, Tibet said: extrapolated or dropsonde? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 1 minute ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: extrapolated or dropsonde? Sorry I should have specified, that is extrapolated. BTW does anyone know what the margin of error is on the extrapolated pressures? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 36 minutes ago, Jackstraw said: Follow the moisture.... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html Agree. Looks like the thing is decoupling. Like a double E waterfall all over our back. Look for a while at the China Cat sunflower, Proud walking jingle in the midnight sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 this storm is wacked. Like it's got 2 separate Lows or something. look how long it's been sustaining those 2 separate balls of convection...like a figure 8 . the top is completely cut off from the bottom...never seen this with a tropical system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Whoa, NHC amps the max sustained wind speed to 60mph and issues hurricane warnings. Does not seem very conservative, they have to be on to something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 A Hurricane Warning is now in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 NHC now forecasts it to become a hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Now expected to become a Hurricane before landfall, storm surge estimates upped to 7 feet maximum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Do I see an "H" in that forecast cone? Will have trouble getting there if it doesn't vertically align better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 1 minute ago, SteveVa said: Whoa, NOAA amps the max sustained wind speed to 60mph and issues hurricane warnings. Does not seem very conservative, they have to be on to something That right side of the system, where the strongest convection is, is quite strong and mildly persistent. This is going to be a dangerous situation for somewhere in the big bend of florida, mainly because of the surge and given how the oceanic topography is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 1000 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2016 Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft this afternoon and evening indicate that Hermine has continued to strengthen, based on maximum 850-mb flight-level winds of 57 kt and peak SFMR surface winds of 52 kt. A recent dropsonde in the center of Hermine measured a pressure of about 998 mb, which is a decrease of 6 mb from the previous advisory. Recon fixes over the past 4 hours indicate that the estimated motion is north-northeastward or 025/09 kt. An approaching mid-tropospheric trough located over the southeastern United States and extending southward into the north-central Gulf of Mexico is expected to gradually lift out Hermine to the north-northeast tonight and Thursday, and then northeastward after 24 hours. The NHC model is in very good agreement on this developing steering flow pattern. Later in the forecast period, significant uncertainty in the track forecast remains, depending on how much the post-tropical cyclone interacts with a mid-latitude cutoff low that develops over the northeastern United States. The new NHC forecast track has been shifted slightly to the east of the previous advisory track, primarily due to the more eastward initial position determined from recent recon fixes, and lies just to the left of the consensus model TVCN. The vertical wind shear is forecast by the GFS and the ECMWF models to shift from the current west-northwesterly direction to southwesterly by 18-24 hours at about 5 to 10 kt. SSTs are expected to be near 30C. The intensity consensus IVCN again brings Hermine to hurricane strength prior to landfall and the offical forecast follows this guidance, forcing the issuance of a hurricane warning with this advisory. The predicted extratropical transition of the system is based on the global model guidance, which show the cyclone becoming embedded within a frontal zone over the eastern United States by 72 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 25.8N 87.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 26.9N 86.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 28.7N 85.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 30.7N 83.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 48H 03/0000Z 32.8N 81.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 72H 04/0000Z 37.0N 76.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 05/0000Z 39.0N 74.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 06/0000Z 39.0N 71.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 most already knew Hermine is going to be a cane. mentioned days ago, not a surprise. what is kind of a surprise, is GFS's current forecast for the system to be at 1008 right now...when it's 10 MB's stronger already. 998. So , as good and juicy as the GFS already looks, expect more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Remind me, when was the last cane landfall in FL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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