HillsdaleMIWeather Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 The NHC has upped the storm surge estimates. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. There is a danger of life-threatening inundation within the next 36 hours along the Gulf coast of Florida from Aripeka to Indian Pass. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water. Promptly follow any instructions, including evacuation orders, from local officials. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Destin to Indian Pass...1 to 3 feet Indian Pass to Chassahowitzka...4 to 6 feet Chassahowitzka to Aripeka...2 to 4 feet Aripeka to Bonita Beach...including Tampa Bay...1 to 3 feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 Another 43kt SFMR reading south of the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 Advisory has Hermine at 25.5N, but latest fix is around 24.8N....It's a broad center as they mention, but the pressure drop is relatively significant in that center fix position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 Thunderstorms are pulsing back up again at the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 Some pretty good tides in St. Pete on top of the surge and the copious amounts of rain. If the wind comes in right they could pile on top of each other, not much wiggle room for the water to move out..... 08/31 Wed 02:54 AM 1.86 H 08/31 Wed 07:41 AM 1.18 L 08/31 Wed 02:01 PM 2.62 H 08/31 Wed 08:57 PM 0.41 L 09/01 Thu 03:12 AM 1.92 H 09/01 Thu 08:23 AM 1.05 L 09/01 Thu 02:41 PM 2.55 H 09/01 Thu 09:24 PM 0.54 L 09/02 Fri 03:29 AM 2.0 H 09/02 Fri 09:03 AM 0.93 L 09/02 Fri 03:19 PM 2.46 H 09/02 Fri 09:48 PM 0.67 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 2 minutes ago, wxmx said: Advisory has Hermine at 25.5N, but latest fix is around 24.8N....It's a broad center as they mention, but the pressure drop is relatively significant. Latest burst of convection is directly over the newer LLC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 22 minutes ago, Jackstraw said: Big shift West in the NHC track also. Hmmm..... Hmmm .... we'll see after more data is ingested. But who can the weather command? Annie Beauneu from Saint Angel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 May be doing a clockwise loop-the-loop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 Who has recon link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 Just now, irishbri74 said: Who has recon link? Tropical Tidbits - Recon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 8 minutes ago, wxmx said: May be doing a clockwise loop-the-loop. That's why the "track" is no where near Bible yet (IMHO) - until there is some general sort of stability the models are just guessing with the highest mathematical probability, and who knows what the confidence interval really is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 Latest recon pass to the SE of the center, now has weaker winds than in the first pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 2 minutes ago, Morris said: Latest recon pass to the SE of the center, now has weaker winds than in the first pass. That first pass was hours ago. The strongest winds are likely in a different place than they were 3+ hours ago. Storm is forming a new center it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 3 minutes ago, Morris said: Latest recon pass to the SE of the center, now has weaker winds than in the first pass. Those folks flying up there know a lot more than I, but my question is - where is the "center"? Based on the 5:00 PM I got the impression that the NHC wasn't even sure .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 If it hasn't fixed itself yet, it's going to behave like one of these awkward, post-tropical type storms , all the way to landfall. Where the stronger winds are spreadout, hundreds of miles out. Normal tropical systems would of had convection consolidated more towards the center by now. We've seen this in years past...but seems to be happening more frequently, the last 5 years or so. Can't just blame it on the moderate shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 Up to 52kts flight level winds in latest pass to the SE. SFMR at 41kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 bayshore blvd in tampa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 4 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said: bayshore blvd in tampa Yeah - my son just called and said he's received an email that all his classes at USF are cancelled. Good move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 Hard to tell exactly, but latest convective burst appears to be over or just south of the COC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 10 minutes ago, pcbjr said: Yeah - my son just called and said he's received an email that all his classes at USF are cancelled. Good move. saw a tweet about this too - Mayor of Tampa just said he can't rule out pumping sewage into the bay if flooding overwhelms the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 7 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said: saw a tweet about this too - Mayor of Tampa just said he can't rule out pumping sewage into the bay if flooding overwhelms the system. That happens a lot during heavy rain. Most waste water systems can't handle the load. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 Pressure down to 1001 at the latest recon pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 SFMR peak of 58kts on recon. Can it be a hurricane by the morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 3 minutes ago, Morris said: SFMR peak of 58kts on recon. Can it be a hurricane by the morning? Woah. Where'd they find that? Could be erroneous. On a side note, latest 18Z HWRF develops this into a 55-65kt TS/borderline Hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 quote from one of our FL hurricane web pages (just tossing it out there FWIW given all the seeming uncertainty) It looks like the models initialized too far west of the real center. I would suspect a shift back east over time back toward the big bend. Closer to cedar key Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 RGEM and NAM in all their forms aren't meant for tropical forecasting. They have a high bias on intensity, usually a very high bias. Don't use them, use what the NHC use, the HWRF, the GFDL, the LGEM, IVCN, SHIPS and the Global Models. Even those have their relatively high error margins, but not as bad as all the stuff you are posting. I will start to delete posts referencing the NAM, RAP, HRRR, RGEM and all mesoscale models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 Recon making a fifth pass now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tater Tot Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 Starting to look rather nasty. http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E CONUS&lat=25&lon=-87&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir3.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=black Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 1000.4 mb on latest pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 1 minute ago, Tater Tot said: Starting to look rather nasty. http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E CONUS&lat=25&lon=-87&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir3.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=black Looks rather strung out and searching for itself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.